Bond crash in a 5 wave pattern about to find  its bottom around 110, ideally would briefly go below Boll and reverse in Oct with a bullish divergence pattern creating an ABC correction in the range 105-130. While the FED will pause the curve inversion will normalize in 2024. Since the long term uptrend is broken expect more downside in the 2nd half of 24 as we had for the elections turbulences in financial markets are to be expected starting Q2 24 again. In Q4 of this year bank failures are likely which might lead to some dovish FED adjustments but no rate cuts yet.

 Gold as I had written back in May, Bullion would try to paint a triple top pattern which they did so far despite China premium of 5%. Strategically they did in right before the 'Golden Week' holiday seems ironic but  retail China buys the most Gold in the days prior which might explain why China did not intervene as people got their Gold relatively cheaper. Parallel Silver was also turned down as China accumulates Silver by trashing it as long as moronic Bullion banks play along knowing that game is soon over as we head for buying season Q4/Q1 which naturally is a strong time for PMs. Golden week Shanghai  is closed but Hong Kong except Monday is open hence they can take advantage of lower prices. RSI and other indicators are already extreme as we are below daily and weekly Bolls which is capitulation buy territory at least for a strong bounce. As Mars switches signs from Libra (weak for PMs to Scorpio (strong for PMs) early Oct this will create an good opportunity - risk is down to 1800, upside minimum 1900 extended 1950 for Oct.

 Silver the good news is that Bullion went long like at the low in Aug last year. COT says they are neutral but Fridays rise in OI by 3k rather increases the chances they are long around 3k while CTAs were short 4k and may have added 3k. they made a dramatic shift last week with 16k in a capitulation. Well in 2022 Bullion went as high as 30k longs at some point while CTAs were massively short. The coming week I rather see an upside bias but the week of the BRICs summit volatility will rise and another downside move may add to the Venus Rx choppiness before we have the floor to start the substantial up move in Sep as I also expect a brief bounce for stocks next week followed by more downside into 4th Sep Venus stationary. Uranus going stationary 29th will add some vol to the markets.

 GSR (Gold/Silver Ratio) reached the 84 level and should top ot around this level til Friday though basically we can go sideways til end of month. Except the BRICS summit 22-24 may add volatility short term but the Mercury stationary on 23rd suggests some confusion around their announcement.Early Sep we can expect a decisive break below 79 and starting a new cycle towards 65 for 2023. 2024 should bring a drop towards 50

Silver brainstorming

 Silver in earlier Bullion smash campaigns went  far lower and is now more resilient and sticky which rather implicates a bull campaign is due. Global rising industrial demand gives underlying strength and GSR around 82 shows its relative low valuation hence upside potential. Expect a break above the 25.50 level in Sep with a quick rise towards 30 after 26.50 and 28 hurdles are cleared. Til 15th rather upside momentum with heliocentric Mercury but overall choppiness as Venus retrograde lasts til 5th Sep which should be strength relief point for PMs in the following months and years. For now the rising yields have been a drag while mining stocks are undermined by general stock weakness we can expect them to outperform in September, early sign of resilence should be followed by strength once Gold trades above 2k and Silver above 26 creates strong demand by FMs followed by retailers above 30.

QQQ daily brainstorming

 QQQ turned down for the 7-10% correction within Venus retrograde with fund managers almost ar record level long and the AI hype the tree needs to be shaken. Now we closed first gap down to 372 sitting on a support line wğth imminent follow through next week closing second gap to 368 and a target of 360/1 as Venus will square Uranus 9/10th expect a short term volatile bounce towards the 370 level again with follow through towards the 340/2 target for end of Aug. Starting Monday we will have a heliocentric Mercury in Sagittarius til 17th which is beneficial for Precious Metals (PMs) since leading up to BRICs summit and currencies will rise against Dollar. Usually as it represent optimism also stocks could benefit at least half way as we also have a Venus conjunct Sun 10/11th  stocks should go up in a brief counter rally as between 9-14th 2/3 different pattern suggest up-days in very volatile manner. Make no mistake the9/10th days will be very volatile and a sharp drop followed by a reversal situation may describe it best. ODTE crowd may think the correction is over but thats just a trap to burn them in the next wave down as the following week Sun will square Uranus 16th which matches the end of the Mercury phase and stocks turn down again taking PM stocks with them initially now QQQ will be heading for the 340 target and as Mercury goes stationary during the BRICs summit 23rd we will have some confusion about their declaration, mixed signals. Mercury retrograde is tricky for trading as it gives many false signals and breaks from 23rd Aug - 15th Sep. More next week

SPX daily

 SPX has rolled over close to double top levels and will close the gap in the 4450 area to test the support area 4380-4420 as an initial impulse wave down with indicators oversold once we touch that area. As next week at the 9th also has an exact Venus /Uranus square a volatile bounce could go as high as 4525 before the next leg down starts which should break below the wedge support at 4430. Timewise the correction should last til 5th Sep the end of Venus retrograde but as Mercury retrograde overlays the timeframe the effects could be extended til 15th even.

Declaration of war against banksters

Starting Monday if you want to read on you will have to use a different blog since this one still will be blocked when I am back.


http://behindthematrix.wordpress.com




Declaration of war via peaceful cyber warriors

Hacker Group Anonymous Brings Peaceful Revolution To America: Will Engage In Civil Disobedience Until Bernanke Steps Down

Submitted by Tyler Durden on 03/12/2011 21:30 -0500

• Bank of America
 
• Ben Bernanke
 
• Federal Reserve
 
• Global Economy
 
• International Monetary Fund
• Morgan Stanley
 
• World Bank
 

The world's most (in)famous hacker group - Anonymous - known for effectively shutting down their hacking nemesis security firm (with clients such as Morgan Stanley and, unfortunately for them, Bank of America)-HBGary, advocating the cause of Wikileaks, and the threat made by one of its members that evidence of fraud by Bank of America will be released on Monday, has just launched communication #1 in its Operation "Empire State Rebellion." The goal - engage in "a relentless campaign of non-violent, peaceful, civil disobedience" until Ben Bernanke steps down and the "Primary Dealers within the Federal Reserve banking system be broken up and held accountable for rigging markets and destroying the global economy effective immediately."

The Anonymous manifesto:

• We are a decentralized non-violent resistance movement, which seeks to restore the rule of law and fight back against the organized criminal class.
• One-tenth of one percent of the population has consolidated wealth in unprecedented fashion and launched an all-out economic war against 99.9% of the population.
• We are not affiliated with either wing of the two-party oligarchy. We seek an end to the corrupted two-party system by ending the campaign finance and lobbying racket.
• Above all, we aim to break up the global banking cartel centered at the Federal Reserve, International Monetary Fund, Bank of International Settlement and World Bank.
• We demand that the primary dealers within the Federal Reserve banking system be broken up and held accountable for rigging markets and destroying the global economy, effective immediately.
• As a first sign of good faith we demand Ben Bernanke step down as Federal Reserve chairman.
• Until our demands are met and a rule of law is restored, we will engage in a relentless campaign of non-violent, peaceful, civil disobedience.
• In our next communication we will announce Operation Empire State Rebellion.

Glorious Chairman Ben - our free advice to you: change your e-mail password stat...

4.927535

Your rating: None Average: 4.9 (69 votes)

SPX update

SPX is breaking below the trend support and the market closes almost exactly on the 55MA at 1295 which is a sign of trouble as the NDX closed clearly below. As said earlier the countertrends whenever weekly golden crosses occur are a regular pattern as the 50 week MA is crossing the 200MA the coming week Keep.selling any strength from now on adding to the shorts as the NDX has activated the H&S pattern. The SPX has already lost 4% from the top since the Jupiter Saturn heliocentric opposition and last time it went for a 25% drop in 1990. I am not sure yet how low we go this time as Hedge Funds are long at as we can see for Gold right now a little liquidation has started but we are far away from any oversold market right now but 1275 is a good short term support but we should expect a drop to the 200 MA over time as it represents a 50% drop from the summer lows. The FED will fight the bears fierrceful as if they also loose the stock game they become obsolete and Wallstreet will be in big trouble if another crash occurs - ultimate trouble.

Thursday brainstorming

1. Well China exports did the trick but its rather the imports I think as commodity prices have exploded - anyway markets are breaking below supports for the NDX and SPX ( later more on that).
I even heard that US Intel expects Gadaffi to win the civil war but that might just be an excuse for Sarkozy's suggestion for a surgical air strike on Libya seems very hypocritical now as the protest wave arrives fully in Saudi Arabia - Saudis opened fire to day which is serious trouble for Obama as his allies are now attacking civilians as well how can they argue that attacking Gadaffi is any better than Saudi's?


excerpt

Saudi Police Open Fire At Protest Rally

Submitted by Tyler Durden on 03/10/2011 13:25 -0500

• Crude
 

AP reports that the Saudi police open fire at protesters in Qatif after government warns demonstrators it will not tolerate protests. In other words, the shootings will continue until morale is restored. Look for crude to go antigravitational here.

2. Another good news for bears is that there are fewer of them as more have capitulated

excerpt

NYSE Short Interest Declines Again, Just In Time For Market Drop

Submitted by Tyler Durden on 03/10/2011 10:58 -0500

• Ben Bernanke
 
• New York Stock Exchange
 
• NYSE Short Interest
 
• Russell 2000
 
• Short Interest
 

While not at the lows from January, when NYSE short interest hit a multi year low of 12.4 billion shares, the just released update shows that into the end of February, total short interest once again declined from the Mid-February dead cat bounce which saw it at 12.8 billion, with the latest print at 12.6 billion shares. And now that the market is finally realizing that there is a several hundred point vacuum underneath if indeed there is even a brief break in Fed monetization, the number of shorts that may opt to cover on the market's way down is far lower than in recent history. Of course, this is what happens when everyone bets on the Bernanke Put and said Put starts to sputter, which simply means that the Fed chairman, who traditionally equates economic growth with the Russell 2000 is more boxed into a corner, than ever: QE3 will second gold to 2,000 and oil to 1,50. No QE3 will send the S&P to sub 1,000. Place your bets.