Gold has again reached the grinding zone and will turn the temporary 3tripple to a break out battle at a very crucial time. Month end above 2k would give bullish signals devastating would be quarter and YE above 2k or unimaginable 2100 during buy season. Bullion boys are carrying a 140-50k short position on Comex and during the last attacks on 2k they increased up to 250k shorts to defend plus ETF shorts but this time since they expanded the OPS into Miners as well ( made a lot of money with Miners at record lows despite high Gold) they are facing a tough situation. So far Silver supports them as last times Gold was so high Silver was rather close to 30 now being 24 at or below most Silver Miners AISC they still can limit the advances. Once Gold goes north 2100 Silver will follow and even start to overtake especially after taking out 26 and Miners will explode higher while Silver goes 35 and Gold to 2400-500 silver could reach 50. so far neither HF have joined the long side nor FMs as year-end rather has its own dynamics. Most will rather defend what they made instead of taking new risks hence the big rush in will be in Jan. rather for FMs. Gold itself is another ball game as its Tier1 capital now and many banks will tend to increase their Gold holdings to show a stronger balance 'cheat'. Bullion will have a hard time to keep prices below 2k in Dec with almost no chance in Q1 of 2024

 Bond crash in a 5 wave pattern about to find  its bottom around 110, ideally would briefly go below Boll and reverse in Oct with a bullish divergence pattern creating an ABC correction in the range 105-130. While the FED will pause the curve inversion will normalize in 2024. Since the long term uptrend is broken expect more downside in the 2nd half of 24 as we had for the elections turbulences in financial markets are to be expected starting Q2 24 again. In Q4 of this year bank failures are likely which might lead to some dovish FED adjustments but no rate cuts yet.

 Gold as I had written back in May, Bullion would try to paint a triple top pattern which they did so far despite China premium of 5%. Strategically they did in right before the 'Golden Week' holiday seems ironic but  retail China buys the most Gold in the days prior which might explain why China did not intervene as people got their Gold relatively cheaper. Parallel Silver was also turned down as China accumulates Silver by trashing it as long as moronic Bullion banks play along knowing that game is soon over as we head for buying season Q4/Q1 which naturally is a strong time for PMs. Golden week Shanghai  is closed but Hong Kong except Monday is open hence they can take advantage of lower prices. RSI and other indicators are already extreme as we are below daily and weekly Bolls which is capitulation buy territory at least for a strong bounce. As Mars switches signs from Libra (weak for PMs to Scorpio (strong for PMs) early Oct this will create an good opportunity - risk is down to 1800, upside minimum 1900 extended 1950 for Oct.

 Silver the good news is that Bullion went long like at the low in Aug last year. COT says they are neutral but Fridays rise in OI by 3k rather increases the chances they are long around 3k while CTAs were short 4k and may have added 3k. they made a dramatic shift last week with 16k in a capitulation. Well in 2022 Bullion went as high as 30k longs at some point while CTAs were massively short. The coming week I rather see an upside bias but the week of the BRICs summit volatility will rise and another downside move may add to the Venus Rx choppiness before we have the floor to start the substantial up move in Sep as I also expect a brief bounce for stocks next week followed by more downside into 4th Sep Venus stationary. Uranus going stationary 29th will add some vol to the markets.

 GSR (Gold/Silver Ratio) reached the 84 level and should top ot around this level til Friday though basically we can go sideways til end of month. Except the BRICS summit 22-24 may add volatility short term but the Mercury stationary on 23rd suggests some confusion around their announcement.Early Sep we can expect a decisive break below 79 and starting a new cycle towards 65 for 2023. 2024 should bring a drop towards 50

Silver brainstorming

 Silver in earlier Bullion smash campaigns went  far lower and is now more resilient and sticky which rather implicates a bull campaign is due. Global rising industrial demand gives underlying strength and GSR around 82 shows its relative low valuation hence upside potential. Expect a break above the 25.50 level in Sep with a quick rise towards 30 after 26.50 and 28 hurdles are cleared. Til 15th rather upside momentum with heliocentric Mercury but overall choppiness as Venus retrograde lasts til 5th Sep which should be strength relief point for PMs in the following months and years. For now the rising yields have been a drag while mining stocks are undermined by general stock weakness we can expect them to outperform in September, early sign of resilence should be followed by strength once Gold trades above 2k and Silver above 26 creates strong demand by FMs followed by retailers above 30.

QQQ daily brainstorming

 QQQ turned down for the 7-10% correction within Venus retrograde with fund managers almost ar record level long and the AI hype the tree needs to be shaken. Now we closed first gap down to 372 sitting on a support line wğth imminent follow through next week closing second gap to 368 and a target of 360/1 as Venus will square Uranus 9/10th expect a short term volatile bounce towards the 370 level again with follow through towards the 340/2 target for end of Aug. Starting Monday we will have a heliocentric Mercury in Sagittarius til 17th which is beneficial for Precious Metals (PMs) since leading up to BRICs summit and currencies will rise against Dollar. Usually as it represent optimism also stocks could benefit at least half way as we also have a Venus conjunct Sun 10/11th  stocks should go up in a brief counter rally as between 9-14th 2/3 different pattern suggest up-days in very volatile manner. Make no mistake the9/10th days will be very volatile and a sharp drop followed by a reversal situation may describe it best. ODTE crowd may think the correction is over but thats just a trap to burn them in the next wave down as the following week Sun will square Uranus 16th which matches the end of the Mercury phase and stocks turn down again taking PM stocks with them initially now QQQ will be heading for the 340 target and as Mercury goes stationary during the BRICs summit 23rd we will have some confusion about their declaration, mixed signals. Mercury retrograde is tricky for trading as it gives many false signals and breaks from 23rd Aug - 15th Sep. More next week

SPX daily

 SPX has rolled over close to double top levels and will close the gap in the 4450 area to test the support area 4380-4420 as an initial impulse wave down with indicators oversold once we touch that area. As next week at the 9th also has an exact Venus /Uranus square a volatile bounce could go as high as 4525 before the next leg down starts which should break below the wedge support at 4430. Timewise the correction should last til 5th Sep the end of Venus retrograde but as Mercury retrograde overlays the timeframe the effects could be extended til 15th even.

Declaration of war against banksters

Starting Monday if you want to read on you will have to use a different blog since this one still will be blocked when I am back.


http://behindthematrix.wordpress.com




Declaration of war via peaceful cyber warriors

Hacker Group Anonymous Brings Peaceful Revolution To America: Will Engage In Civil Disobedience Until Bernanke Steps Down

Submitted by Tyler Durden on 03/12/2011 21:30 -0500

• Bank of America
 
• Ben Bernanke
 
• Federal Reserve
 
• Global Economy
 
• International Monetary Fund
• Morgan Stanley
 
• World Bank
 

The world's most (in)famous hacker group - Anonymous - known for effectively shutting down their hacking nemesis security firm (with clients such as Morgan Stanley and, unfortunately for them, Bank of America)-HBGary, advocating the cause of Wikileaks, and the threat made by one of its members that evidence of fraud by Bank of America will be released on Monday, has just launched communication #1 in its Operation "Empire State Rebellion." The goal - engage in "a relentless campaign of non-violent, peaceful, civil disobedience" until Ben Bernanke steps down and the "Primary Dealers within the Federal Reserve banking system be broken up and held accountable for rigging markets and destroying the global economy effective immediately."

The Anonymous manifesto:

• We are a decentralized non-violent resistance movement, which seeks to restore the rule of law and fight back against the organized criminal class.
• One-tenth of one percent of the population has consolidated wealth in unprecedented fashion and launched an all-out economic war against 99.9% of the population.
• We are not affiliated with either wing of the two-party oligarchy. We seek an end to the corrupted two-party system by ending the campaign finance and lobbying racket.
• Above all, we aim to break up the global banking cartel centered at the Federal Reserve, International Monetary Fund, Bank of International Settlement and World Bank.
• We demand that the primary dealers within the Federal Reserve banking system be broken up and held accountable for rigging markets and destroying the global economy, effective immediately.
• As a first sign of good faith we demand Ben Bernanke step down as Federal Reserve chairman.
• Until our demands are met and a rule of law is restored, we will engage in a relentless campaign of non-violent, peaceful, civil disobedience.
• In our next communication we will announce Operation Empire State Rebellion.

Glorious Chairman Ben - our free advice to you: change your e-mail password stat...

4.927535

Your rating: None Average: 4.9 (69 votes)

SPX update

SPX is breaking below the trend support and the market closes almost exactly on the 55MA at 1295 which is a sign of trouble as the NDX closed clearly below. As said earlier the countertrends whenever weekly golden crosses occur are a regular pattern as the 50 week MA is crossing the 200MA the coming week Keep.selling any strength from now on adding to the shorts as the NDX has activated the H&S pattern. The SPX has already lost 4% from the top since the Jupiter Saturn heliocentric opposition and last time it went for a 25% drop in 1990. I am not sure yet how low we go this time as Hedge Funds are long at as we can see for Gold right now a little liquidation has started but we are far away from any oversold market right now but 1275 is a good short term support but we should expect a drop to the 200 MA over time as it represents a 50% drop from the summer lows. The FED will fight the bears fierrceful as if they also loose the stock game they become obsolete and Wallstreet will be in big trouble if another crash occurs - ultimate trouble.

Thursday brainstorming

1. Well China exports did the trick but its rather the imports I think as commodity prices have exploded - anyway markets are breaking below supports for the NDX and SPX ( later more on that).
I even heard that US Intel expects Gadaffi to win the civil war but that might just be an excuse for Sarkozy's suggestion for a surgical air strike on Libya seems very hypocritical now as the protest wave arrives fully in Saudi Arabia - Saudis opened fire to day which is serious trouble for Obama as his allies are now attacking civilians as well how can they argue that attacking Gadaffi is any better than Saudi's?


excerpt

Saudi Police Open Fire At Protest Rally

Submitted by Tyler Durden on 03/10/2011 13:25 -0500

• Crude
 

AP reports that the Saudi police open fire at protesters in Qatif after government warns demonstrators it will not tolerate protests. In other words, the shootings will continue until morale is restored. Look for crude to go antigravitational here.

2. Another good news for bears is that there are fewer of them as more have capitulated

excerpt

NYSE Short Interest Declines Again, Just In Time For Market Drop

Submitted by Tyler Durden on 03/10/2011 10:58 -0500

• Ben Bernanke
 
• New York Stock Exchange
 
• NYSE Short Interest
 
• Russell 2000
 
• Short Interest
 

While not at the lows from January, when NYSE short interest hit a multi year low of 12.4 billion shares, the just released update shows that into the end of February, total short interest once again declined from the Mid-February dead cat bounce which saw it at 12.8 billion, with the latest print at 12.6 billion shares. And now that the market is finally realizing that there is a several hundred point vacuum underneath if indeed there is even a brief break in Fed monetization, the number of shorts that may opt to cover on the market's way down is far lower than in recent history. Of course, this is what happens when everyone bets on the Bernanke Put and said Put starts to sputter, which simply means that the Fed chairman, who traditionally equates economic growth with the Russell 2000 is more boxed into a corner, than ever: QE3 will second gold to 2,000 and oil to 1,50. No QE3 will send the S&P to sub 1,000. Place your bets.

brainstorming wednesday

1. Gadaffi did not go for the offer and keeps bombing the rebels that can have 2 reasons - first would be he wants to sit down for negotiations with better cards as he wants to keep the wealth he has stolen from the state to some degree besides his life. The second more likely to his profile and actual astro pattern is that he feels confident to keep his position with help from China and Russia - which he will not at the end because the benign pattern is only til June ( which is rather the max. he can get from this civil war ). China on the other hand is not too happy about rising oil prices as it fuels a problem they already have at hand the inflation spike. Russia will enjoy the situation very much as they can max out their profits on oil.


excerpt



Forces loyal to Libyan leader Muammar Gaddafi have launched new air raids on the oil city of Ras Lanuf and are closing in on the western town of Az Zawiyah.
Fresh reports of rockets landing on Ras Lanuf came on Wednesday, leading to a growing concern for the city's gas facilities, which if bombed, could spell disaster for people living in the area.
Jacky Rowland, Al Jazeera's correspondent in Ras Lanuf, said fighter jets were circling overhead and the rebels were firing back.
"What we are hearing is intense and repeated attacks by Gaddafi's airplanes on the rebels," she said.
"The air force is concentrating on the big junctions at the entrance to the town. The fact that it’s such consistent black smoke could well means there is oil underneath it. It is continuing to burn.
"The opposition fighters are extremely panicked."
Khaled Kwafi, a member of the opposition forces based on the outskirts of the city, told Al Jazeera that people were killed and injured in the attack.
"An hour ago we saw warplanes in the sky. We heard very huge explosions and lots of smoke. Our people tried to go there but they were stopped," he said.
"We heard there are people killed and injured there."
Forces loyal to Gaddafi are also reported to have surrounded the rebel-held western town of Az Zawiyah, close to the capital Tripoli.
The Libyan government claims it has taken back the coastal town of Bin Jawad after heavy shelling there.
Meanwhile, in his second televised speech in as many days, Gaddafi once again alleged involvement of foreigners in the rebellion against his more than 41-year-old rule.
In an address on state TV early on Wednesday he warned of a plot to colonise Libya. As proof, he said his security forces had captured several foreigners during a raid on Monday.
"Yesterday, the mosque that the security forces regained power over, they had in this mosque, they had weapons and alcohol as well. Some of them come from Afghanistan, some of them come from Egypt, some of them come from Algeria, just to misguide our children," Gaddafi said.


2. That Bill Gross has completely sold out of Treasuries is rather alarming in the current context and proves that Government lies about inflation as stated many times. He seems to think as I assumed earlier as well that rather bonds will drag down equities. Therefor he is high on cash because opportunity will present itself once the process is triggered but first world bond markets have to price in inflation which is an ugly event once it starts.


excerpt

Exclusive: Bill Gross Dumps All Treasuries, Brings Total "Government Related" Holdings To Zero, Flees To Cash - No QE3?

Submitted by Tyler Durden on 03/09/2011 09:02 -0500

• Bill Gross
 
• Mortgage Backed Securities
 
• PIMCO
 
• Quantitative Easing
• Total Return Fund
 

And many thought Bill Gross was only posturing when he said he is getting the hell out of dodge. Based on still to be publicly reported data by Pimco's flagship Total Return Fund, the world's largest bond fund, in the month of January, has taken its bond holdings to zero(and -14% on a Duration Weighted Exposure basis). The offset, not surprisingly, is cash. After sporting $28.6 billion in "government related" securities, TRF dropped to $0.0, while its cash holdings surged from $11.9 billion to a whopping $54.5 billion (based on total TRF holdings of $236.9 billion as of February 28).This is the most cash the flagship fund has ever held, and the lowest amount in Treasury holdings since January 2009 before it was made clear that the Fed was going to adjust QE1 to include Treasurys in addition to Mortgage Backed Securities. PIMCO's Treasury holdings peaked in June 2010 at $147.4 billion and have declined consistently ever since. And while we expected that the spike in MBS holdings (at times on margin) was indicative of an expectation that QE3 would monetize mortgage backed securities, the ongoing decline in that asset class now leads us to believe that Bill Gross is now convinced there will be no QE3 at all, at least based on his just putting his money where his monthly pen is! And if Bill Gross, the most connected person to the upcoming actions by the Fed, believes there is no more quantitative easing, it is really time to get the hell out of dodge in all security classes - bonds, and most certainly, equities.

brainstorming tuesday

1. We have an interesting situation at hand short-term as Gadaffi got a 72h option to get out without prosecution card from the opposition but one condition is that any military action has to stop first. It is in so far  interesting as we will have a 48h benign market situation at hand by an Astro patterm before on the 11th Uranus enters Aries. This is the only realistic option out for Gadaffi if international institutions do refrain from prosecution as well which would make it a likely scenario for a descent thinking man but he is rather eccentric to say the least and may bet that China and Russia keep the Nato away. So far the scenario we could repeat that consolidation pattern seems to work out again after testing yesterdays lows market has turned up again with banks as the leading sector

Rebels set demands for Gaddafi exit

Head of Libyan opposition says Gaddafi 'will not be pursued' if he quits within 72 hours and stops bombing countrymen. Last Modified: 08 Mar 2011 14:36 GMT Email Article Print Article Share Article Send Feedback

Rebels will not pursue Libyan leader Muammar Gaddafi over crimes they say he has committed if he steps down from his post in the next 72 hours, the head of the rebel National Libyan Council has told Al Jazeera. "If he leaves Libya immediately, during 72 hours, and stops the bombardment, we as Libyans will step back from pursuing him for crimes," Mustafa Abdel Jalil, head of the opposition National Council, told Al Jazeera on Tuesday. He said the deadline would not be extended beyond 72 hours.

NDX update

Basically we are repeating exactly the same consolidation in those ovals and the low was so far just to the previous one again. The overall picture is a bit different though as we had close by already a consolidation this could become rather a Head & Shoulder with the support line being the neckline but we need to break below the 2308 support to have a good indication that the neckline will be challenged and even broken. Otherwise we might just turn upside again but with the latest development that Obama is considering a military option the odds are we test the neckline this week as a war is not priced in yet. Although it will not be a fullscale operation anyway as Iraq or Afghanistan. The target of that H&S would be 130 points below down to the 2170 area. The second test of the 55 day MA is another difference to the earlier consolidation and shows implied weakness of the market. Within 24h we will have a good clue how to go from here - astrology also rather hints to an imminent escalation.

part 2

2. The escalating situation in Libya drags down markets despite merger Monday. War likely scenario is getting priced in as Uranus is about to enter Aries - im astrology the 0 degree of Aries is a very important degree and can trigger crises if hit by a challenging planet like Uranus and what makes the whole thing even more challenging is the square it has with the North Node. Plus Saturn makes a square to the USA sun which has a natal Sun Saturn square hence they are and will be challenged big time by the current situation.


excerpt

From Reuters: 

U.S. President Barack Obama said on Monday that NATO was considering military options in response to the situation in Libya.

Obama, speaking after talks with visiting Australian Prime Minister Julia Gillard, said the two countries agreed that violence by the Libyan government against its people was unacceptable.

White House Provides Update On Operation "Nobel Peace Prize" - "Use Of Ground Troops Not At Top Of List"

Submitted by Tyler Durden on 03/07/2011 12:56 -0500

• Reuters
 
• White House
 

Earlier, we reported that Obama mentioned that NATO is currently evaluating military options against Libya. Now, White House spokesman Carney adds some additional color on what Operation "Nobel Peace Prize", aka the invasion of Libya, will look like. From Reuters: "White House says no option removed from table on Libya response but use of ground troops not at top of list."Does that mean air force intervention is at the top? Luckily Zero Hedge readers know very well that the USS Enterprise is now peacefully sailing in the Mediterranean, awaiting for its moment in the sun. And on the use of the SPR: "White House says no specific price point would trigger the use of oil reserve; the issue is oil supply disruption." But what supply disruption: wasn't the spin up to now that Libya is largely irrelevant for the US from a supply perspective?

3. America going for bankruptcy in faster pace despite the budget cut charade.

February $223 Billion Budget Deficit Largest Ever

Submitted by Tyler Durden on 03/07/2011 13:04 -0500

Well, it's one way to start a deficit cutting scramble. Washington Times reports that the preliminary number for the February deficit, which will formally be released by the FMS shortly, is $223 billion: this is the largest single month deficit in history! So much for prudent budgets and all that. At least the number can only get better from here. Unless, of course, it gets much, much worse, and rates continue creeping higher, resulting in 30% of total revenues being dedicated to paying gross interest, as was previously discussed on Zero Hedge. Then 40%. Then 50%... One gets the picture.

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• Read more

Brainstorming monday

A Turkish court order closed down all blogspots from Google because a cabel TV provider was unhappy with 2 blogs showing soccer matches. Thats why I could not write for a few days - since I am out of the country on a a business trip for a week you can see posts on this one. Once I am back you will have to switch to my wordpress blog which still works. No need to say that the internet will be under frequent attack from now on on a global scale even as Pluto will be square Uranus for 3 years and the ruling powers will abuse the power they have and run into fascism again since that was alos fired up 84 years ago when Uranus was in Aries the last time and Pluto in Capricorn is anyway a very rigid force of power and governments tendency to totalitarianism which we last time had 240 years ago during the independence war of the USA but obviously with a different technology. This is quite a combination and what we see inthe Arab countries is just the foreplay of things to come i the next 4 years as this both very extreme energies will clash and a global war is very likely.


1. Back to the markets the NEW MOON kicked off another upside spike with APPLE as mentioned before the main driver as it will make a new high in the 360-70 region before it tops out in about 2 weeks as we need 2 new weekly highs to complete the count to 13. The IPAD 2 is not a big improvement compared to the new Android tablets hiting the market this spring and as soon as honeycomb has the final version ready in one month. We are building a volatile top as anticipated and will have diverging indices as the tech segment might outperform and banks likely underperform. Furthermore retail keeps rushing in which was the target of the bull campaign to unload the stuff on them which takes some time and is call distribution as they need to sell them while creating the illusion the market will even rise further they can not afford to have disruptions but at the same time the QE2 will come to an end in June which is about the time frame they have. Still the Middle East development is a big risk as it can escalate easily thats why the  western governments hold back still as a full scale intervention could destroy the bull spirit. On March 11th when Uranus enters Aries things in the Middle East will rather become more intense and we will repeat a pattern we had back in 1928 when Jupiter and Uranus were both in Aries the difference though is that Saturn is opposite which is rather a disturbing factor which will become exact on the 28th.
Jupiter in Aries which happens every 12 years created benign factors overall but always has a sharp correction in the mid term area except for 1987 which even created a big crash but that would be an isolated view as the interaction of all 10-12 stars and asteroids has to be considered. Uranus in Aries last time 1927-34 created even a depression after a big upside run the destructive forces were even bigger. This Uranus will later this year gear into a square with Pluto for 3 years as mentioned before and will active very destructive forces with the sign placements both have. At some point this rally will end in a bloodbath which is also quite obvious from the fundamental situation as the world is as broke as never before and just keeps the deadman walking money printing procedure as long as it gets before the situation will escalate and the elite will create a global war to get rid of the bad debts.

tuesday brainstorming

1. The middle east is going to spiral into a full fledged trouble zone as Uranus is about to enter Aries which will make revolutionary forces to be much more forceful and gain more momentum from unexpected angles. For Iran its the perfect storm and they will be with China on support as is the Bankster gang of Rothschilds are as well. Both can gain new resources in oil once all dictators are eliminated they buy of any new ruling elite. Still a dangoerous game as 2 opposing parties go for a different outcome of the same basic event.  
The FED will have a hard time to keep up their Poınzi game - even the master Ponzi-man Madoff called it an disgusting event from prison which bares quites some irony. On the other hand they have almost reached the target as the name of every bull campaign is to unload it on the reatil market at the top and the fall for the pressure the FED setup with high inflation and now interest paid they jump on the ever rising stockmarket.
The weakest foreign policy yteam for a long time Obama / Clinton are overwhelmed and lack any leadership in this historic events as they see the dictators USA supported for the benefited of controlled oil supply in place are dismantled for what they are and the 'evil' islamic terrorists turn out to be rather the better democrats as the original spirit America was founded on. America deployed the same strategies as the Brit empire did on Americans before the Independance war.Saudies sending tanks to Bahrain is no different than Saddam invading Kuweit in my book how weird things have become as Saudis are scared to death they might be next.


excerpt

Silver Hits Fresh Post Hunt Brother High Of $34.43 On News Saudi Has Sent Tanks To Bahrain

Submitted by Tyler Durden on 03/01/2011 07:12 -0500

• Middle East
 
• Newspaper
 
• Saudi Arabia
 

If RIA Novosti's update on the Middle East escalation is correct, the Middle East's worst kept secret, that Saudi Arabia would interfere militarily in Bahrain before the country fell, has just been confirmed. From RIA: "Saudi Arabia has sent dozens of tanks to Bahrain, where anti-government protests continue for about two weeks, Egypt's Al-Masry Al-Youm newspaper said on Tuesday. Eyewitnesses reported seeing "15 tank carriers carrying two tanks each heading towards Bahrain" along the 25-km King Fahd causeway, which links the small island nation of Bahrain to Saudi Arabia." And while nobody expects the DXY to do much if anything on this news, now that the dollar is irrelevant in the FX realm, the same can not be said about silver. Silver just hit $34.43 minutes ago, the highest print in the last 31 years.

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• 33 comments
 
• Read more

2. Hyperinflatin despite all denial in full gear

From now on a bigger crash of bond markets is just a matter of time but not optional as central banks are robbing the Mainstreet class by keeping  doctored inflation numbers and and interest rates at grave low levels to create profits for banksters.

excerpt 

Factory input costs leapt across the globe in February, the latest sign of rising inflationary pressures, while euro zone manufacturing grew at its fastest in nearly 10 years, surveys showed on Tuesday.

British manufacturing also grew strongly, at its fastest pace in nearly two decades, and Indian factory growth accelerated. But in China, where the authorities have raised rates and bank reserve requirements multiple times since last year, factory growth slipped to its slowest pace in six months.

Overall, the February purchasing managers' indexes provide the latest evidence of growing inflationary pressure from a sharp rise in commodity prices. Crude oil prices hit 2-1/2 year highs last week on supply concerns after uprisings in Libya.

"With the latest surge in commodity prices yet to fully feed through into consumer prices, inflation could well climb further in the next few months," said Martin van Vliet at ING.

The output price index in the 17-nation euro zone hit a record high for the survey, which was conducted February 11-21 before oil prices spiked again last week.

SPX update

We are clearly in this trading channel and have recently challenged the resistance level and testing the imminent uptrend since Aug. last week. It still survived the first attack but should try once again even this but more likely next week with a positive drop below. The Apple recovery is one of the factors plus the month end window dressing but even more so the return of the retail investors to the stock-markets this year. We have a weekly Golden Cross in the DOW and about to in the SPX which ironically is most of the time an indicator for an imminent counter-move of at least 5%.. We have a little time window of 2-3 days where Venus will be in a benign sextile to Uranus while it moves into a new sign (Aquarius) which is again a perfect timing of Apple to launch a new product ( might not be a coincidence at all) which could drive Apple stocks to the 360 levels once again.SPX could test the 1350 level before turning down within this context as we now enter month 7 count with a 13 which means that the top could take a few more weeks to be finished. but with a 10% correction in between as the bigger tops have this wild distribution patterns. As the FED and the other banksters keep the ponzi-rally going with an unprecedented liquidity infusion some indicators seem to be irrelevant but its rather more a matter of delay and rather worse outcome.

brainstorming Monday

1. Was a bit premature to say that the uptrend was broken for the SPX as we challenged it for 2 days but managed to turn around at the 1300 support. Well as you will say later today this volatile top is going t be a little more tricky as Apple messes around again to the upside with IPAD 2 being announced on Wednesday - it closed the gap and trades above 350 again. Where is a chance for new highs in case of Apple anyway even the Tech indices may make minor new highs this week - more on that ay the index updates.


The FED creates the ultimate bubble and if they do not follow up with QE3 markets will crash anyway but even if they come with another round if inflating markets a Dollar crash might harm stocks as well as the FED digs America into its own grave and another round of Ponzi scam might be to much of poison. Right now they seem to have succeeded anyway as retail rushes in to buy all those bubbly stocks and the rate of change for Apple products will not produce more buyers as no one can refresh his gadget on a yearly basis but Apple can still steal a bit more from classic PC consumers but that is already priced in around 360.


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	MONDAY, FEBRUARY 28, 2011
	INVESTOR SENTIMENT READINGS High bullish readings in the Consensus stock index or in the Market Vane stock index usually are signs of Market tops; low ones, market bottoms. Last Week 2 Weeks Ago. 3 Weeks Ago Consensus Index Consensus Bullish Sentiment 75% 74% 71% Source: Consensus Inc., P.O. Box 520526,Independence, Mo. Historical data available at             (800) 383-1441      . editor@consensus-inc.com AAII Index Bullish 36.6% 46.6% 49.4% Bearish 36.1 25.6 26.9 Neutral 27.2 27.9 23.7 Source: American Association of Individual Investors, 625 N. Michigan Ave., Chicago, Ill. 60611 (312) 280-0170. Market Vane Bullish Consensus 64% 67% 67% Source: Market Vane, P.O. Box 90490, Pasadena, CA 91109 (626) 395-7436. FC Market Sentiment Indicator 57.3% 57.3% 57.0% Source: First Coverage 260 Franklin St., Suite 900 Boston, MA 02110-3112             (617) 303-0180      . info@firstcoverage.com FC Market Sentiment is a proprietary indicator derived from actionable sell-side trade ideas sent by the sell-side to their buy-side clients over the First Coverage platform. Over 1,000 institutional sales people at more than 250 firms participate on the First Coverage platform and have contributed hundreds of thousands of ideas since inception. Each Idea is associated with a ticker or sector and is tagged bullish or bearish by the creator. This data is aggregated at the sector, industry and market level. The FC Market Sentiment score ranges from 0-100 (0=most bearish, 50=neutral, and 100=most bullish) and represents a completely objective, real-time view into what advice the sell-side is providing to their buy-side clients Citigroup Panic/Euphoria Model 2. Besides volatility with now get SKEW from the CBOE which is a very good indicator combined with VIX. We have now reached the same setup as in late April 2010 before the Flash Crash and correction. excerpt It's A Skewed, Skewed World Submitted by Tyler Durden on 02/23/2011 18:23 -0500 Ben Bernanke   From Credit Trader CBOEs recent introduction of the SKEW Index brings the realities of the options market (and real fear indexes) to retail investor's eyes. With so much attention paid to the VIX (the anachronsitic FEAR index) and especially its dropping over the last few months, investors are led to believe that risk is reducing but lo and behold, as many Pros know, the cost of protecting against a much more serious drop (or tail event) has increased quite notably with out-of-the-money options vols rising notably. The chart below shows this quite clearly as VIX (At-the-money vol) ebbs away (red arrows) as the day-to-day vol of more 'normal' mark-to-market movements is culled thanks to the liquidity fueled effervescence, the rise in out of the money (or crisis/event risk) vol has risen dramatically (white arrows). This can only go on so long as vol arbitrageurs will creep up the moneyness curve (to hedge the tail risk) and eventually impact the ATM. This happened in early 2010 and is happening again currently. The recent moves in the major credit indices also fits with this world view as any smarter-than-the-average bear capital structure arbitrageur knows that the skew (and specifically the out of the money vol market) has a much better relationship with credit than the near-the-money. One other potential way to think of this (hattip to Artemis recent article on this) is that the skew better represents the real market value of the Bernanke Put (i.e. how much is the market pricing in the never-ending story of a Fed-provided safety net) - perhaps notable that the SKEW began to rise very shortly after Jackson Hole and the QE2 plan came online.