THE DOT - if this turns orange or red be alert

Wednesday, May 28, 2008

The Goldmann miracle

It is interesting to notice that GS plays an obscure game they are the firm with the highest VAR and per se are a HF with a M&A side-shop and its very puzzling that they are allowed to give calls on equities (conflict of interest). There is an interesting phenomen of spreading their people around - nowadays from Treasury over FED to other mayor firms like Citi and Merrill they have their former people at top spots. They have the myth of rainmakers but if you meet single persons they have the same intelligence like all the other guys on Wallstreet so what is their trick it cannot be that they make calls on Mondays and have picked them up on Friday already (front running) that would be prevented by the SEC - or might we find former GS guys there as well - like they did the last Monday's with AMZN and AAPL buy recommendations and their former equity strategist (Abby Cohen, who said one week ago SPX would likely stay between 1400 and 1300 and break out in q4 to test the highs) a permanent bull has called the market not right most of the time - still they make more money but that they get tipped of by former partners is unthinkable what do they have Chinese walls for.
On Tuesday GS came up with a summer rally call (buy in May until Labourday) and was followed swiftly by MER yesterday with the same reasoning that historically markets go up around that time (remember the top 3 people at MER are former GS) - well I remember that just by statistical means the time from May to Labourday is particularly dull as you can see by the above chart. Pre election with a chance that a Rep. wins its a different ball game but on the opposite side an Iran strike in Q3 has a probability.
Well I do not think that June will be a good month for bulls but we have an intermarket divergence which favors the tech sector clearly. SPX and XBD broke out of flags to the downside thereby NDX defended the channel support retested the 200 MA and looks by far the strongest segment. Obviously the financials have the biggest impact on the weak SPX and that impact will stay until we see another test of the lows in the XBD. Medium term I agree we will see another rally in the second half since the MAs of the ISEE have not reached critical levels for a severe drop and some indicators are already softening again like Investor Intelligence Bulls came dome from 47 to 37. But be aware that especially the next 3 weeks any information will be less reliable with Merkur an Neptun retrograde sine the 26. and window dressing period combined with half year results being 'produced' for investment banks. when June starts more consolidation can be expected. The next days will have likely an upside bias though if GDP allows for it but the statistics are a miracle by themself.

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