THE DOT - if this turns orange or red be alert

Tuesday, November 30, 2010

SPX update

SPX is done with wave B in a zigzag consolidation pattern and about to break the 1175 support which will be followed by a sell off to the 1150 level. We could even reach the 1130 level by testing the 200 day MA within the next 2 weeks but that should mark the low of wave 4 down by mid Dec and be followed by a final rally of wave 5 up with new highs for the SPX into the 1250-70 area. More on that as soon as the lows are in which should be early next week. The crossover of MACD below 0 level confirms the start of the next wave down as it did on prior occasions ( study chart). Little chance for even a flash crash the next days from an astro point of view as Mars squares an next day stationary Uranus we can expect quite some volatility.

brainstorming tuesday

1. It seems the leaks build up sentiment for an attack on Iran as they are put into an obscure angle to say the least - at least they stir up the Iranian authorities and bring some tense pressure on them to provoke a reaction they need to attack or create a fraction within the Iranian leaders to prepare a change of power game.

excerpt

Iran May Have Missiles From North Korea, Cables Posted by WikiLeaks Show

U.S. Secretary Of State Hillary Clinton

U.S. officials denounced the release, coming on the eve of Secretary of State Hillary Clinton ’s departure for a security conference in the Persian Gulf, as jeopardizing U.S. ties with foreign governments and endangering individuals. Photographer: Goh Seng Chong/Bloomberg

Nov. 29 (Bloomberg) -- Richard Falkenrath, a principal at Chertoff Group and a Bloomberg Television contributing editor, talks about the website WikiLeaks.org's release of classified U.S. government documents. Falkenrath speaks with Erik Schatzker on Bloomberg Television's "InsideTrack." (Source: Bloomberg)

Nov. 29 (Bloomberg) -- Iran obtained 19 advanced missiles from North Korea, potentially giving the Islamic nation the capability of attacking Moscow and cities in Western Europe, according to embassy cables posted by WikiLeaks.org and provided to the New York Times. Bloomberg's Peter Cook reports. (Source: Bloomberg)

2.. Sentiment remains quite bullish giving more margin for wave C down which is about to start this week. SPX needs to close below 1175 to confirm and we will have a mandatory test of the 1150 level but rather a test of the 200 day MA around 1130 is likely.

MONDAY, NOVEMBER 29, 2010Blank Image
INVESTOR SENTIMENT READINGS
High bullish readings in the Consensus stock index or in the Market Vane stock index usually are signs of Market tops; low ones, market bottoms.
Last Week2 Weeks Ago.3 Weeks Ago
Consensus Index
Consensus Bullish Sentiment54%64%71%
Source: Consensus Inc., P.O. Box 520526,Independence, Mo.
Historical data available at (800) 383-1441 . editor@consensus-inc.com
AAII Index
Bullish47.4%40.0%57.6%
Bearish24.732.528.5
Neutral27.927.514.0
Source: American Association of Individual Investors,
625 N. Michigan Ave., Chicago, Ill. 60611 (312) 280-0170.
Market Vane
Bullish Consensus53%53%58%
Source: Market Vane, P.O. Box 90490,
Pasadena, CA 91109 (626) 395-7436.
FC Market Sentiment
Indicator55.6%54.4%55.0%
Source: First Coverage 260 Franklin St., Suite 900
Boston, MA 02110-3112 (617) 303-0180 . info@firstcoverage.com
FC Market Sentiment is a proprietary indicator derived from actionable sell-side trade ideas sent by the sell-side to their buy-side clients over the First Coverage platform. Over 1,000 institutional sales people at more than 250 firms participate on the First Coverage platform and have contributed hundreds of thousands of ideas since inception. Each Idea is associated with a ticker or sector and is tagged bullish or bearish by the creator. This data is aggregated at the sector, industry and market level. The FC Market Sentiment score ranges from 0-100 (0=most bearish, 50=neutral, and 100=most bullish) and represents a completely objective, real-time view into what advice the sell-side is providing to their buy-side clients


Citigroup Panic/Euphoria Model
Market Sentiment


Iran obtained 19 advanced missiles from North Korea, potentially giving the Islamic nation the capability of attacking Moscow and cities in Western Europe, according to embassy cables posted by WikiLeaks.org and provided to the New York Times.

U.S. officials denounced the release, coming on the eve of Secretary of State Hillary Clinton’s departure for a security conference in the Persian Gulf, as jeopardizing U.S. ties with foreign governments and endangering individuals. WikiLeaks began posting the cables yesterday.

The 19 North Korean BM-25 missiles, based on a Russian design known as the R-27, might give Iran the “building blocks” for producing long-range missiles, according to a Feb. 24 cable posted on WikiLeaks. The cable didn’t provide specific evidence, according to the Times, which agreed not to publish the document at the Obama administration’s request.

“North Korea and Iran have had a decades-long missile relationship and also most likely a nuclear relationship,” saidBruce Klingner, an analyst at the Heritage Foundation in Washington and former chief of the Central Intelligence Agency’s Korea branch. “The leaking of the classified documents provides a greater sense of confidence” for analysis conducted previously by outside experts and most recently illustrated in photos from a North Korean parade, he said.

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