Silver the good news is that Bullion went long like at the low in Aug last year. COT says they are neutral but Fridays rise in OI by 3k rather increases the chances they are long around 3k while CTAs were short 4k and may have added 3k. they made a dramatic shift last week with 16k in a capitulation. Well in 2022 Bullion went as high as 30k longs at some point while CTAs were massively short. The coming week I rather see an upside bias but the week of the BRICs summit volatility will rise and another downside move may add to the Venus Rx choppiness before we have the floor to start the substantial up move in Sep as I also expect a brief bounce for stocks next week followed by more downside into 4th Sep Venus stationary. Uranus going stationary 29th will add some vol to the markets.

 GSR (Gold/Silver Ratio) reached the 84 level and should top ot around this level til Friday though basically we can go sideways til end of month. Except the BRICS summit 22-24 may add volatility short term but the Mercury stationary on 23rd suggests some confusion around their announcement.Early Sep we can expect a decisive break below 79 and starting a new cycle towards 65 for 2023. 2024 should bring a drop towards 50

Silver brainstorming

 Silver in earlier Bullion smash campaigns went  far lower and is now more resilient and sticky which rather implicates a bull campaign is due. Global rising industrial demand gives underlying strength and GSR around 82 shows its relative low valuation hence upside potential. Expect a break above the 25.50 level in Sep with a quick rise towards 30 after 26.50 and 28 hurdles are cleared. Til 15th rather upside momentum with heliocentric Mercury but overall choppiness as Venus retrograde lasts til 5th Sep which should be strength relief point for PMs in the following months and years. For now the rising yields have been a drag while mining stocks are undermined by general stock weakness we can expect them to outperform in September, early sign of resilence should be followed by strength once Gold trades above 2k and Silver above 26 creates strong demand by FMs followed by retailers above 30.

QQQ daily brainstorming

 QQQ turned down for the 7-10% correction within Venus retrograde with fund managers almost ar record level long and the AI hype the tree needs to be shaken. Now we closed first gap down to 372 sitting on a support line wğth imminent follow through next week closing second gap to 368 and a target of 360/1 as Venus will square Uranus 9/10th expect a short term volatile bounce towards the 370 level again with follow through towards the 340/2 target for end of Aug. Starting Monday we will have a heliocentric Mercury in Sagittarius til 17th which is beneficial for Precious Metals (PMs) since leading up to BRICs summit and currencies will rise against Dollar. Usually as it represent optimism also stocks could benefit at least half way as we also have a Venus conjunct Sun 10/11th  stocks should go up in a brief counter rally as between 9-14th 2/3 different pattern suggest up-days in very volatile manner. Make no mistake the9/10th days will be very volatile and a sharp drop followed by a reversal situation may describe it best. ODTE crowd may think the correction is over but thats just a trap to burn them in the next wave down as the following week Sun will square Uranus 16th which matches the end of the Mercury phase and stocks turn down again taking PM stocks with them initially now QQQ will be heading for the 340 target and as Mercury goes stationary during the BRICs summit 23rd we will have some confusion about their declaration, mixed signals. Mercury retrograde is tricky for trading as it gives many false signals and breaks from 23rd Aug - 15th Sep. More next week

SPX daily

 SPX has rolled over close to double top levels and will close the gap in the 4450 area to test the support area 4380-4420 as an initial impulse wave down with indicators oversold once we touch that area. As next week at the 9th also has an exact Venus /Uranus square a volatile bounce could go as high as 4525 before the next leg down starts which should break below the wedge support at 4430. Timewise the correction should last til 5th Sep the end of Venus retrograde but as Mercury retrograde overlays the timeframe the effects could be extended til 15th even.

Declaration of war against banksters

Starting Monday if you want to read on you will have to use a different blog since this one still will be blocked when I am back.


http://behindthematrix.wordpress.com




Declaration of war via peaceful cyber warriors

Hacker Group Anonymous Brings Peaceful Revolution To America: Will Engage In Civil Disobedience Until Bernanke Steps Down

Submitted by Tyler Durden on 03/12/2011 21:30 -0500

• Bank of America
 
• Ben Bernanke
 
• Federal Reserve
 
• Global Economy
 
• International Monetary Fund
• Morgan Stanley
 
• World Bank
 

The world's most (in)famous hacker group - Anonymous - known for effectively shutting down their hacking nemesis security firm (with clients such as Morgan Stanley and, unfortunately for them, Bank of America)-HBGary, advocating the cause of Wikileaks, and the threat made by one of its members that evidence of fraud by Bank of America will be released on Monday, has just launched communication #1 in its Operation "Empire State Rebellion." The goal - engage in "a relentless campaign of non-violent, peaceful, civil disobedience" until Ben Bernanke steps down and the "Primary Dealers within the Federal Reserve banking system be broken up and held accountable for rigging markets and destroying the global economy effective immediately."

The Anonymous manifesto:

• We are a decentralized non-violent resistance movement, which seeks to restore the rule of law and fight back against the organized criminal class.
• One-tenth of one percent of the population has consolidated wealth in unprecedented fashion and launched an all-out economic war against 99.9% of the population.
• We are not affiliated with either wing of the two-party oligarchy. We seek an end to the corrupted two-party system by ending the campaign finance and lobbying racket.
• Above all, we aim to break up the global banking cartel centered at the Federal Reserve, International Monetary Fund, Bank of International Settlement and World Bank.
• We demand that the primary dealers within the Federal Reserve banking system be broken up and held accountable for rigging markets and destroying the global economy, effective immediately.
• As a first sign of good faith we demand Ben Bernanke step down as Federal Reserve chairman.
• Until our demands are met and a rule of law is restored, we will engage in a relentless campaign of non-violent, peaceful, civil disobedience.
• In our next communication we will announce Operation Empire State Rebellion.

Glorious Chairman Ben - our free advice to you: change your e-mail password stat...

4.927535

Your rating: None Average: 4.9 (69 votes)

SPX update

SPX is breaking below the trend support and the market closes almost exactly on the 55MA at 1295 which is a sign of trouble as the NDX closed clearly below. As said earlier the countertrends whenever weekly golden crosses occur are a regular pattern as the 50 week MA is crossing the 200MA the coming week Keep.selling any strength from now on adding to the shorts as the NDX has activated the H&S pattern. The SPX has already lost 4% from the top since the Jupiter Saturn heliocentric opposition and last time it went for a 25% drop in 1990. I am not sure yet how low we go this time as Hedge Funds are long at as we can see for Gold right now a little liquidation has started but we are far away from any oversold market right now but 1275 is a good short term support but we should expect a drop to the 200 MA over time as it represents a 50% drop from the summer lows. The FED will fight the bears fierrceful as if they also loose the stock game they become obsolete and Wallstreet will be in big trouble if another crash occurs - ultimate trouble.

Thursday brainstorming

1. Well China exports did the trick but its rather the imports I think as commodity prices have exploded - anyway markets are breaking below supports for the NDX and SPX ( later more on that).
I even heard that US Intel expects Gadaffi to win the civil war but that might just be an excuse for Sarkozy's suggestion for a surgical air strike on Libya seems very hypocritical now as the protest wave arrives fully in Saudi Arabia - Saudis opened fire to day which is serious trouble for Obama as his allies are now attacking civilians as well how can they argue that attacking Gadaffi is any better than Saudi's?


excerpt

Saudi Police Open Fire At Protest Rally

Submitted by Tyler Durden on 03/10/2011 13:25 -0500

• Crude
 

AP reports that the Saudi police open fire at protesters in Qatif after government warns demonstrators it will not tolerate protests. In other words, the shootings will continue until morale is restored. Look for crude to go antigravitational here.

2. Another good news for bears is that there are fewer of them as more have capitulated

excerpt

NYSE Short Interest Declines Again, Just In Time For Market Drop

Submitted by Tyler Durden on 03/10/2011 10:58 -0500

• Ben Bernanke
 
• New York Stock Exchange
 
• NYSE Short Interest
 
• Russell 2000
 
• Short Interest
 

While not at the lows from January, when NYSE short interest hit a multi year low of 12.4 billion shares, the just released update shows that into the end of February, total short interest once again declined from the Mid-February dead cat bounce which saw it at 12.8 billion, with the latest print at 12.6 billion shares. And now that the market is finally realizing that there is a several hundred point vacuum underneath if indeed there is even a brief break in Fed monetization, the number of shorts that may opt to cover on the market's way down is far lower than in recent history. Of course, this is what happens when everyone bets on the Bernanke Put and said Put starts to sputter, which simply means that the Fed chairman, who traditionally equates economic growth with the Russell 2000 is more boxed into a corner, than ever: QE3 will second gold to 2,000 and oil to 1,50. No QE3 will send the S&P to sub 1,000. Place your bets.

brainstorming wednesday

1. Gadaffi did not go for the offer and keeps bombing the rebels that can have 2 reasons - first would be he wants to sit down for negotiations with better cards as he wants to keep the wealth he has stolen from the state to some degree besides his life. The second more likely to his profile and actual astro pattern is that he feels confident to keep his position with help from China and Russia - which he will not at the end because the benign pattern is only til June ( which is rather the max. he can get from this civil war ). China on the other hand is not too happy about rising oil prices as it fuels a problem they already have at hand the inflation spike. Russia will enjoy the situation very much as they can max out their profits on oil.


excerpt



Forces loyal to Libyan leader Muammar Gaddafi have launched new air raids on the oil city of Ras Lanuf and are closing in on the western town of Az Zawiyah.
Fresh reports of rockets landing on Ras Lanuf came on Wednesday, leading to a growing concern for the city's gas facilities, which if bombed, could spell disaster for people living in the area.
Jacky Rowland, Al Jazeera's correspondent in Ras Lanuf, said fighter jets were circling overhead and the rebels were firing back.
"What we are hearing is intense and repeated attacks by Gaddafi's airplanes on the rebels," she said.
"The air force is concentrating on the big junctions at the entrance to the town. The fact that it’s such consistent black smoke could well means there is oil underneath it. It is continuing to burn.
"The opposition fighters are extremely panicked."
Khaled Kwafi, a member of the opposition forces based on the outskirts of the city, told Al Jazeera that people were killed and injured in the attack.
"An hour ago we saw warplanes in the sky. We heard very huge explosions and lots of smoke. Our people tried to go there but they were stopped," he said.
"We heard there are people killed and injured there."
Forces loyal to Gaddafi are also reported to have surrounded the rebel-held western town of Az Zawiyah, close to the capital Tripoli.
The Libyan government claims it has taken back the coastal town of Bin Jawad after heavy shelling there.
Meanwhile, in his second televised speech in as many days, Gaddafi once again alleged involvement of foreigners in the rebellion against his more than 41-year-old rule.
In an address on state TV early on Wednesday he warned of a plot to colonise Libya. As proof, he said his security forces had captured several foreigners during a raid on Monday.
"Yesterday, the mosque that the security forces regained power over, they had in this mosque, they had weapons and alcohol as well. Some of them come from Afghanistan, some of them come from Egypt, some of them come from Algeria, just to misguide our children," Gaddafi said.


2. That Bill Gross has completely sold out of Treasuries is rather alarming in the current context and proves that Government lies about inflation as stated many times. He seems to think as I assumed earlier as well that rather bonds will drag down equities. Therefor he is high on cash because opportunity will present itself once the process is triggered but first world bond markets have to price in inflation which is an ugly event once it starts.


excerpt

Exclusive: Bill Gross Dumps All Treasuries, Brings Total "Government Related" Holdings To Zero, Flees To Cash - No QE3?

Submitted by Tyler Durden on 03/09/2011 09:02 -0500

• Bill Gross
 
• Mortgage Backed Securities
 
• PIMCO
 
• Quantitative Easing
• Total Return Fund
 

And many thought Bill Gross was only posturing when he said he is getting the hell out of dodge. Based on still to be publicly reported data by Pimco's flagship Total Return Fund, the world's largest bond fund, in the month of January, has taken its bond holdings to zero(and -14% on a Duration Weighted Exposure basis). The offset, not surprisingly, is cash. After sporting $28.6 billion in "government related" securities, TRF dropped to $0.0, while its cash holdings surged from $11.9 billion to a whopping $54.5 billion (based on total TRF holdings of $236.9 billion as of February 28).This is the most cash the flagship fund has ever held, and the lowest amount in Treasury holdings since January 2009 before it was made clear that the Fed was going to adjust QE1 to include Treasurys in addition to Mortgage Backed Securities. PIMCO's Treasury holdings peaked in June 2010 at $147.4 billion and have declined consistently ever since. And while we expected that the spike in MBS holdings (at times on margin) was indicative of an expectation that QE3 would monetize mortgage backed securities, the ongoing decline in that asset class now leads us to believe that Bill Gross is now convinced there will be no QE3 at all, at least based on his just putting his money where his monthly pen is! And if Bill Gross, the most connected person to the upcoming actions by the Fed, believes there is no more quantitative easing, it is really time to get the hell out of dodge in all security classes - bonds, and most certainly, equities.

brainstorming tuesday

1. We have an interesting situation at hand short-term as Gadaffi got a 72h option to get out without prosecution card from the opposition but one condition is that any military action has to stop first. It is in so far  interesting as we will have a 48h benign market situation at hand by an Astro patterm before on the 11th Uranus enters Aries. This is the only realistic option out for Gadaffi if international institutions do refrain from prosecution as well which would make it a likely scenario for a descent thinking man but he is rather eccentric to say the least and may bet that China and Russia keep the Nato away. So far the scenario we could repeat that consolidation pattern seems to work out again after testing yesterdays lows market has turned up again with banks as the leading sector

Rebels set demands for Gaddafi exit

Head of Libyan opposition says Gaddafi 'will not be pursued' if he quits within 72 hours and stops bombing countrymen. Last Modified: 08 Mar 2011 14:36 GMT Email Article Print Article Share Article Send Feedback

Rebels will not pursue Libyan leader Muammar Gaddafi over crimes they say he has committed if he steps down from his post in the next 72 hours, the head of the rebel National Libyan Council has told Al Jazeera. "If he leaves Libya immediately, during 72 hours, and stops the bombardment, we as Libyans will step back from pursuing him for crimes," Mustafa Abdel Jalil, head of the opposition National Council, told Al Jazeera on Tuesday. He said the deadline would not be extended beyond 72 hours.