THE DOT - if this turns orange or red be alert

Thursday, December 23, 2010

Brainstorming Thursday - part1

1. Below a must read, confirms my assumptions I aklso expect the bıond markets to trigger the sell off in stocks. Munibonds are dropping sharply despite the FED manipulation


The Details Of The CitiFX Contrary Call For A Watershed Bear-Market 2011

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The report making the rounds today comes from CitiFX' Technical group which goes against the Wall Street conventional wisdom and instead of a 1,550 on the S&P forecasted by discredited permabull David Bianco, expects to see the market drop 16% by the end of next year. The punchline is that "the peak may be posted as early as the opening days of January 2011 (possibly even 3rd January as per the other 3 examples) with a down month in the region of 5%." And if a down 5% January is not enough, the firm believes that based on historical precedent, we will also see a 20% intrayear drop, and close the year 16% down. The catalysts: i) The bond market falling sharply as it did in 1977 sending yields higher and fueling inflation or supply fears or both, and ii) Europe imploding. While this could stress our view on the dollar fixed income and commodities, this dynamic still supports our bearish equity view. The report's conclusion may prove to be very prescient: "Happy holidays, get some rest. You may need it." On the other hand, with the Fed now practically solely responsible for risk asset pricing, we would not be surprised to see the Dow end 2011 at 36,000.... of course as gas hits $36/gallon, but that's irrelevant. Wealth effect forever!

Citi's two catalysts:

  • The bond market falling sharply as it did in 1977 sending yields higher and fuelling inflation or supply fears or both.
  • Europe imploding. While this could stress our view on the dollar fixed income and commodities, this dynamic still supports our bearish equity view.

Incidentally, one of these (Europe) is precisely what Scott Minerd called for in his outlook for the next 12 months. It is the lack of the other, which goes hand in hand, in Guggenheim's forecast, that made us have a little fun at Scott's expense.

Incidentally, this is the same Tom Fitzpatrick who in August 2007called for a 1987-type sell off in 2008, and uttered the following prophetic phrase: "without the Bernanke PUT we may have to entertain the idea of the Bernanke crash." Well, Tom was spot on with his call... and got way more than he bargained for.

For the full report open the link above - crucial to see

2. Another record sentiment report after the Investor Intel report from yesterday

excerpt

Difference Between AAII Bullish And Bearish Sentiment Highest Since 2004

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