THE DOT - if this turns orange or red be alert

Wednesday, September 29, 2010

Dow weekly update

The Dow has broken above the 10700 and is now heading for the 11250 highs which are due even the next days or sometime early Nov. The count is at 9 with a 13 mandatory to finish the current move - which means at least 3 higher closes from yesterday. Since the 200 week MA is around 11000 that is the likely target for the window dresser campaign. Another indicator is the EUR which runs at a similar pace also counting a 9 with a 1.37-8 target. Also we are in a week 4 count with typically 4-6 being corrective weeks as we are in the window dressing mode the current 4 still trends up and Venus being in a pleasant angle to the USA Venus Jupiter and Sun constellation for now but turning retrogade on the 8th Oct a correction (likely a sharper one ) should start around the upcoming weekend. In order to go short wait for the 12 to kick in or the DOW to hit 11000 as the risk for now is limited to the old high at 11250 but the downside is rather 5-8 % -m which is exactly the ratio one should bet on.

Sunday, September 26, 2010

General market update

After Apple and Amazon reached the targets of 290-300 and 160 thereby overshooting weekly Bollingers - we can now expect within the window dressing week a wild ride. The Full Moon on the Equinox and in conjunction to Jupiter - Uranus produced the best Sep in 70 years and the best month in the last decade. In the last decade we had 2 quarters like this with a bit of follow through but finally a correction in the 10 % range.
I had written in earlier posts that I was expecting such a move but underestimated the speed - still I think we will have starting next week a sharp correction but before we might even reach the 205--60 level NDX and test the 1900 level thereafter within 2-3 weeks. That should be followed by another stampede as the shorts will squeezed again and the NDX target of 2100 (triangle pattern target) should be reached early Nov..
I checked the monthly charts where old counts still wait at 10 who will likely be completed to the 13 counts. NDX needs to go a little higher to trigger the 11 already this month. The scenario looks very likely taking into account the record short interest at the NYSE and the still neutral sentiments - we are nowhere close to a real exhaustion level except for short term overbought factor.
The cyber bomb dropped on Iran was probably a better idea than a surgical nuke strike which still can happen to wrap it up - but in any case an attack on Iran will not be unanswered I am afraid plus Russia and China must be now on the highest alert themselves. If America or ısrael were able to do that imagine what a game changer that is and a variety of actions will follow soon in order to present the equilibrium of strength on both sides or simply to retaliate.

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Lack Of Capitulation By Shorts, As NYSE Short Interest Remains Near Record, Explains Parabolic September "Flush" Ramp

A week ago, when we pointed out that the NYSE short interest had surged to nearly its highest levels in over a year at 14.4 billion shares, we speculated that as the market surge appeared to be moderating, that the 600+ million in new incremental shorts had covered. This, of course, happened before the most recent parabolic ramp in stocks (which was spun by CNBC as "validated" by Tepper's "buy stocks no matter what" comments). Friday's NYSE SI update now explains the seemingly ceaseless surge in stocks despite constantly deteriorating economic news. The reason: the gross short interest between August 31 and September 15 was completely unchanged! It appears that just as retail investors refuse to allocate capital to stocks regardless of how artificially high the market goes, so shorts completely ignored the ramp in the market from ~ 1050 On August 30 to around 1125 on September 15: short remained dead even at 14.4 billion. So what happens? State Street/BoNY gets the daily short report, passes it on the the repo desks, and tells them to pull the borrow in the most shorted stocks, as apparently the message to the shorts just isn't getting through. And what better way to force a short ramp than to keep shorts massively squeezed. But because the stubborn shorts don't buy the ramp in stocks, they keep putting on new replacement shorts, which has led the market to keep recycling the weakest hands, endless retail outflows be damned. Which means that the squeeze could easily continue for so long as the State Streets of the world believe that the shorts will finally capitulate, and make the rally self-sustaining. So far it is not working.

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Al-Jazeera Confirms Iran Nuclear And Industrial Sites Crippled By Stuxnet, Time To Go Long Symantec?

After last week's Stuxnet disclosures, it was only a matter of time before the viral sabotage was flushed into the open, with Iran confirming that it had been in fact attacked. As expected, Al-Jazeera has just confirmed that not only has Bushehr been infected, but so have numerous other industrial sites all over Iran. Yet despite the pervasive attack, "no damage or disruption of nuclear facilities has yet been reported, however." What is surprising is that Iran has made such a major media splash on the topic: one would assume that demonstrating such broad cyberdefensive weakness would not be in the country's favor...

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Why QE2 + QE Lite Mean The Fed Will Purchase Almost $3 Trillion In Treasurys And Set The Stage For The Monetary Endgame

Recently the debate over when QE2 will occur has taken a back seat over the question of what the implications of the Fed's latest intervention in monetary policy will be, as it is now certain that Bernanke will attempt a fresh round of monetary stimulus to prevent the recent deceleration in the economy from transforming into outright deflation. Whether or not the Fed will decide to engage in QE2 on its November 3 meeting, or as others have suggested December 14, and maybe even as far out as January 25, the actual event is now a certainty. And while many have discussed this topic in big picture terms, most notably David Tepper, who on Friday stated that no matter what, stocks will benefit from QE2, few if any have actually considered what the impact of QE2 will be on the Fed's balance sheet, and how the change in composition in Fed assets will impact all marketable asset classes. We have conducted a rough analysis on how QE2 will reshape the Fed's balance sheet. We were stunned to realize that over the next 6 months the Fed may be the net buyer of nearly $3 trillion in Treasurys, an action which will likely set off a chain of events which could result in rates dropping all the way to zero, stocks surging, and gold (and other precious metals) going from current price levels to well in the 5 digit range.


Well this is another interesting angle as there are UFO'S no doubt - if earth would be all the universe ever created I would say poor job universe - I hope and believe that specious far ahead developed to our species exist and have been / are on this planet. Hence as much as the article below might be right that such a scenario might be used to get the NWO agenda ahead.
Still any force or power creates as a natural law a counter force or power as energy gets never lost just changes its form - nothing gets lost. Nothing can be destroyed entirely - even as your body might go back as one dies - every word spoke , every thought and clearly all actions keep moving on indefinetely and are part of the overall energy field. They will be on different energy levels and can be activated or activate yourself. To some level you might even need to shield yourself against them and water is one method we all subconsciously know about.
As a hoax might be well in place we also will have to to acknowledge that exterestrial beings do exist and are among us on both sides of the aile.


von Braun: Beware Fake Alien Threat from Space

by L C Vincent

Dr. Wernher von Braun was a top ranking SS officer who was also the head of the Nazi rocket program during WWII. Von Braun was brought to America after the war because our government considered his knowledge and expertise too vital to fall into the hands of our enemies.

Dr. von Braun and his colleagues brought with them a wealth of information gleaned from other top Nazi scientists like his boss, SS General Hans Kammler. Von Braun may have been privy to work on anti gravity propulsion vehicles reputedly under development during the last days of The Third Reich. Over the years of his tenure, von Braun may also have enjoyed access to NASA’s secret programs. It certainly does seem this way, as von Braun apparently began to see the “big picture” regarding the true goals of America’s space program and how the military-industrial complex was manipulating it according to a secret, hidden agenda during the latter years of his life.

Dr. Carol Rosin first met Dr. Wernher von Braun in February of 1974. It was at this time, shortly before his death in 1977, that von Braun confided to Dr. Rosin the details of this secret space agenda.

Inviting her into his office, Von Braun stunned Dr. Rosin by describing this plan, point for point, as well as describing in detail exactly where it was all leading: planetary control under an oppressive One World Government.

According to Dr. Rosin, ( von Braun then gave her one supreme assignment to thwart this plan: to stop the weaponization of space. Failure to do so would lead to calamity for the human race as a secretive trans-national powe r, already in existence, would move to permanently take control of this planet thru a hoaxed alien invasion from outer space.

According to von Braun, space based weapons, later known as the “Star Wars” program, were to be publicly promoted as our space “shield” against the evil Russians. Then they would be promoted as our defense against terrorists from Third World countries (‘rogue’ nations or ‘nations of concern’). Then their necessity would be justified as protection against asteroids and meteors, and the “last card,” the final justification according to von Braun, would be their installation in orbit against an extraterrestrial threat from outer space.

Von Braun told Dr. Rosin that she would begin to notice a certain “spin” on the news, which would illustrate the need to build space-based weaponry because our enemies “might” have these weapons, so our intelligence community would proceed on the assumption that they DO have these weapons. As we now know, this is exactly how the Star Wars program transpired.

According to Wernher von Braun, all of these publicly announced threats were lies. Von Braun cited the reality of nuclear suitcase bombs being available even then, as well as chemical, viral, bacterial and biological terror weapons against which these space based weapons would be useless.

More importantly, von Braun told Dr. Rosin in 1974 that we already had the technology to build anti gravity vehicles and entire transportation systems which did not require so-called ‘fossil’ fuels but instead used “beams” of energy, thereby eliminating all pollution from these sources permanently. Perhaps Dr. von Braun had seen anti gravity vehicles with his own eyes in Germany before the end of the war, as wel l as their continued development at other secret technology sites afterwards.

Von Braun further told Dr. Rosin that we had the ability to transform our “war” based military/industrial complex into a space and energy industry for the benefit of all of humanity, and that we had the capability of building entirely nonpolluting transportation technologies using this same limitless energy, while ending the arms race without dislocating the jobs associated with it. Mankind could transition to a new industrial paradigm and usher in an era of peace, plenty and prosperity for everyone on Earth.

Of course, what is equally interesting is what Dr. von Braun left unsaid. If space based weapons technologies are not really being developed to protect the U.S. and its allies against rogue nations and their weapons; if, indeed, such weapons are useless against suit case nuclear bombs, as well as chemical, biological and viral weapons, then exactly why are they being developed? Could select populations of resistors, whether nation-states or isolated groups opposed to the coming New World Order, be singled out and eliminated?

That is certainly one possibility. Yet another possibility is that such space based weapons will be part of the “smoke and mirrors” light show designed to terrify the population of the Earth when “Project Blue Beam” debuts, with its false, projected presentation of an alien invasion.

According to Dr. Steven Greer, the head of the “Disclosure Project,” “….the prospect that a shadowy, para-governmental and transnational entity exists that has kept UFO’s secret — and is planning a deception that will dwarf the events of 9/11…” is a scenario that more people within the depths of our government have begun to reveal.

If Dr. Werhner von Braun already knew that anti-gravitic technology existed in 1974, then we must also conclude that part of the coming alien “light show” and invasion scenario scheduled to frighten us into the arms of a One World Government, utilizing the technology described in Project Blue Beam, is based on anti-gravitic “alien” craft under the planetary control of the unseen Illuminati hand which silently moves under the radar of the world’s staged media.

Even Dr. Greer, who had brought Dr. Rosin to Washington D. C. to publicly testify about Dr. von Braun’s warning and concern for the future of humanity based upon the nefarious plans he had uncovered during his tenure at NASA, admits that he was at first skeptical of the reality behind this proposal.

Dr. Greer writes: “Since 1992 I have seen this script unveiled to me by at least a dozen well-placed insiders. Of course, initially I laughed, thinking this just too absurd and far-fetched…. and yet others told me explicitly that things that looked like UFOs, but that are built and under the control of deeply secretive ´black´ projects, were being used to simulate – hoax – ET-appearing events, including some abductions and cattle mutilations, to sow the early seeds of cultural fear regarding life in outer space. And that at some point after global terrorism, events would unfold that would utilize the now-revealed Alien Reproduction Vehicles (ARVs, or reversed-engineered UFOs made by humans by studying actual ET craft) to hoax an attack on Earth.”

The goal of this hoaxed space alien invasion was simple: control thru fear, to drive governments of all nations to submit and unite under one central authority, a One World Government, and as Dr. Greer said: “…to justify eventually spending trillions on space weapons… th us uniting the world in fear, in militarism and war.”

Of course, we have been purposely conditioned over the years to view any space aliens as threatening and predatory. Such films as “Independence Day,” “Alien”, “War of the Worlds” and others produced by Hollywood studios have had their effect on the subconscious mind of the general public. As Dr. Greer states: “…this mental conditioning to fear ET has been subtly reinforced for decades, in preparation for future deceptions.”

The essence of the plan is simple: create an anonymous enemy “out there” in the limitless void of space. As Dr. Greer explains: “By commingling fact with fiction, and by hoaxing UFO events that can look terrifying, The Plan is to eventually crate a new, sustainable, off-planet enemy… Wernher von Braun warned of such a hoax, as a pretext for putting war in space.”

Dr. Carol Rosin revealed this information before the national press in Washington, D.C. where she also said that she was willing to make the exact same statement under oath to Congress. Of course, the official main stream media never saw fit to make mention of this startling pronouncement by Dr. Rosin.

The possibility of an “off planet” space fleet already in existence was given even more credence recently when a young Scottish hacker by the name of Gary McKinnon recently broke into the Pentagon’s computers and reputedly came up the names of some of our “off-world” U.S. space fleet (identified under the abbreviation: USSS), two specific space ships, (the USSS LeMay and the USSS Hillenkoetter), the names of the various crews, their ranks, and transfer assignments between various “off Earth” space ships.

Apparently, this computer security breach so enraged the brass at the Pentagon that The U.S. Government is currently seeking to extradite McKinnon from the U.K. to face charges of computer hacking with a punishment of LIFE IN PRISON! Certainly this is one way to permanently silence an embarrassing discoverer of forbidden information.

Wernher von Braun, his assistant Dr. Carol Rosin, and Dr. Steven Greer of The Disclosure Project have done their best to warn the world at large of this coming deception based on secret energy technology, new visual projection technology and the continued demonization of space aliens by our media and our military/industrial complex.

Dr. Greer concludes: “Space based weapons are already in place – part of a secret parallel space program that has been operating since the 1960s. ARVs are built and ready to go. Space holographic deception technologies are in place, tested and ready to fire. And the Big Media is a pawn…”

But we do not have to be. Now that we know what The Illuminati and their minions have planned, we can prepare for the greatest deception in human history by warning others, taking stock of our present set of circumstances, and deciding how we might deal with a hoaxed space-alien invasion scenario.

The knowledge that technology may exist today which would end the need for mining, drilling, refinement and distribution of oil, gas, and coal, as well as traditional nuclear energy; which could usher in a new age for the entire human race while eliminating the pretexts for the endless wars which have roiled our planet for the last two hundred years, must give us pause to ponder.

This alternate scenario, that of free energy, of peace, plenty and prosperity and the elimination of pollution forces us to face the dark core of evil wherein the ironically named “Illuminati” reside. For despite the potential of creating a revolutionary leap forward in the history of Mankind, this insidious group continues to plot to keep our world mired in poverty, fear, war, and ignorance while moving to make their dark desire for total control permanent upon this planet.

It is time to choose which destiny we truly desire. Nothing worthwhile in life ever comes without struggle. The Illuminati have given us the challenge of our lives. May we be prepared for the coming battle.

L C VIncent

Might be the surgical strike on Iran's nuklear facility has already started

Lets start with something most might not now about freedom rights in the USA - Orwell worst nightmare is up to full speed with technology as the digital world allows to spy on the citizens is common knowledge but they are way ahead with technology we do not hear about on MSM.

Sep 23 1950 Congress passes the McCarran Act, also known as The Internal Security Act of 1950, overriding Harry Truman's veto. The act provides for severe restrictions on civil liberties, suspension of free speech, and placing of undesirable Americans in concentration camps. The act has never been repealed.

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Explosives Found in
World Trade Center Dust

Scientists Discover Both Residues
And Unignited Fragments
Of Nano-Engineered Thermitic Pyrotechnics
In Debris From the Twin Towers

We entered a quantum leap in technology but the first area it gets deployed is military use - well if that can be done instead a real nuke attack we all can be happy as no collateral damage is done in the first round. The question is only if that were to be a successful shutdown of the nuclear plant and some point a retaliation can be expected and if that happens on such a subtle way can be doubted

Stuxnet malware is 'weapon' out to destroy ... Iran's Bushehr nuclear plant?

Cyber security experts say they have identified the world's first known cyber super weapon designed specifically to destroy a real-world target – a factory, a refinery, or just maybe a nuclear power plant.

The cyber worm, called Stuxnet, has been the object of intense study since its detection in June. As more has become known about it, alarm about its capabilities and purpose have grown. Some top cyber security experts now say Stuxnet's arrival heralds something blindingly new: a cyber weapon created to cross from the digital realm to the physical world – to destroy something.

At least one expert who has extensively studied the malicious software, or malware, suggests Stuxnet may have already attacked its target – and that it may have been Iran's Bushehr nuclear power plant, which much of the world condemns as a nuclear weapons threat.

The appearance of Stuxnet created a ripple of amazement among computer security experts. Too large, too encrypted, too complex to be immediately understood, it employed amazing new tricks, like taking control of a computer system without the user taking any action or clicking any button other than inserting an infected memory stick. Experts say it took a massive expenditure of time, money, and software engineering talent to identify and exploit such vulnerabilities in industrial control software systems.

Unlike most malware, Stuxnet is not intended to help someone make money or steal proprietary data. Industrial control systems experts now have concluded, after nearly four months spent reverse engineering Stuxnet, that the world faces a new breed of malware that could become a template for attackers wishing to launch digital strikes at physical targets worldwide. Internet link not required.

"Until a few days ago, people did not believe a directed attack like this was possible," Ralph Langner, a German cyber-security researcher, told the Monitor in an interview. He was slated to present his findings at a conference of industrial control system security experts Tuesday in Rockville, Md. "What Stuxnet represents is a future in which people with the funds will be able to buy an attack like this on the black market. This is now a valid concern."

A gradual dawning of Stuxnet's purpose

It is a realization that has emerged only gradually.

Stuxnet surfaced in June and, by July, was identified as a hypersophisticated piece of malware probably created by a team working for a nation state, say cyber security experts. Its name is derived from some of the filenames in the malware. It is the first malware known to target and infiltrate industrial supervisory control and data acquisition (SCADA) software used to run chemical plants and factories as well as electric power plants and transmission systems worldwide. That much the experts discovered right away.

But what was the motive of the people who created it? Was Stuxnet intended to steal industrial secrets – pressure, temperature, valve, or other settings –and communicate that proprietary data over the Internet to cyber thieves?

By August, researchers had found something more disturbing: Stuxnet appeared to be able to take control of the automated factory control systems it had infected – and do whatever it was programmed to do with them. That was mischievous and dangerous.

But it gets worse. Since reverse engineering chunks of Stuxnet's massive code, senior US cyber security experts confirm what Mr. Langner, the German researcher, told the Monitor: Stuxnet is essentially a precision, military-grade cyber missile deployed early last year to seek out and destroy one real-world target of high importance – a target still unknown.

"Stuxnet is a 100-percent-directed cyber attack aimed at destroying an industrial process in the physical world," says Langner, who last week became the first to publicly detail Stuxnet's destructive purpose and its authors' malicious intent. "This is not about espionage, as some have said. This is a 100 percent sabotage attack."

A guided cyber missile

On his website, Langner lays out the Stuxnet code he has dissected. He shows step by step how Stuxnet operates as a guided cyber missile. Three top US industrial control system security experts, each of whom has also independently reverse-engineered portions of Stuxnet, confirmed his findings to the Monitor.

"His technical analysis is good," says a senior US researcher who has analyzed Stuxnet, who asked for anonymity because he is not allowed to speak to the press. "We're also tearing [Stuxnet] apart and are seeing some of the same things."

Other experts who have not themselves reverse-engineered Stuxnet but are familiar with the findings of those who have concur with Langner's analysis.

"What we're seeing with Stuxnet is the first view of something new that doesn't need outside guidance by a human – but can still take control of your infrastructure," says Michael Assante, former chief of industrial control systems cyber security research at the US Department of Energy's Idaho National Laboratory. "This is the first direct example of weaponized software, highly customized and designed to find a particular target."

"I'd agree with the classification of this as a weapon," Jonathan Pollet, CEO of Red Tiger Security and an industrial control system security expert, says in an e-mail.

One researcher's findingsLangner's research, outlined on his website Monday, reveals a key step in the Stuxnet attack that other researchers agree illustrates its destructive purpose. That step, which Langner calls "fingerprinting," qualifies Stuxnet as a targeted weapon, he says.

Langner zeroes in on Stuxnet's ability to "fingerprint" the computer system it infiltrates to determine whether it is the precise machine the attack-ware is looking to destroy. If not, it leaves the industrial computer alone. It is this digital fingerprinting of the control systems that shows Stuxnet to be not spyware, but rather attackware meant to destroy, Langner says.

Stuxnet's ability to autonomously and without human assistance discriminate among industrial computer systems is telling. It means, says Langner, that it is looking for one specific place and time to attack one specific factory or power plant in the entire world.

"Stuxnet is the key for a very specific lock – in fact, there is only one lock in the world that it will open," Langner says in an interview. "The whole attack is not at all about stealing data but about manipulation of a specific industrial process at a specific moment in time. This is not generic. It is about destroying that process."

So far, Stuxnet has infected at least 45,000 industrial control systems around the world, without blowing them up – although some victims in North America have experienced some serious computer problems, Eric Byres, a Canadian expert, told the Monitor. Most of the victim computers, however, are in Iran, Pakistan, India, and Indonesia. Some systems have been hit in Germany, Canada, and the US, too. Once a system is infected, Stuxnet simply sits and waits – checking every five seconds to see if its exact parameters are met on the system. When they are, Stuxnet is programmed to activate a sequence that will cause the industrial process to self-destruct, Langner says.

Langner's analysis also shows, step by step, what happens after Stuxnet finds its target. Once Stuxnet identifies the critical function running on a programmable logic controller, or PLC, made by Siemens, the giant industrial controls company, the malware takes control. One of the last codes Stuxnet sends is an enigmatic “DEADF007.” Then the fireworks begin, although the precise function being overridden is not known, Langner says. It may be that the maximum safety setting for RPMs on a turbine is overridden, or that lubrication is shut off, or some other vital function shut down. Whatever it is, Stuxnet overrides it, Langner’s analysis shows.

"After the original code [on the PLC] is no longer executed, we can expect that something will blow up soon," Langner writes in his analysis. "Something big."

For those worried about a future cyber attack that takes control of critical computerized infrastructure – in a nuclear power plant, for instance – Stuxnet is a big, loud warning shot across the bow, especially for the utility industry and government overseers of the US power grid.

"The implications of Stuxnet are very large, a lot larger than some thought at first," says Mr. Assante, who until recently was security chief for the North American Electric Reliability Corp. "Stuxnet is a directed attack. It's the type of threat we've been worried about for a long time. It means we have to move more quickly with our defenses – much more quickly."

Has Stuxnet already hit its target?It might be too late for Stuxnet's target, Langner says. He suggests it has already been hit – and destroyed or heavily damaged. But Stuxnet reveals no overt clues within its code to what it is after.

A geographical distribution of computers hit by Stuxnet, which Microsoft produced in July, found Iran to be the apparent epicenter of the Stuxnet infections. That suggests that any enemy of Iran with advanced cyber war capability might be involved, Langner says. The US is acknowledged to have that ability, and Israel is also reported to have a formidable offensive cyber-war-fighting capability.

Could Stuxnet's target be Iran's Bushehr nuclear power plant, a facility much of the world condemns as a nuclear weapons threat?

Langner is quick to note that his views on Stuxnet's target is speculation based on suggestive threads he has seen in the media. Still, he suspects that the Bushehr plant may already have been wrecked by Stuxnet. Bushehr's expected startup in late August has been delayed, he notes, for unknown reasons. (One Iranian official blamed the delay on hot weather.)

But if Stuxnet is so targeted, why did it spread to all those countries? Stuxnet might have been spread by the USB memory sticks used by a Russian contractor while building the Bushehr nuclear plant, Langner offers. The same contractor has jobs in several countries where the attackware has been uncovered.

"This will all eventually come out and Stuxnet's target will be known," Langner says. "If Bushehr wasn't the target and it starts up in a few months, well, I was wrong. But somewhere out there, Stuxnet has found its target. We can be fairly certain of that."

Wednesday, September 22, 2010

spx weekly update

The SPX break out above 1130 is not a real one as was the 1040 break a fake out to the downside. Basically we have only reached the high of the left shoulder and within a few days around the 1150 markets should top out and drop at least 5-6 percent.In technical terms the NDX is more important til the midterm elections. NDX missed to make the 12 count yesterday but apple made the 11 which brings us on defcon level for longs but we need a bit more patience. aapl almost reached the 290 target while being in week 12 - both ndx and appl need the 12 and 13 count but only the 12 requires a higher closes above yesterdays highs. whenever that is in place we are on highest alert level for being out of the last longs and entering short positions. entering the final week of this quarter next week window dressing will be very intense as funds want to show good quarter this year to stop the outflow of money - both mutual and hedge funds with full support of the FED running POMO liquidity injections almost on daily basis now to keep markets up. ı expect next week to be the turning point or marking of the current top. for the SPX extreme high could be 1170 but ı doubt we go that high rather around 1150. NDX could make a wild high to the old at 2050 though which could trigger SPX to reach 1170 but from those levels correction will be steeper as 1070 SPX and 1900 NDX are the downside targets.

Tuesday, September 21, 2010

Brainstorming Tuesday

1. The Jupiter Uranus conjunction went into the expected wild top gear and forced even the SPX above the 1130 resistance as the leading index NDX counts 11 - 2 new highs to go. Test of the 2000-10 gap area is mandatory short term and a correction after this steep 3 week rally should follow after the full moon.

In the mean time its no suprise that Munger has lost all dignity as well since Berkshire was one of the biggest beneficiaries of the bailout as their biggest position was financials and heavy loaded with short put positions they made at least 10 bil. by the bailout.


Munger Tells 25 Million Americans To "Suck It In", And To "Thank God For Bank Bailouts" As BRK Benefits From $95 Billion Of TARP Funding

2. We also a rallyhave another myth being pushed forward which is if GOP wins congress that will trigger a rally? I rather think we are lining up for a severe correction to say the least. Although the recession was declared over by June 2009 officially yesterday ( what a blunt and pathetic lie) we are in still in the early depression mode as the almost dead patient gets drugged up and looks like he is alive and doing better. Most statistcal means will not work in manipulated markets as Sep. is the worst month usually - this year it has a spectacular bullish run. Apparently no coincidence as the biggest IPO in history takes place with many others waiting to happen these days. Last year Sep was also a bullish month - hence this statistical evidence is not worth a lot since you have to make money now. Apple is about to top out which is the top performer by fundamental and market means around 290-300 together with insane Amazon around 155-60 the next 3 - days which is a high correlation that all markets are about to see a correction of at least 5 % - but we have another 1-.2% to go on average before the correction starts.


Shock Waves for Stocks If GOP Wins Congress: John Dorfman

Bloomberg Opinion

John Dorfman

A power shift in November favoring Republicans would send shock waves of varying strength through U.S. stock markets. If the GOP regains control of Congress, look for these consequences:

-- Stocks would likely surge for a week or two. Wall Street likes Republicans. And many investors, wary of the large federaldeficit, may believe that Congress would try harder to restrain government spending with the GOP in charge of the Senate and House.

-- The stock market might be stronger for the next two years than it otherwise would have been. Stocks historically have performed best when a Democrat occupies the White House and Republicans control Congress, according to Ned Davis Research.

-- Defense stocks would get a boost. Republicans traditionally favor higher military spending than Democrats.

-- Financial stocks might rally. More fiscal restraint, a possible result of a GOP win, would be good for bank stocks in particular.

-- Health-care stocks would become volatile, see-sawing as investors try to determine whether a Republican Congress will reverse the health-care overhaul passed this year.

Shaky Health Stocks

Health-care reform was championed by President Barack Obama, and he will certainly veto any attempt to repeal it. In my opinion, Republicans might have enough votes to pass a bill attempting to repeal the health-care legislation, but would lack the votes to override a presidential veto.

So look for health insurers -- a group that has been burdened by additional costs under the new law -- to rally temporarily, and then recede. Drug companies, probably net beneficiaries of the legislation, would do just the opposite by first fading, then reviving.

Later in this column, I’ll name specific stocks I think could be helped by a GOP win. First, though, let’s take a look at the Ned Davis Research data on market performance under various permutations of political power.

When a Democrat occupied the White House and Republicans controlled Congress, the Dow Jones Industrial Average advanced an average of 9.6 percent a year, the research firm found.

If Democrats had control of both Congress and the White House, the average annual advance was 7 percent.

Power Shifts

When power was split between a Republican president and Democratic Congress, the average gain was 4.3 percent.

Finally, if Republicans held both the White House and Congress, the result dropped to 1.6 percent, the lowest of any combination.

The Ned Davis statistics cover the period between March 4, 1901, and Sept. 15, 2010. They measure the price change in the Dow Jones Industrial index, and don’t include dividends.

Picking specific stocks that would be helped or hurt by a change in the political winds is tricky because so many forces influence the success of a stock. These include valuations, the competitive landscape, economic momentum and investor psychology.

Defending Defense Stocks

I think defense stocks are good buys now regardless of politics, and they will become even more attractive if Republicans gain additional clout. Pure plays in the defense industry such asLockheed Martin Corp. of Bethesda, Maryland; Raytheon Co. of Waltham, Massachusetts; and General Dynamics Corp. of Falls Church, Virginia, are trading at 10 times earnings or less.

Companies for which defense is important, but not the whole story, include Boeing Co. of Chicago; United Technologies Corp. of Hartford, Connecticut: Babcock & Wilcox Co. in Barberton, Ohio, and Precision Castparts Corp. in Portland, Oregon.

Of those four, I prefer United Technologies. It makes Sikorsky helicopters for the military, and also manufactures products such as elevators for office buildings. At 14 times earnings it looks reasonably priced. As mentioned in a previous column, I would stay away from Boeing, whose debt is four times its equity.

Turning to the banking industry, some stocks worth considering are JPMorgan Chase & Co., Bank of Hawaii Corp. and Arrow Financial Corp.

When the government arranged a shotgun wedding for Bear Stearns Cos. two years ago, it was New York-based JP Morgan that officials asked to be the groom. The stock sells for 12 times earnings and slightly less than book value (assets minus liabilities per share).

Bank Bets

Honolulu-based Bank of Hawaii experienced only slightly lower profits during the recession. It is now benefitting from resurgent tourism on its home island.

Arrow Financial, of Glens Falls, New York, is parent of Glens Falls National Bank & Trust Co. and Saratoga National Bank & Trust Co., both located in upstate New York. It posted a 1.24 percent return on assets last year, ranking among the nation’s better banks, and sells for moderate valuations. The shares trade at 12 times earnings and the dividend yield is 4 percent.

For those who may wonder whether any political bias affects the way I view the election’s impact on the market, I consider myself a Democrat with an independent steak.

Disclosure note: I own shares of General Dynamics personally and for clients. I have no long or short positions in the other stocks discussed in this column.

(John Dorfman, chairman of Thunderstorm Capital in Boston, is a columnist for Bloomberg News. The opinions expressed are his own. His firm or clients may own or trade securities discussed in this column.)

Monday, September 20, 2010

Brainstorming Monday - part 1

1. The biggest IPO ever is due this week - with an obscure project as Petrrobras wants 78 bil new capital for something never done before and an economically extremely risky model once the drilling was a success - which is not a given at all. Never before has been drilled so far out and so deep before and the break even is rather close to 100 Dollar per barrel with the market in the low 70's a very risky enterprise by all means. In a market rising without any real buyers - but we get an idea why it is manipulated up many secondary stock offerings piling up from Petrobras ,GM , Deutsche Bank, UBS, Credit Suisse just to name a few. Actually Santander pulled today an 28 bil offering as it sees market not ready to absorb and at the same time the M&A machines are rolling the dice for banks as well. Hundreds of billions with an average margin of 3-5 % explains why the FED is manipulating stockmarkets higher.

Sentiment has improved quite a bit over the last 3 weeks and is now in the neutral zone as we are heading at least for an interim top this week around Thursday with the Full Moon. More on that in the technical updates.


MONDAY, SEPTEMBER 20, 2010 Blank Image

High bullish readings in the Consensus stock index or in the Market Vane stock index usually are signs of Market tops; low ones, market bottoms.

Last Week2 Weeks Ago.3 Weeks Ago
Consensus Index

Consensus Bullish Sentiment51%50%41%
Source: Consensus Inc., P.O. Box 520526,Independence, Mo.
Historical data available at .
AAII Index



Source: American Association of Individual Investors,
625 N. Michigan Ave., Chicago, Ill. 60611 (312) 280-0170.
Market Vane

Bullish Consensus50%48%43%
Source: Market Vane, P.O. Box 90490,
Pasadena, CA 91109 (626) 395-7436.
FC Market Sentiment

Source: First Coverage 260 Franklin St., Suite 900
Boston, MA 02110-3112 (617) 303-0180.
FC Market Sentiment is a proprietary indicator derived from actionable sell-side trade ideas sent by the sell-side to their buy-side clients over the First Coverage platform. Over 1,000 institutional sales people at more than 250 firms participate on the First Coverage platform and have contributed hundreds of thousands of ideas since inception. Each Idea is associated with a ticker or sector and is tagged bullish or bearish by the creator. This data is aggregated at the sector, industry and market level. The FC Market Sentiment score ranges from 0-100 (0=most bearish, 50=neutral, and 100=most bullish) and represents a completely objective, real-time view into what advice the sell-side is providing to their buy-side clients

Citigroup Panic/Euphoria Model
Market Sentiment

Back to Market Lab Index

Friday, September 17, 2010

NDX weekly update - change of targets

As we broke above the 1940 high confirming the break out of this flag formation with a gap makes an adjustment necessary to the overall strategy. This flag confirms a target of 2100 but gives at least a strong indication of a retest of the highs in the 2050-60 area. The Jupiter Uranus conjunction is a strong pattern being exact on the 18th but as both are slow with jupiter moving faster this effect will be valid for a few more weeks overall. The Full Moon exactly on this pattern on the 23rd this month will push the effect to a turbo boost as it is already. Testing the weekly Bolls at 1960 is almost reached and we have 3 more rising days at least as we are heading for a TDM 13 count being currently at 9. Another strong indicator is the top driver of the NDX Apple which marks a weekly 11 this week heading for the target zone 290-300 - hence we need at least one higher weekly close as we are already above weekly Bollinger we are in exhaustion mode clearly and parallel to NDX at a daily 9 count. We should top out for this wave end of next week ( or early the week after) in the 1980 -2000 zone before dropping back to 1900 testing the gap thereafter. My expectation was for a 2 leg cycle over 2 months til mid term elections but the upside targets have to be raised clearly. An update on the fine tuning is due early next week as soon as we have the 13 count on.

Thursday, September 16, 2010

Brainmstorming Thursday

1. A good read about how phony this whole rising markets con operation is including the steep erosion of Mr Buffett's last bit of dignity - no double dip - we are in a depression with over 20% pğeople out of work and he says no double dip. Being heavily long banks is insane as about 3 mio households are 8 months and more behind in mortgage pays and have not even received a letter from a bank. Lets make some simple math 3 mio times avarage house of 200k is 600 bil. - in real terms banks will have to write off half of that 300 bil. - those numbers are almost 10 fold what banks are processing right now so all the bullshit that prices have risen is just as much phony as the stock market. Still sentiment and other factors support the upside for a few more days before first corrective wave will kick in around Full Moon 23rd.

excerpt 1

US foreclosure activity rose in August from the previous month, and banks and lenders took ownership from homeowners at a record pace, according to a new report released Thursday.

Fuse | Getty Images

Bank repossessions, often the final step in the foreclosure process after a home fails to sell at auction, increased about 2 percent from the month before to 95,364, a record high. At the same the number of properties that received default notices—the first step in the foreclosure process—decreased 1 percent from a month ago and fell 30 percent from a year ago, a sign that lenders are focusing on their backlog of foreclosure inventory before tackling new distressed loans, according to foreclosure listing website RealtyTrac, which released the report.

Overall, foreclosure fillings rose 4.18 percent in August from the previous month, and were down 5.48 percent from a year ago. In all, 338,836 properties were in the foreclosure process. One in 381 U.S. households received a foreclosure notice in August. (Foreclosure notices are defined as a default notice, auction sale notice or bank repossession.)

excerpt 2

The following must read presentation by Wolfe Trahan puts every last piece of the economic puzzle together, confirming there is no other outcome but an economic crunch, affectionately known elsewhere in the MSM as a Double Dip. It gives you all you need to know when confronted with the nattering nabobs of neanderthalism, most of whom tend to reside on CNBC. Feel free to do a side by side comparison of this presentation with that put together by Russell Napier earlier, and decide on your own, which one you believe is far more credible. Yet its greatest value-added is the thorough discrediting of the three chief classes of permawrong prognosticators: sell side analysts, company management and economists.

Key summary highlights:

Be Wary Of Sell-Side Forecasts, Economists' Projections And Company Guidance!

Sell Side: A full 70% of S&P 500 stocks currently carry an average rating of "buy" from sell-side analysts. This is higher than at any
other time in the post Sarbanes-Oxley era.

Company Management: Managements’ guidance tends to lag leading indicators by roughly a quarter or two. This leads to misplaced
optimism and pessimism following a peak or trough in leading economic indicators.

Economists: Most economic models were optimized under a period of very different economic circumstances (i.e., 1980s - 2007):

1) Lower Fed policy rates led to more bank lending, private investment and residential construction activity.

2) Increases in consumer’s net worth led to equal or greater increases in consumption (via leverage).

Today’s reality warrants unconventional GDP models: Banks are not lending, private investment remains weak and consumers are
saving more of their income. QE2 is a given in our minds, but will it work?

An environment of decelerating leading indicators requires a different investment approach and is a game changer for all asset
. The series that forecasted a sharp recovery in leading indicators a year ago are now flagging a continued deceleration in LEIs.

In 2009, hyper-cyclical sectors such as Financials and Technology performed best as investors tried to get the most bang for their
buck. As leading indicators decelerate, investors should continue to seek out more stable, counter-cyclical sectors such as
Staples, Telecom and Utilities.

Courtesy of Mike Mansfield

Wednesday, September 15, 2010

SPX weekly update

SPX stays in the trading range as the NDX is climbing forming an intermarket divergence which should trigger in about a week from here a sharper sell off. The market runs out of steam for now but in Oct we will see the final joker of the rotschild-rockefeller boys than the FED announces the purchase of 1 tril treasury bonds but that will rather bring the dollar to its knee's and will trigger after an initial spike a sell off in bonds. Mr Geithner still wants to sell us some expensive GM stocks. from 1130 we can expect a pullback to 1080 before another upside campaign will start in order to break the 1130 resistance. ı am not sure if they can succeed briefly in order to trap the market as it did to the downside. against all statistical terms Sep and Oct will be rather up months and starting Nov we rather have the start of a sharper sell off. as the phony peace talks will vanish and the real time window for an Israel attack on Iran will be on right after the mid term elections. also will the erosion in economic data show its ugly face as the Obama boys can not keep up the charade of cooked numbers for a long time. The sentiment numbers are all still too bearish/ neutral for a bigger sell off right now which will take a few more weeks to adjust.

Tuesday, September 14, 2010

NDX weekly update

The NDX has reached the target zone yesterday and as we enter day 9 today on a TDM basis as well exhaustion short term can be expected after another test of the 1930 level. Since we traded higher yesterday with a gap that will be crucial the next days as a test of that is mandatory but astrological aspects rather give less chance for a substantial retreat for this week as on the 18th Jupiter and Uranus will be exact conjunct which is a bullish case for tech. At the same time a negative aspect was triggered yesterday - see yesterdays post for details but that should come into effect after the Full Moon on the 22nd. Also the SOX rather promises a bit more upside support short term after being the weak component for weeks. One of the top performers in the NDX - Apple - still needs to hit 290 before turning lower as well. The next days will be tricky - expect wild swings with the second half of the week rather with a downside bias briefly starting later today or tomorrow. 1940 should cap any upside for SEP and we can expect a substantial retreat from that level starting later next week.

Monday, September 13, 2010

Brainstorming Monday - part 1

1. The stars preparing us for some wild swings as Pluto goes stationary today reactivating the malicious T-square but we will have to way a few more days as we are heading for a weird full moon around the 22nd which will exactly land on the Jupiter Uranus conjunction on one hand marking a volatile high but at the same time activate the above mentioned T-square. As the Moon enters the sagitarius factır early this week we kick off with an upside gap breaking above a 4 day resistance for the SPX short term heading for our final target zone 1120-30 where trading longs need to be sold before entering shorts the next days. We should see within the week already a retreat in the second part but start with an upside bias the week after again.
Sentiment has approved quite a bit on the bullish side but overall we are rather neutral yet which should improve towards the Full Moon substantially creating the downside scope. The Obama deception machinery will keep markets up til the midterms but we will see swings on both sides starting this week and getting more volatile next.

excerpt 1

Blank Image
MONDAY, SEPTEMBER 13, 2010Blank Image
High bullish readings in the Consensus stock index or in the Market Vane stock index usually are signs of Market tops; low ones, market bottoms.
Last Week2 Weeks Ago.3 Weeks Ago
Consensus Index
Consensus Bullish Sentiment50%41%42%
Source: Consensus Inc., P.O. Box 520526,Independence, Mo.
Historical data available at (800) 383-1441.
AAII Index
Source: American Association of Individual Investors,
625 N. Michigan Ave., Chicago, Ill. 60611 (312) 280-0170.
Market Vane
Bullish Consensus48%43%42%
Source: Market Vane, P.O. Box 90490,
Pasadena, CA 91109 (626) 395-7436.
FC Market Sentiment
Source: First Coverage 260 Franklin St., Suite 900
Boston, MA 02110-3112 (617) 303-0180.
FC Market Sentiment is a proprietary indicator derived from actionable sell-side trade ideas sent by the sell-side to their buy-side clients over the First Coverage platform. Over 1,000 institutional sales people at more than 250 firms participate on the First Coverage platform and have contributed hundreds of thousands of ideas since inception. Each Idea is associated with a ticker or sector and is tagged bullish or bearish by the creator. This data is aggregated at the sector, industry and market level. The FC Market Sentiment score ranges from 0-100 (0=most bearish, 50=neutral, and 100=most bullish) and represents a completely objective, real-time view into what advice the sell-side is providing to their buy-side clients

Citigroup Panic/Euphoria Model
Market Sentiment
excerpt 2

Short-Term Geocosmics

The next 1-4 weeks could get very wild. The geocosmic climate becomes very intense once again, which usually means the political and economic arenas are in store for some sudden shocks. Nature may also become very explosive, as in earthquakes and hurricanes.

On Sunday, September 12, Mercury will end its retrograde motion. The next day, Pluto will also end its retrograde motion and both will turn direct. That means the principles of Mercury combined with Pluto are highlighted at this time. Mercury rules the field of communications. It has reign over commerce and business transactions, as well as acknowledging the importance of words, especially in agreements. Pluto rules research, investigation, and exposures. It also pertains to debt, taxes, and the urge to change or reform matters of the economy. Sometimes Pluto can be nasty, as when the intent is to cause harm or ruin to others. Thus we may see announcements of new discoveries in science and medicine on the one hand, but also news stories that reveal secret discussions, decisions, or acts that create problems for the subject. In economic matters, plans to change the financial direction of nations, such as the USA, may be announced. We may also hear harmful accusations hurled at one’s opponents. It is campaign season after all. But the tone may be overly harsh and cutting. The purpose of these stories is either to transform or destroy, and one should consider the source of this information, if it can even be known.

It doesn’t change much the next day, as Mars begins its 6-week journey through Scorpio on September 14. Mars co-rules Scorpio, along with—guess who?—Pluto. It’s all about debt again, and the fear of an economic collapse, coincident with loud calls for reform. Heads may fall soon, for Pluto and Scorpio both can represent termination, as in “You are fired.”

The first three days of this new week are also highlighted because the Moon will be in Sagittarius, a placement we refer to as “The Sagittarius Factor.” During this 2-3 day period every month, financial markets are prone to large price swings, especially in precious metals and Treasuries. For that matter, so does the entire time of Mars in Scorpio. I don’t believe there is a planet-sign correlation to precious metals as strong as Mars in certain degrees of Scorpio. But keep in mind this correlation is not 100%, and it doesn’t last through the entirety of the sign.

Longer-Term Thoughts

Get ready for “The Return of the Climax: The Sequel.”

We spent the first three years of the 2008-2015Cardinal Climax falling deeper and deeper into an economic abyss that peaked astrologically with the period of July 21-August 21. We previously identified that time band as the fifth of five stages of ever-tightening orbs between the planets involved in the Cardinal Climax. This was when Venus, Mars, Jupiter, Saturn, Uranus, Pluto and the Moon’sNorth Node were all in cardinal signs, as close to exactness in a hard T-square configuration as they will all ever come to one another. Nothing like this has happened since June-July 1931.

The fourth layer—the one just before July 21-August 21—occurred in late May through early June when Jupiter and Uranus both moved into the cardinal sign of Aries and formed the first of their three conjunctions with one another on June 8. We are back into that fourth layer again as the second passage of the Jupiter-Uranusconjunction unfolds next weekend, September 18. There is a slight difference this time however, as the Jupiter-Uranus conjunction takes place in 28-29 degrees of Pisces, instead of 0 degrees of Aries. Pisces rules compassion, altruism, and the desire to help others who are in crisis, or need help just to survive.

In terms of recent government action, it is noteworthy that when the National Health Care Act finally passed in March 2010, both Jupiter and Uranus were in Pisces. As they return via retrograde motion to the sign of universal health care, there is talk of repealing, or at least going back and reviewing some of the features included in this bill. Will the Republicans be successful in repealing the entire bill? Probably not.

About Me

I am a professional independent trader