Gold has again reached the grinding zone and will turn the temporary 3tripple to a break out battle at a very crucial time. Month end above 2k would give bullish signals devastating would be quarter and YE above 2k or unimaginable 2100 during buy season. Bullion boys are carrying a 140-50k short position on Comex and during the last attacks on 2k they increased up to 250k shorts to defend plus ETF shorts but this time since they expanded the OPS into Miners as well ( made a lot of money with Miners at record lows despite high Gold) they are facing a tough situation. So far Silver supports them as last times Gold was so high Silver was rather close to 30 now being 24 at or below most Silver Miners AISC they still can limit the advances. Once Gold goes north 2100 Silver will follow and even start to overtake especially after taking out 26 and Miners will explode higher while Silver goes 35 and Gold to 2400-500 silver could reach 50. so far neither HF have joined the long side nor FMs as year-end rather has its own dynamics. Most will rather defend what they made instead of taking new risks hence the big rush in will be in Jan. rather for FMs. Gold itself is another ball game as its Tier1 capital now and many banks will tend to increase their Gold holdings to show a stronger balance 'cheat'. Bullion will have a hard time to keep prices below 2k in Dec with almost no chance in Q1 of 2024

 Bond crash in a 5 wave pattern about to find  its bottom around 110, ideally would briefly go below Boll and reverse in Oct with a bullish divergence pattern creating an ABC correction in the range 105-130. While the FED will pause the curve inversion will normalize in 2024. Since the long term uptrend is broken expect more downside in the 2nd half of 24 as we had for the elections turbulences in financial markets are to be expected starting Q2 24 again. In Q4 of this year bank failures are likely which might lead to some dovish FED adjustments but no rate cuts yet.

 Gold as I had written back in May, Bullion would try to paint a triple top pattern which they did so far despite China premium of 5%. Strategically they did in right before the 'Golden Week' holiday seems ironic but  retail China buys the most Gold in the days prior which might explain why China did not intervene as people got their Gold relatively cheaper. Parallel Silver was also turned down as China accumulates Silver by trashing it as long as moronic Bullion banks play along knowing that game is soon over as we head for buying season Q4/Q1 which naturally is a strong time for PMs. Golden week Shanghai  is closed but Hong Kong except Monday is open hence they can take advantage of lower prices. RSI and other indicators are already extreme as we are below daily and weekly Bolls which is capitulation buy territory at least for a strong bounce. As Mars switches signs from Libra (weak for PMs to Scorpio (strong for PMs) early Oct this will create an good opportunity - risk is down to 1800, upside minimum 1900 extended 1950 for Oct.

 Silver the good news is that Bullion went long like at the low in Aug last year. COT says they are neutral but Fridays rise in OI by 3k rather increases the chances they are long around 3k while CTAs were short 4k and may have added 3k. they made a dramatic shift last week with 16k in a capitulation. Well in 2022 Bullion went as high as 30k longs at some point while CTAs were massively short. The coming week I rather see an upside bias but the week of the BRICs summit volatility will rise and another downside move may add to the Venus Rx choppiness before we have the floor to start the substantial up move in Sep as I also expect a brief bounce for stocks next week followed by more downside into 4th Sep Venus stationary. Uranus going stationary 29th will add some vol to the markets.

 GSR (Gold/Silver Ratio) reached the 84 level and should top ot around this level til Friday though basically we can go sideways til end of month. Except the BRICS summit 22-24 may add volatility short term but the Mercury stationary on 23rd suggests some confusion around their announcement.Early Sep we can expect a decisive break below 79 and starting a new cycle towards 65 for 2023. 2024 should bring a drop towards 50

Silver brainstorming

 Silver in earlier Bullion smash campaigns went  far lower and is now more resilient and sticky which rather implicates a bull campaign is due. Global rising industrial demand gives underlying strength and GSR around 82 shows its relative low valuation hence upside potential. Expect a break above the 25.50 level in Sep with a quick rise towards 30 after 26.50 and 28 hurdles are cleared. Til 15th rather upside momentum with heliocentric Mercury but overall choppiness as Venus retrograde lasts til 5th Sep which should be strength relief point for PMs in the following months and years. For now the rising yields have been a drag while mining stocks are undermined by general stock weakness we can expect them to outperform in September, early sign of resilence should be followed by strength once Gold trades above 2k and Silver above 26 creates strong demand by FMs followed by retailers above 30.

QQQ daily brainstorming

 QQQ turned down for the 7-10% correction within Venus retrograde with fund managers almost ar record level long and the AI hype the tree needs to be shaken. Now we closed first gap down to 372 sitting on a support line wğth imminent follow through next week closing second gap to 368 and a target of 360/1 as Venus will square Uranus 9/10th expect a short term volatile bounce towards the 370 level again with follow through towards the 340/2 target for end of Aug. Starting Monday we will have a heliocentric Mercury in Sagittarius til 17th which is beneficial for Precious Metals (PMs) since leading up to BRICs summit and currencies will rise against Dollar. Usually as it represent optimism also stocks could benefit at least half way as we also have a Venus conjunct Sun 10/11th  stocks should go up in a brief counter rally as between 9-14th 2/3 different pattern suggest up-days in very volatile manner. Make no mistake the9/10th days will be very volatile and a sharp drop followed by a reversal situation may describe it best. ODTE crowd may think the correction is over but thats just a trap to burn them in the next wave down as the following week Sun will square Uranus 16th which matches the end of the Mercury phase and stocks turn down again taking PM stocks with them initially now QQQ will be heading for the 340 target and as Mercury goes stationary during the BRICs summit 23rd we will have some confusion about their declaration, mixed signals. Mercury retrograde is tricky for trading as it gives many false signals and breaks from 23rd Aug - 15th Sep. More next week

SPX daily

 SPX has rolled over close to double top levels and will close the gap in the 4450 area to test the support area 4380-4420 as an initial impulse wave down with indicators oversold once we touch that area. As next week at the 9th also has an exact Venus /Uranus square a volatile bounce could go as high as 4525 before the next leg down starts which should break below the wedge support at 4430. Timewise the correction should last til 5th Sep the end of Venus retrograde but as Mercury retrograde overlays the timeframe the effects could be extended til 15th even.