THE DOT - if this turns orange or red be alert

Saturday, November 29, 2008

Volatile December ahead - some astro insghts

The following describes pretty good whats ahead of us in DEC also from a technical point of view. markets will be very volatile going through DEC and we need to make even new lows - but thats only the financial turmoil. we will have some dangerous alignments over the holidays and Mumbai's events might be a harbinger of things to come - so watch out in all aspects and be save.

Excerpt from

http://www.mmacycles.com/weekly-preview/mma-comments-for-the-week/mma-weekly-comments-for-the-week-beginning-december-1,-2008/

Although the volatility did recede last week, other principles associated with Uranus were operative, as witnessed by the sudden and shocking attacks by terrorists on innocent civilians in Mumbai, India. The principles of explosiveness and sudden, jarring events are all part of the developing conjunction of Sun and Mars in Sagittarius, as both move towards their T-square to Saturn and Uranus. It may also be a symbolic foretelling of what to expect as Pluto now re-enters the sign of Capricorn for the next 15 years.

On November 27, Pluto – the planet of power, death, taxes, and transformation - re-entered Capricorn, the sign of the Establishment, tradition, and government. Under this 15-year reign, we can anticipate many governments and many government leaders being the object of hatred and secretive efforts to overthrow it. Government’s reactions to combat it will be just as heavy in response, and once again freedoms and liberties will be at risk. “Big Brother” will be watching ore and more closely in an effort to find and punish the terrorists.

On the same day, November 27, Uranus went stationary direct. And change of positions highlights the principles of that planet. Uranus represents shock and sudden events. It is one of the planets correlating with terrorism, especially when Pluto and/or Mars are highlighted at the same time. All three are highlighted now, because on December 5 (next Friday) the Sun and Mars come together in a conjunction aspect, in the volatile sign of Sagittarius. In a study I conducted several years ago, I demonstrated that the Sun-Mars conjunction was the most consistent of all to 10% or greater moves in the Down Jones Industrial Average than any other planetary pair signature, within an orb of 8 degrees. Once upon a time, 10% was considered a major move. But, as you saw last week, 10% is not so major any more. We are getting 10% moves every week now, so in this case, we may be looking at a 20% reversal developing. That is, within two weeks of the Sun Mars conjunction, look for a 20% move to end and a 20% opposite move to begin.

The real test to the strength of this new bullish-looking market will come around December 10-15. That is when both the Sun and Mars will “translate” by square aspect the long-term Saturn-Uranus opposition. As noted before, every time such a translation has occurred in the past year, the stock indices of the world have undergone a very sharp decline. But it is not just in the stock market that we need to be alert for sudden changes and events, for this time this combination is taking place amidst new and bold terrorist activity. To say that this is a dangerous period is an understatement. It is a violent potential, and such violence can be activated in stock markets around the worlds too in the form of a sudden collapse. Can prices fall back below the lows of the last two months? If so, it can quickly turn into panic and hysteria to a degree that exceeds even that leading into November 21. If those lows can hold, however, we may be embarking upon a multi-month rally for after all, the world wants to have hope and it wants to believe things will improve. It wants to believe in the charisma and message of Barack Obama, to be specific. Jupiter is coming up to conjunct Uranus in Pisces, and both from a positive mutual reception with Uranus in Pisces, for the middle of 2009.

There is danger in the world as we head into the holiday season. But there is also hope and the belief of the masses that something magical is happening or can happen. Astrologically, the heavy Saturn aspects are usually considered stronger than the Jupiter-Neptune ones. But Jupiter and Neptune is spiritual force. It will be interesting to see which wins out in the market place: the heaviness and danger of the Saturn-Uranus related aspects or the power of spiritual belief and positive thinking signified by Jupiter and Neptune. Is Barack Obama really THE one, or is he just THAT one? Is this Camelot or Armageddon? We should know the answer sometime by the end of 2009. We are living in a time of heroes and mad men. For now, we can all try to enjoy the magic, but also try to avoid the danger. The markets will reflect which forces are winning.

Friday, November 28, 2008

AMZN vs EBAY outlook - market wrap up

AMZN weekly reached our downside target 35 basically but is not finished yet as we are only in week 11. The drop below to 35 needs to be repeated with a new low to complete this leg. EBAY's chart looks better from a chart and fundamental perspective as EBAY is 'cheap' with a 8 PE and AMZN still trades above 35 PE. If a retail internet stock is an idea Ebay might be the better choice. In any case wait until markets have a real bottom.

The window dressing brought all European markets to a positive close as well and the same can be expected for the US markets . Even monday should be in a positive bias as the TG weekend may be better as many thought - thats at least what the stars say as one of the best constellations is this weekend with a conjunction of Venus and Jupiter getting exact around Monday. That is generally a very good vibe so enjoy it.

Tech outlook on Turkeys stock ındex

The XU100 weekly chart trades along the trendline and we made a little trough with the other markets but the real low of this leg is not in yet. Weare in wave counts in wave 4 of 3 and need the final thrust down to complete wave 3 down. You might als notice a Head and shoulder pattern with the red line which is a TDST line almost matching the neckline. In both cases thats a negativesignal mid to long term and gives a target of 5000-7000 roughly but within 2-3 years though. For now around 20000 the low of leg 3 should find its bottom and a powerful rally might follow as some 'pundits' still claim this to be a cheap market - which is a statistically always obscure thing to say for a not developed economy with a golobal depression knocking at the door.

Taypayers keep getting screwed as the massive bailout of financials do not arrive at mainstreet who pays for it

A rate cut by the ECB of 50 BP on the 4th Dec is sealed with inflation sharply down but that is/was broadly expected and priced in. will be interesting how 'Black Friday' thats the one now after TG turns out. We have a very good constellation of stars right now which might make people spend more than they should - I expect retail sales figures to turn out positive for this shopping weekend. The problem of those rate cuts is they only benefit banks as they do not pass on lower rates which is a big outrage as politicians bailing them out did not bring these bailouts in a direct obligation to pass through lower rates. The same old game keeps marching, its not about mainstreet at all whatever the corrupt bunch of politicians might claim in the media - they have the power to force banks by many means. If we have socialism for corporations why not for the people who pay for that with their taxes.

Excerpts

Shoppers Flock to Stores But with Tighter Wallets

Reuters | 28 Nov 2008 | 08:09 AM ET
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Shoppers flocked to stores before dawn Friday to make the most of holiday sales across the United States, but many vowed to keep spending down in the face of a shrinking economy.

Retailers from Wal-Mart Stores [WMT 56.69 --- UNCH (0) ] to Macy's [M 7.03 --- UNCH (0) ], Kohl's [KSS 32.71 --- UNCH (0) ] and Best Buy [BBY 21.08 --- UNCH (0) ] opened their doors in the early hours of "Black Friday," offering steep discounts to shoppers who waited in line.

"I'm here to save money. The recession is kicking in," said Tammy Williams, 36, as she stood in line waiting for a 4 a.m. ET (9:00 GMT) opening at a Kohl's in West Paterson, New Jersey. "I'm just looking for a bargain, anything to save a couple of dollars. I'll save the rest for food shopping."

The holiday weekend will test the strength of consumer sentiment, a main driver of the U.S. economy, as the country faces its worst financial crisis since the Great Depression.


Euro Zone Unemployment Rises to 7.7%, Inflation Plunges

Reuters | 28 Nov 2008 | 05:18 AM ET
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Euro zone inflation plunged to 2.1 percent in November and unemployment rose faster than
anticipated, data showed, boosting expectations of a deep interest rate cut by the ECB next week as the economy shrinks.

Consumer inflation in the 15-country euro area slowed by 1.1 percentage point from October's annual rate of 3.2 percent, the Eurostat European Union statistics office estimated.

Market forecasts had centred on a decline to 2.3 percent.

The European Central Bank wants inflation to be below, but close to, 2 percent and has signalled it has "ample" room to cut rates on Dec. 4 if inflation pressures subside.

Most economists expect a 50-basis-point rate cut to 2.75 percent, but around a quarter of the forecasters see a deeper cut of 75-100 basis points.

Japan suffers more as their currency is overvalued due to carry trade closings - but that is something they pulled on themselves as they did not take the risks seriously enough of such an event

Japan Industrial Output Nosedives on Global Crisis

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Japanese industrial production dropped sharply in October and manufacturers warned of even more dramatic falls in coming months, prompting warnings that Japan's recession will be even deeper and longer than previously thought.

AP

The bleak industrial data, combined with sliding household spending and falling retail sales, will reinforce the Bank of Japan's focus on downside risks for the world's second-largest economy, but economists remain divided on whether it will cut its already low rates even further, even as the risk of deflation grows.

Japan is now firmly caught up in the financial crisis, with its big exporters such as Toyota and other car makers facing tumbling orders from key customers in the United States, Europe -- and increasingly Asia as well.

Exporters had been the main engine of growth for Japan's economy but Takumi Tsunoda, senior economist at Shinkin Central Bank Research, said their output could post its biggest ever quarterly fall in the fourth quarter.

"Production is falling much faster than we had expected. Companies are adjusting their production very quickly. The auto makers are the worst hit, but their turmoil is starting to spill over into other sectors, such as steel makers," Tsunoda said.

Industrial output fell 3.1 percent in the month of October, more than a median market forecast for a 2.5 percent drop, and the outlook was for a record fall of 6.4 percent in November -- pointing towards an 8.6 percent contraction for the fourth quarter.

Industrial output has already been falling for three quarters of this year and, with household spending also in decline, economists warned of a longer and deeper recession ahead.

Thursday, November 27, 2008

We worst is still to come -the Uranus / Saturn effect outside financial markets - enjoy Thanksgiving

Thailand in turmoil - Russia makes its first military operation with Venezuela - its not only the financial world at the brink of a dramatic shift with terrorists hunting Americans and Britons in India now. The clash between Russia ans America over the rocket shield deployment in east Europe is a dangerous situation and could bring a reverse Cuba crisis ( reverse as this time America puts rockets in front of Russia). The Iran situation will be crucial soon. The global economic contraction towards a depression will bring social unrest in many places. Times will get much tougher in many ways - the coziness-factor will vanish with Pluto in Capricorn making a T-square to the Saturn / Uranus opposition aligning the next 2 years. The optimism Obama tries to spread is a bit premature - its good though to have the positive spirit, but his promise to create 2.5 mil jobs in 2 years is not sustainable and he will have no chance to cut any budget. He will be the president who printed the money ( anyone in his position), after 70 years of expansion a 20 year contraction is unavoidable as it is a cyclical event. Its a bit like the seasons, as we cannot avoid winter all exaggerated human moves and behaviour needs to be cleansed. The greed factor which dominated the world for 20 years with a Bushpresident vetoing chidrens healthcare for 50 bil. but throwing 150 at AİG or 350 at Citi speaks volume and that the people let him get away with that is not what a democracy is about. Hopefully Thanksgiving with the New Moon will enlighten more people what important values are in life and that they have to put some effort in getting them established.

Indian Commandos in Mumbai Free Hostages at Taj Mahal (Update1)


By Chitra Somayaji, Sumit Sharma and Anoop Agrawal

Nov. 27 (Bloomberg) -- Indian commandos freed hostages held by gunmen at one of two luxury hotels in Mumbai, after terrorist shootings and blasts across the city killed at least 101 people and left 290 injured.

Militants armed with grenades and rifles stormed into the Taj Mahal Palace and Tower hotel and the Oberoi Trident complex at about 10 p.m. local time yesterday, saying they were targeting Americans and Britons, according to witnesses. People were still barricaded in their rooms after the hostage situation at the Taj Mahal Palace and Tower Hotel ended today, Mumbai Police Chief A.N Roy said.

Security forces swept through the hotels, said Mumbai Police Sub-Inspector S.D. Tarwadkar, who didn’t have details of the number of hostages held in Mumbai, India’s financial center, or their nationalities. The country closed its markets today.

Targeting foreign nationals at key tourist hotels and restaurants adds a new dimension to a wave of bombings in India this year that has killed more than 300 people. Multiple attacks have rocked India’s cities with bombs planted in markets, theaters and near mosques.

Schlumberger tech outlook

Schlumberger is a relatively cheap stock now trading around 10 PE again but the technical picture says it will get 'cheaper'. It should drop to the 32/5 area before a severe upside move will occur - sounds funny as it made 20 % within a week. A drop from 112 to 32 (when we finally have the low) will produce a 38% retracement potential up to 65 even with 52 the mandatory part. All we did so far as we are here as well far below monthly Bollingers to trade back towards it (currently at 56.5, which ir will not reach now). As the month ends Friday the levels will come down though. SLB made an almost 100$ move up within 5 years and lost 75% of it til now within 5 months. We are now in wave terms in wave 4 of 3 - we might even see 55 at some point in Dec ( as the final upside manipulation is executed) but we will drop to/below 35 thereafter which will be a temporary bargain in Jan /Feb as that earnings season will be unpleasant for stocks.

Wednesday, November 26, 2008

NDX tech update - Happy Thanksgiving

Snap back rally extended version - the hourly NDX left hand has 2-3 hours upside left and we will briefly go above 1200 Friday. This is a perfect window dressing as many are jumping on board. We just rallied back to monthly Bollingers SPX for the NDX its still far away at 1370 that means a second month the NDX will close outside, which is very bearish still. The Rydex is back up to .97 thats a crash level basically and we will get another selling wave soon. As if Golman is right abou earnings what we will know in Jan with 55$ market trades at 17 PE which is far too rich for the SPX. Lets see how far the pullback next week takes us. Good vibes are on the next days as Venus and Jupiter are at the same spot for a few days which will bring a lucky TG weekend. Have a happy Thanksgiiving.

VLO tech update - market update

VLO may be an undervalued stock but as the crackspread stays on the worst level for a decade the profit margin for refiners is in jeopardy. Currently we are locked in a descending trading channel and the upside is around 20, which we likely will see. The Seq daily 13 set a low for now as we are in a zigzag consolidation for now. The interesting part is that crude is about to make a low soon just below 50 and has to go up to 80 thereafter which might trigger a breakout to the upside bringing VLO back up to 25.

The statistic effect around TG is overwhelmingly positive and as we have a New Moon on Friday in Sagitarius which is basically a positive for stocks and the window dressing makes it a sealed deal we stay in a stronger bias as expected for this week. Do not get trapped though as we have to face another selling wave in Dec as many charts still require a trough to complete this downleg.

MSFT tech update - market update

The weekly chart of MSFT made the weekly 13 which is a good support for a low of the overall market as well. The low was beneath the old low which brings the trading channel of 7 years a bit in jeopardy. So far we snaped back towards the monthly Bollinger currently at 21.30 but the monthly price action is still negative. Otherwise we might have the temp. low for that particular stock for now. I do expect a new low though for the overall market in Dec or early Jan before we might see a more severe upside correction. This week is clearly window dressing driven and as we had a retest of the 2002 low some brave buyers are rushing in as the week for TG is traditionaly a good week to buy. The monstrous aid programs by the FED , Obama and EU do their part to support the sentiment for now. I rather expect selling returning next week. As MS Whitney ( one of the handful good analysts out there) said correctly today much more write offs for banks to come and Mr. Pandit selfconfidence is not founded on any substance why would he get the biggest bailout in history for a single ank and not be humble. Its amazing how pathetic some wallstreet CEO's are - this guy is pretty useless and will cost taxpayers even more going forward which I fully agree on with Ms. Whitney.

Get a grip on where we are in GDP terms last 8 years

Remember this are the official numbers which are severely overstated the last chart shows the old inflation model whic matches the real situation. The point is that the difference is obviously not going away but inflations therefor the growth rate of the GDP, hence the GDP numbers are far too high. Goldman and others expect a contraction of - 5% for Q4 which will bring the whole year into a serious contraction. 2009 will be a disaster year but will see a great push by enormous government spending at some point which is not sustainable and comes at a high price as all the debt increases are a big burden and will at some point trigger a crash in bond markets.

Definition

Gross Domestic Product (GDP) is the broadest measure of aggregate economic activity and encompasses every sector of the economy. Why Investors Care
[Chart] Real GDP growth is always quoted at a quarterly annual rate. It measures how much the economy has grown over a three-month period. Quarterly growth rates are often volatile; consequently, economists also like to look at the year-over-year growth in GDP. The yearly changes tend to be more stable.
Data Source: Haver Analytics
[Chart] It is common to compare quarterly changes at annual rates in the GDP deflator. These can be volatile, just like the quarterly swings in real GDP growth; as a result, the trend in inflation is better determined by year- over- year changes.
Data Source: Haver Analytics

Alternate CPI Chart

Tuesday, November 25, 2008

SPX technical update

The SPX has made the snap back rally and is already running out of steam. we can except a bit more upside though s we rise we qıite some volume now but that might be due to the assumption we had a double bottom. I agree that the test of the 770 level was an essential part for a real low to establish I expected as well but some other aspects need to click in as well. so far we have an inside week that is usually not how a real trough is made and on a monthly basis we are severly below last months close - only a close above 970 would change that and not likely at all. we are even still below monthly Bollinger at current level which are quite negative aspects. Not to mention that all the counts are not complete especially weekly ones. all we have is a snap back rally after a deep decline which is a regular thing to happen. So do not get to excited you did not miss the real thing yet. Basically we will see another dip starting early Dec as we are heading for the window dressing month end and for brokers yearend manipulations. The carry trades (Yen) are not done either so we have still some Hedge Fund selling ahead - the only change for now is some real buyers are now in but that does not mean they make the right choices.

Email from a disgusted banker about the credit card business

If after the monstrous 8 tril. bailout program banks still keep doing pathetic business in the credit card sector - a lot of people need to be jailed for screwing around with taxpayers money from lawmakers who let them go forward to the supervisors (SEC,FED,FDIC and Treasury), not to forget this insane bankers who do not seem to learn anything. Bush may be counting the days to get back to Texas and leave the mess he helped to create to the new administration but he should be held responsible for what he did or let do since at the end of the day the 8 tril commited to the bailout will be close to a doubling of national debt within one year. That are insane records matched by others though as UK is doubling its national debt as well. The deflationary trend of asset destruction will be followed by hyperinflation in a year or two when the money printing insanity reaches the real world. So far the money disappears in the digital world of banking accounts as banks destroyed much more money then they ever had at hand. The problem is with 600-800 tril. of derivative contracts still pending and with an further implosion of the underlying assets losses will keep pouring in and banks do not have any funds to meet those obligations. Money printing is the remedy governments use desperately which will create even more trouble going forward. Its anyway insane that banks bailed out and I mean the whole industry because basically all are bankrupt as Citigroup's bankruptcy would have shut down all banks can keep on screwing customers. The same customers who's taxes are used to save them have to pay 22% on credit card loans - the whole system stinks and all ends and that has to come to an end. Banks only earn money because they screw customers backed by laws but that could be organized differently. The change Obama made to his marketing - mantra is the only way, but I have severe doubts he can execute or even intends to as his choices are just not promising ones as some of them even helped to create this mess.



The Worst Is Yet To Come: Anonymous Banker Weighs In On The Coming Credit Card Debacle

A few weeks ago, I published an e-mail message sent to me from an executive who works in the banking industry — and had become disgusted by what he sees all around him. This weekend, that same banker sent me another e-mail message, which he has also agree to let me publish. It’s another wake-up call. Too bad nobody is listening.

Today, we are bailing out the banks because of their greedy and deceptive lending practices in the mortgage industry. But this is just the tip of the iceberg. More is coming, I’m sorry to say. Layoffs are being announced nationwide in the tens of thousands. As people begin to lose their jobs, they will not be able to pay their credit card bills either. And the banks will be back for more handouts.

I received a catalog today from Casual Living and in big bold print on the front page, it said “BUY NOW, PAY NOTHING”. Then in significantly smaller print underneath, it said, (until April). That mantra has been sung throughout the credit markets over the last 10 years. The banks waive a carrot in front of the consumer and reel them in and encourage them to go deeper and deeper into debt. They do this by prescreening customers through credit reporting agencies, mailing offers to apply, and to transfer balances at teaser rates or zero percent financing. They base it on credit score and not on capacity to repay. A good credit score does not equate to the ability to repay debt.

Over my career, I have seen thousands of consumers that have credit card lines in excess of their annual salaries. Some are sinking under their burden. Some have been fiscally responsible and have minimal amounts outstanding. My 21-year-old daughter, who’s in college, gets pre-approved offers all the time. She has no ability to repay debt, yet the offers flow in just the same. We all know how these lines are accumulated. The banks, in their infinite stupidity, keep upping credit lines because the customer pays the minimum payments on time. My daughter’s credit line started at $1,000 and has been increased over the last two years to $4,400. She has no increased earnings to support this. But the banks do it without asking. And without being asked. The banks reel in the consumer, charge interest rates higher than those charged by the mob, increase lines without the consumer asking and without their consent, and lure them into overextending. And we can count on the banks to act surprised when they aren’t paid back. Shame on them.

As a banker, let me describe what we do wrong when we accept and review an application for a credit card. First, we don’t verify income. The first ‘C’ of credit: Capacity to repay, is completely ignored by the banks, just as it was in when they approved subprime mortgages. Then we ask for “household income” — as if other parties in the household could be held responsible for that debt. They cannot. And since we don’t ask for any proof of income, the customer can throw out any number they think will work for them. Then we ask if they rent or own and how much they pay. If their name is not on the mortgage, they can state zero. If they pay $1,000 in rent, they can say $500. (Years ago we asked for a copy of the lease to verify this number.) And finally, we don’t ask how much of a credit line the consumer is looking for. The banker can’t even put that amount into the system. There isn’t any place on the application for that information. We simply put unverified information into a mindless computer and the computer gets the person’s credit score and grants them the biggest line that score and income (ha!) qualifies for.

I recently had a client apply for a credit card. She is a homemaker, with no personal income. The house she lives in is in her husband’s name. She would have asked for a $3,000 credit line, just to pay miscellaneous expenses and to establish some credit on her own. So the computer is told that her household income is $150,000; her mortgage/rent payment is zero. The fact is that her husband’s mortgage payment is $7,000 a month (which he got with a no income verification loan). She had a good credit score, but limited credit since she has only lived in this country for the last three years. The system gave her an approval for a $26,000 line of credit!

This has got to stop. People are going to be learning hard lessons over the next years. It would help, though, if the banks could change their behavior now, before things get any worse. Tomorrow is already too late.

In 2003, Congress passed the Fair and Accurate Credit Transactions Act of 2003. This law was implemented through regulations issued by the Federal Trade Commission in consultation with the federal banking and credit union agencies. It requires all credit card and insurance solicitations to include a disclosure for “prescreened offers.” We are all familiar with them. They are the dozens of credit card offers that are sent, unsolicited, to consumers, usually by mail. The law allows the consumer to opt out of receiving prescreened offers by calling an 800-number.

I think Congress did this backwards. Perhaps it could amend the law. The regulation should have required the consumer to opt in, if they so desire, instead of opting out. That would mean that no one would get an unsolicited credit card offer. If a consumer needs a credit card he or she could be given an option to call an 800-number to opt in. Or the consumer could go to their local bank and apply for a credit card in person. Or the consumer could go online and apply for a credit card. The consumer can also view all the best credit cards, nationally, at bankrate.com. Bankrate.com is an invaluable tool for consumers.

Some other benefits: (1) It would halt the message being sent that credit is free and perhaps limit irresponsible accumulation of credit lines. (2) It would force the banks to become more competitive in their rates. The consumer is going to need a break and they will need it soon. And credit card rates, which are quite often above 22 percent, is piracy. (3) Eliminating mass mailings would save a lot of trees.

I’ve been reviewing many of the banks annual reports over the last month and there is no question that the default rates are on the rise. If Congress doesn’t act today, the bankers will have their hats in their hand before we know it, and doing another a tap dance before the Senate Banking Committee, and asking to be bailed out once again with our tax dollars. Sad, but true.

8 tril US bailout can not get stocks running

The bailout package is at 8 tril - that is 66% of the US debt accumulated in a century comited in 6 months. The scary part is the market reacts still poorly with record low interest rates. The story we know Japan was the same story only that the guys act a bit quicker now. Goldman lowered their estimates again now they see a 33% drop in earnings down tp 55$ that means with a 8 times PE a regular thing in a deep crisis the SPX should trade at 440 and we will see that level leter in 2009.

Excerpts from Bloomberg
Citigroup's $306 Billion Rescue Fueled by Pizza From Domino's

By Ian Katz, Scott Lanman and Alison Fitzgerald

Nov. 25 (Bloomberg) -- The deal to rescue the world's best- known bank was pieced together by regulators over Domino's pizza in near-empty offices one block from the White House.

Citigroup Inc., whose operations in more than 100 countries range from mortgages to microfinance, received a government rescue package to protect the bank from losses on $306 billion of toxic assets. The agreement, meant to stabilize the company after the value of its stock plunged 60 percent last week, boosted the shares 58 percent in New York Stock Exchange composite trading yesterday.

The effort to prop up the bank included an all-night stay Saturday at its Park Avenue headquarters in New York by about a half-dozen examiners from the U.S. Office of the Comptroller of the Currency, according to a person familiar with the matter. The attempt showed how quickly regulators are forced to move when investors dump the shares of large, interconnected financial institutions. Like Bear Stearns Cos. in March and Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. in September, Citigroup lost investors' confidence.


Fed Commits $800 Billion More to Unfreeze Lending (Update3)

By Scott Lanman and Dawn Kopecki

Nov. 25 (Bloomberg) -- The Federal Reserve took two new steps to unfreeze credit for homebuyers, consumers and small businesses, committing up to $800 billion.

The central bank will purchase as much as $600 billion in debt issued or backed by government-chartered housing-finance companies. It will also set up a program of $200 billion to support consumer and small-business loans, the Fed said in statements today in Washington.

With today’s announcement, the central bank is starting to use some of the unorthodox policy tools that Chairman Ben S. Bernanke outlined as a Fed governor six years ago. Policy makers are aiming to prevent a financial collapse and stamp out the threat of deflation.

“They’re trying to put funds into the system, trying to unfreeze these markets,” said William Poole, the former St. Louis Fed president, in an interview with Bloomberg Television. “Clearly, the Fed and the Treasury are beginning to take a large amount of credit risk.”

General perspectives - behind the matrix

First off all let me say those predictions are pretty scary even for me as I did call the events happening now already 2-3 years ago and although Marc Faber has the 'Gloom and Doom' brand my friends and people I am associated with think and thought I was too much sometimes with all my bad news. Its not easy to be the messenger of bad news but I could not help it - thats a reason why I started this blog it was unbearable to see all the things going on and people did not see it. Its very frustrating to see what happens on this planet - some people call conspiracy theory - but open history books and its a regular thing that people with power seek for more power. The confusing part is within kingdoms it was clear to everyone although they did not have the WEB' - in democracies this fact is more subtle and hidden as the basic mission of democracy is nt to have the power in a few hands but in the people's. Its very tempting to use the power democracies give people on time to be abused for people behind the scene's and that is whats happening. We have 'shadow kingdom's' now with the Russian's living it quite openly but in the old world we have the Rothschild's and other families who think for various reason's they deserve to have power but are well trained to do that very subtle buy making presidents or governments as they see that people who vote are easy to manipulate as they do not take their democracies with all the obligations but instead vote for some pathetic lies and promises of low taxes.
Anyway thats a different topic - for now I only can say that as a student of astrology for 14 years now the probability the predictions turn out are at 70% if that can be put in quantitative terms. The '70' is just the means of being confident over 50% not scientific provable method. Without going into details ( plenty of it was discussed in earlier blogs) we are heading for big trouble but as the famous Chinese sign for crisis also carries the chance for change - I firmly believe the/this crisis we will/are see(ing) is a chance for a transformation to a better world hopefully. We have not learned the lessons yet (ı include myself absolutely to that) as we get distracted too easily by random illusions and therefor a very easy to manipulate. Life is not about paying down mortgages and student loans - what they make us believe as an essential of modern society life. Why should you take for granted that your income gets taxed, a country has to be in debt or even more pathetic why do you have to pay taxes (VAT or other taxes) after your income has been taxed already. democracies are worse than any mobster or mafia could ever be they take away half of your money you worked for so hard and almost keep no promise they made as they campaigned to get elected. They bailout their sponsers like wallstreet and tell you thats need to save the economy - which is completely bull..... - as they could implement a new federal banking system and give the same money directly to homeowners or small businesses which they do not do .
what we have right now is far from what democracies were made for and only serve the interests of very few 'chosen'ones. That we had for centuries and had a different name like monarchies had all over the world - they use the frame of democracy but intrinsic operations are completely organized to serve the ones in power behind the scenes - make no mistake not the president of USA is the most powerful man - its the people who make the presidents. Obama is an excellent example for that - not that I favour McCain - thats basically the same thing. As long as people had their 'life' and the illusion it was nice and evolving - since most are just slaves of their banks and the IRS or whoever has the power to screw with them people were to willing to accept the terms of modern slavery. Now as things turn ugly and we are still in the 4th inning they might be aware by suffering that something is wrong and its not the toxic CDO's they are just a symbol of what is rotten. The problem is the comfort of the way we live but its a very sophisticated system of distractions to handle anyway. First there is this 'stress' created to exhaust you - popular technique to treat slaves keep them exhausted and scared. When you come home at some point the family creates more stress as everybody had its share outside in school or wherever you go these days basically. Values how people treat each other have been diluted by confusing messages by 'guru's' of education and a brainwashing machine which works perfectly through TV shows and general mass media inputs which suggest a model of living which is not appropriate. Life is reduced to paying down mortages and credit card debts , watching TV ( men get their sport to distract them - since they can channel all their frustration and aggression on defeating the other teams) and women get reality shows and soaps - I know I am generalizing to keep it simple and you raise the kids to live the same way and die. well thats not what I call life.
Anyway why are banks allowed to charge insane interests ( no one from government objects that since its free capitalism right? - but that the morons blow away trillions by faking profits they never had to pay themselves insane bonuses they never deserved the government come to save their ass - give me a freaking break - that stinks - just use your common sense and do not believe the propaganda machine. They have been stealing big time money by understating the inflation hence they could underpay your work and pay to low interest on the money you saved after paying all this mobster taxes. Thats outrages and no one should except that and if Obama does not change that scheme (it does not look so - he will make the expected monstrous aid program to distract you from truth - as any other president) you should fire him with his rat pack of advisors they are the same guys who screwed America under Clinton but not any different than the ratpack under Bush. Its the system created to screw the people it does not really matter anymore for whom you vote these days all the same corrupt breed and its hard to resist the system as you belong to the club of the privileged ones.
Its time for revolution again remember how the independance of America started 'no taxation without representation' ( Boston Teaparty) - well demand that you are realy represented by your Senator and Congressman/lady - no phony congress grillings - also a distraction technique - demand that the interests of the people are executed not the ones who sponsored the politicians.

A different and scaring perspective - but she was right in many instances

http://astrologtanja.blogspot.com/2008/03/vangas-predictions-for-this-world.html

Vanga’s predictions for this world…
Baba Vanga, the Bulgarian Prophetess and Healer.


Vanga (Vangelia) Pandeva was born on January 31st, 1911 in Strumica (today in Republic of Macedonia) and spent her life living in Bulgaria until she died on August 11th, 1996. She lost her sight when she was 12 years old when she was swept away by a tornado. She was found alive with sand in her eyes, which was the reason for her blindness. Vanga began making predictions when she was 16 years old. She became very famous for having this gift rather quickly. Many of the statesman including Hitler had visited her and it is reported that Hitler left her house looking upset.


Vanga’s predictions include:
“At the turn of the century, in August of 1999 or 2000, Kursk will be covered with water, and the whole world will be weeping over it.” (1980)


- The prediction did not make any sense back then. Sadly, twenty years on, it did make a lot of sense. A Russian nuclear submarine sunk in an accident in August of 2000. The submarine was named Kursk. Kursk - the city, could by no means have been covered with water (probably that’s why her prediction seemed so unrealistic at first).



“Horror, horror! The American brethren will fall after being attacked by the steel birds. The wolves will be howling in a bush, and innocent blood will be gushing.” (1989)


- Happened as predicted. The World Trade Center Towers in New York collapsed following terrorist attacks on September 11, 2001 . The WTC Towers were dubbed “Twins” or “Brothers.” The terrorists drove passenger planes –“the steel birds”- into the towers. “The bush” obviously relates to the surname of the current U.S. president.


Below I’m including a big article about the predictions that she made about the future, and for visitors who don’t speak Russian, I’ve translated each prediction she had made word to word, with text in perefencies being not my comment but the comment by the editor of a newspaper… You can either laugh and dismiss it, or take it word to word and become paranoid. The fact is no one knows whether any of it is going to come true or not, so i guess we’ll have to wait and see, but your comments are welcome.


She also predicted:
“Everything will melt away like ice yet the glory of Vladimir , the glory of Russia are the only things that will remain. Russia will not only survive, it will dominate the world.”(1979)


- The prediction was made in Soviet times when just a few people were using the term “ Russia .” It remains to be seen which Vladimir Vanga referred to. There are three real candidates: The Prince Vladimir, Vladimir Lenin, the current president, or the future one…


Click to Enlarge


2008 - Assassination attempts on four heads of states. Conflict in Indonesia. That becomes one of the causes for the start of WWIII.

2010 - The start of WWIII. The war will begin in November of 2010 and will end in October of 2014. Will start as a normal war, then will include usage of nuclear and chemical weapons.

2011 - Due to the radioactive showers in Northern Hemisphere - no animals or plants will be left. Muslims will begin chemical war against Europeans who are still alive.

2014 - Most of the people in this world will have skin cancer and skin related diseases. (as a result of chemical wars).

2016 - Europe is almost empty

2018 - China becomes the new world power.

2023 - Earth’s orbit will change slightly

2025 - Europe is still barely populated

2028 - Development of a new energy source. (Probably controller thermonuclear reaction) Hunger slowly stops being a problem. Piloted spaceship to Venus deploys.

2033 - Polar ice caps melt. World ocean levels rise.

2043 - World economy is prosperous. Muslims are running Europe.

2046 - Any organs can be mass produced. Exchange of body organs becomes the favorite method of treatment.

2066 - During it’s attack on Rome (which is under control of the Muslims) U.S.A. uses a new method of weapons - has to do with climate change. Sharp freezing.

2076 - No class society (communism)

2084 - The rebirth of the nature.

2088 - New disease. - People are getting old in few seconds.

2097 - This disease is cured.

2100 - Man made Sun is lighting up the dark side of the planet Earth.

2111 - People become robots.

2123 - Wars between small countries. Big countries don’t get evolved.

2125 - In Hungary the signals from Space are received. (People will be reminded of Vanga again)

2130 - Colonies under water (advices from aliens)

2154 - Animals become half-humans.

2167 - New religion

2170 - Big drought.

2183 - Collony on Mars becomes nuclear nation and is asking for independence from the Earth. (same way as U.S. did from England)

2187 - Successfully two volcano eruptions are stopped.

2195 - Sea colonies are fully supplied with energy and food.

2196 - Full mixture between Asians and Europeans.

2201 - Thermonuclear reactions on the Sun slow down. Temperatures Drop.

2221 - In the search of Alien life, human beings engage with something very freighting.

2256 - Spaceship brings a freighting new disease into Earth.

2262 - Orbits of planets start to change progressively. Mars is under a threat of being hit by a comet.

2271 - Physic properties are calculated over, since they changed.

2273 - Mix of yellow, white, and black race. New race.

2279 - Energy out of nothing (probably from vacuum or black holes)

2288 - Travel through time. New contacts with the aliens.

2291 - Sun cools. Attempts to fire it up again are taken.

2296 - Bright flashes on the Sun. Force of gravity changes. Old space stations and satellites begin to fall

2299 - In France, there is a partisan uprising against Islam.

2302 - New important new laws and mysteries about the universe are uncovered.

2304 - The mystery of the Moon is uncovered.

2341 - Something frightening is closing in with Earth from the space.

2354 - Accident on one of the man made suns, will result in drought.

2371 - Mighty hunger.

2378 - New and fast growing race.

2480 - Two man made suns will collide. Earth is in the dark.

3005 - War on Mars. Trajectory of planets changes.

3010 - Comet will ram into the Moon. Around Earth there is a belt of rocks and dust.

3797 - By this time, everything living on Earth dies. But humans are able to put in the essentials for the beginning of a new life in a new star system.

via pravda.ru

Monday, November 24, 2008

SPX technical outlook (part2)

On the left hand the Composite monthly which shows the same observation of a negative bias out of the ordinary. Trading below 200 month MA, 50 week has crossed 200 week MA's and here we even have broken below a longterm trendline. The Comp has a similar trading pattern the Nikkei had over 19 years - that means it is heading for new lows but it should at some point at least test the 2002 lows as well (more likely 2009). More sectors building lows though as the CRB has a weekly 13 now and Oil is in a week 12 count. Usually lows are made with intermarket-divergences as some sectors or regions make the lows earlier/later. Here for the Comp we also have the snap back potentialm as it trades far below monthly Bollingerbands as well. The SPX is in month 6 and week 10 count hence it still needs to trade lower to finish the current downleg.

Citigroup technical outlook

The Citi weekly shows the basic effect of the Bollingerband - Citi snapped back in. The weekly count though only at an 11 and currently in week 9 - the message is we need to go down once again and make even new lows which is also the message of the price pattern. That is in an overall market expectation the same bias we need to go lower to complete a trough bu will take a bit more time than I expected but on the other hand makes completely sense as so many want the year end rally thats the low probability it might occur then. we have to follow closely as the BKX made the weekly 13 and gives a red alert for a low but that might still take some time to be accomplished.

Berkshire - the second manipulation - Buffett lost his grip

Insider trading makes me sick and tired these days even more than ever. Fridays miracle rally in Berkshire stocks - around 16% in one day and Barrons comes out with a bullish story on the WE - that stinks. Barrons is not what it used to be anymore since Murdoch took over the WSJ and Barrons. Its now a propaganda and cheerleader medium but keep in mind that Mr. Buffett lost his grip on markets already 2 years ago and it will get worse - so stay away from that stock on the long side. The story below is based on poor ground as you do not need that stock to participate and what the author might not know about astrology proves to be dangerous for insurance stocks especially the next 2-3 years the potential for damage is extremely high and just the opposite is likely that Berkshire makes extrodinary losses going forward.


Excerpt from Barrons

Finally, Berkshire Looks Undervalued

By ANDREW BARY | MORE ARTICLES BY AUTHOR

Ignore misplaced skepticism -- Buffet's baby is finally cheap again.

THE FINANCIAL CRISIS HAS GOTTEN SO BAD, some investors are even questioning Berkshire Hathaway 's strength. But the worries seem overblown.

Berkshire's Class A shares (ticker: BRK/A) fell 10% last week. En route to their Friday closing price of $90,000 a share, they touched a five-year low of $74,100 amid Thursday's market rout. The stock is off 36% for this year.

The selloff reflects concern about Berkshire's equity portfolio, valued at $76 billion on Sept. 30, plus a sizable bet involving put options on $37 billion of equity indexes, including the Standard & Poor's 500 and foreign markets. The derivatives bet, while ultimately likely to be profitable, looks like a rare mistake by Berkshire CEO Warren Buffett, who couldn't be reached for comment on this story.

[buffet]
Santi Burgos/Bloomberg News
The master investor's use of "financial weapons of mass destruction" has proved to be destructive indeed.

How much Berkshire has lost on a mark-to-market basis isn't clear (our estimate is $5 billion) but Wall Street seems to have overpunished the stock for the bet. As well, Berkshire stands to make record profits in '09.

The puts give their buyers the right to make Berkshire buy the indexes at a set price, based on the indexes' level on the day the options were sold, mostly from 2005 through 2007. The puts, whose current value is difficult to determine, don't jibe with Buffett's frequent criticism of derivatives as "financial weapons of mass destruction."

Berkshire remains one of world's strongest companies, with a rare triple-A credit rating and a $140 billion stock-market value. It has loads of earnings power, due to dozens of businesses, including auto-insurer Geico, Shaw carpets and Benjamin Moore, although many are being stung by the weak economy.

[chart]

Barron's took heat from Berkshire boosters with our bearish cover story on Berkshire last December, when the stock traded around $144,000. Berkshire has been hurt by declining profits in the auto-insurance and reinsurance markets, both of which might be bottoming. But now is probably a good time to buy. Looking out to 2009, Berkshire's earnings could get a lift from improving conditions in the insurance market, and from some new high-yielding investments, including $8 billion of 10% preferred stock of Goldman Sachs (GS) and General Electric (GE).

If the stock market rallies in 2009, Berkshire probably will see record profits. Its operating profits this year could be about $5,400 per Class A share, excluding losses on equity and junk-bond derivatives that may cause a fourth-quarter loss. One big investor says earnings could hit $7,000 a share by 2010, a modest 13 times the current stock price.

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