THE DOT - if this turns orange or red be alert

Thursday, July 31, 2008

ain't that sweet - now they come with the recession

Suddenly we get the long hidden recession numbers. What a pity that all their obvious obscure assumptions turned out to be not worthwhile. Market manipulation by the Bush government is one of the most outrageous factors and one of their biggest accomplishments. They created bubbles in all asset classes with oil mentioned as their biggest accomplishment. A recent report by the pentagon claims that the additional 30k soldiers accomplished returning Iraqi oil production to the highest output in 5 years. One tril. taxpayer dollars and 4,117 soldiers having been invested so far and the 3rd richest oil reserves are secured for US oil companies not for the taxpayer who finances the war against the "evil forces" (although it is not so clear who were the evil ones).

So 4th quarter 07 contracted by 0.2 - well that still does not match reality, since adjusted by real inflation, America is in a recession ever since then. If you take a low inflation number, part of the real inflation might look like growth but is nothing but inflation. Most of the consumer spending rises came not from real higher spending but higher prices for goods and usually would have to be matched by rising salaries. The substantial lower inflation statistics compared to real inflation gave the winning edge for companies and government to underpay, hence the buying power was constantly shrinking. As long as the wealth effect by rising house prices and stocks were creating illusion of more buying power, people seemed not to have cared about it. Now that might change going forward.

Excerpt from Bloomberg

U.S. Recession May Have Begun in Last Quarter of 2007 (Update2)

By Timothy R. Homan

July 31 (Bloomberg) -- The U.S. economy may have tipped into a recession in the last three months of 2007 as consumer spending slowed more than previously estimated and the housing slump worsened, revised government figures showed.

The world's largest economy contracted at a 0.2 percent annual pace in the fourth quarter of last year compared with a previously reported 0.6 percent gain, the Commerce Department said today in Washington. Growth for the period from 2005 through 2007 was also trimmed.

The revisions now reinforce measures such as employment and production that already signaled the economy was shrinking. The National Bureau of Economic Research, the Cambridge, Massachusetts-based arbiter of economic cycles, defines a recession as a ``significant'' decrease in activity over a sustained period of time. The declines would be visible in GDP, payrolls, production, sales and incomes.

``We're in a recession,'' Allen Sinai, chief economist at Decision Economics Inc. in New York, said in a Bloomberg Television interview. ``It's going to widen, it's going to deepen.''

The government also said incomes grew less than previously thought, raising the risk that consumer spending will again stumble after getting a temporary boost from the tax rebates last quarter.

technical update

The Dow chart on the left shows the clear developinp ABC correction pattern. We entered wave C (new moon) up which will bring the DOW up to the 50% 12000 - 61.8% 12250 zone. SPX the reference levels are 1325-1345. Many indicators are very oversold fueling the short-covering momentum for the time being. NDX is a bit different animal but with the same basic momentum - we made the minimum requirement test of 1800 and are finishing a invers Head Shoulder pattern with neckline at 1860. The upside potential is 100 points and a test of the gap/lap zone 1900/35 is due to be closed. This upside move will be brief and around 5th august markets will with a high probability turn dow again and test the lows thereafter.
Oil has as expected finished wave A down and is now in wave B up heading for 132 before dropping in wave C down to 100/110.

Tuesday, July 29, 2008

what happened to the bottom of house prices Mr. Kudlow

To Mr Kudlow who claims real estate had already a bottom - if you want to work as a lobbyist work in D.C. - stop spreading inappropriate information to people on TV

Before you quit your day job have a look at this little report

Excerpt from WSJ

Home-Price Declines Accelerate

By Shara Tibken
Word Count: 308

The S&P/Case-Shiller home-price index, a closely watched gauge of U.S. home prices, show price declines continued to worsen in May, with every region measured showing year-over-year drops for the second straight month.

According to the indices, home prices in 10 major metropolitan areas fell by a record 17% from a year earlier and 1% from April. In 20 major metropolitan areas

Corzine defended Paulson ( from one Goldman ceo to another thats an act within whichever fraternity an obligation I think. But an acting class would be good since his body language did not support his words. Its kind of funny that paulson missed out on the mortgage crisis since the chief economist Mr. Markus from Goldman was the first to warn about it severely - does he not read the research?

MER or Thain its outrages

Thain (CEO of Merrill) plans to compensate Temasek with 2.5 bil - is he out of his freaking mind. Thats the guy who said MER does not need any new capital a few weeks ago over and over again. He gets paid over 200 mil. for this mess. Thats a case of fraught against all other stockholders he needs to compensate them as well - happy new business for lawyers. Why is Temaseks money any better than the money of all the other stockholders. This guy together with his expensive Goldman buddies who cost the firm over 500 mio. for 3 people - that insane anyway should be fired. Any Ape can do better and Stan O'Neal belongs behind bars. This guy blew away over 40 bil. officially (actually its closer to the double amount - basically all the money MER was worth) in a year with taking risks (thats the insane dilligence of the SEC and FED to supervise them) out of any proportion. People get tickets for speeding in cars - this guys speed corporations into bankruptcies - why is there no ticket for those gentlemen. They have cost the world trillions of dollars. Instaed he walked out with 180 mio severance package - this world is completely insane. Its not only MER the same is true for all Wallstreet except Goldman - but not because they were any smarter, by Mr. Thain you see an ex-Golman CEO at work. Goldman has an information advantage over all other firms - their flagship algorithmicly driven hedge fund lsot almost half their money lst year. This whole mortgage related issue is ahuge Enron on a exponential scale, with Rating Agencies mortgage brokers and Investmentbanks plling all the same string or scheme - all Mr Bush had to say about this was that Wallstreet is drunk. I think someone is using his own desease to desribe other people. Imagine that Mr Bush has an MBA from Harvard but thats a complete different topic - nevertheless like his Dad 'read my lıps' - he is famous for his smerking smile while reading bad news to the nation. The most amazing to me is that nobody shouts foul but on the other hand no suprise the majority of all stocks are controlled bu mutual funds who are not interested in their clients money or ethics. They are part of wallstreeet themselves who will not attack the people who feed them- allthough its actually the clients money but their loyalty is with the people who gave them their jobs.

Excerpt from Bloomberg

Merrill to Sell $8.5 Billion of Stock, Unload CDOs (Update2)

By Bradley Keoun and Christine Harper

July 29 (Bloomberg) -- Merrill Lynch & Co., the third- biggest U.S. securities firm, will sell $8.5 billion of stock and liquidate $30.6 billion of bonds at a fifth of their face value to shore up credit ratings imperiled by mortgage losses.

Temasek Holdings Pte., the Singapore-owned fund that became Merrill's biggest investor by acquiring shares in December, will buy $3.4 billion of the new stock, Merrill said yesterday in a statement. The New York-based company is paying Temasek $2.5 billion to offset losses on its earlier investment. Merrill will also book $5.7 billion of writedowns in the third quarter.

2nd part

MER sells 30 bil. of CDO's at 22 cents does the financing and adter 1.7 bil. they participate in the losses again, sells Bloomberg to Bloomberg at discount and finances the deal for Bloomberg - what kind of crook deals are that? At the same time they diluted completely the old stockowners assets - first the destroyed capital, now they make presents and finally they brought in fresh capital with close to no earnings power left - even the worst enemy could have not done any better. Mr. Paulson and Mr. Bernanke who claimed one year ago everything was contained and losses would be around 50 bil. probably only referred to MER?? All this other 'economists' who came up with the mantra this is a selective problem of wallstreet and real-estate speaking of the two backbones of the economic strength in the last 4 years are they just incompetent or bad liars. They keep it up stating that earning after this two sectors are still doing good - mostly thanks to the 'strong dollar' policy of the white house and underpaying the workforce by faked inflation numbers and cooked balance sheet components.

Did you know that most corporations 80 plus % have a fictive profit component which is the corporate retirement funds. It works quite easy you are allowed to assume a figure of 111110% profit for a fictive size of the retirement budget which is mostly not fully paid in even with huge underfunding and add this fictive profits of fictive sums to the earnings. Since decades the earnings were inflated by this numbers - so all this fancy valuation models have a lot of this faked components which make them an unreliable source of evaluation. Finally eve,rybody who claims stocks are cheap especially pulling statistics from the last 10-20 years has no good intentions because thats not a reference period by any means. That is why abby Cohen from Goldman is a 'obscure' lady with her fair valuation claims. The FED model as I explained in a former post is also based on completely false assumptions because without real inflation ,no real bond yields and finally that is what counts.

Monday, July 28, 2008

technical outlook for aug. - rollercoaster

As expected markets are weakening towards the new moon and this time a factor will be the Tech sector but more so by mid August (starting around the 6th). Also the Financials will stay under considerable stress going forward for another 2-3 weeks thereby around new moon 1. Aug. expect a sharp move up for a few days. This market will be whipsawing until most people lose the nerve to trade either direction - in order to make a powerful rally thereafter, with almost no participants. Thats the typical way for the market to set it self up in such a situation - still we need a higher VIX , which needs to go to high 20 or rather 30 again for the real deal. That 30 level should likely show up by 2nd-3rd August week.

Plus we have a lot of manipulation in single stocks going on right now but that will increase towards end Aug. with the 3rd Q. for Broker's ending creating the urge to 'create' results. They will be under big pressure to show good results ( not likely though) and need higher stock prices for another round of financing since even the IMF said not the slightest chance of an end for a dropping housing market, definetly more write offs are due in their mortgage related books. Going forward their earnings potential is on a weak basis. Now with thedeveloping oil correction it will be even tougher to raise maoney ( some sovereign funds will not feel as deep pocketed anymore). As hedgefunds do not make money these days the prop.- desks and trading operations will have a hard time delievering positive results. Broker /Bank stocks will be in big time trouble for the next earnings season.

Thats another time and a different outlook to take care off - for now we can expect the test of the 1760 level for the NDX with a minimum requirement of 1800 for this week.

In a bigger weekly perspective we entered wave 5 down and a retest of the March low at 1670 should be due - could happen by mid August but lets first see how the 1760 test will play out. Going forward, since the SOX sector will soon switch to the positive side after a sharp sell off, we entered the final stage of the wave 5 - which should bottom in the 305-20 area soon.

Finally at some point XBD is still due for a test of 110 respectively making new lows but that can also happen in Q.4. Its hard to say since Mr Paulson has now the license to manipulate the markets ( he does anyway the famous PPT reports to him) by the new bill through Fannie and Freddie. For this week the 137 (61,2%) retracement in the XBD could hold but the counter-wave after an impulse wave can go back to 0 (120) even. The risk is that at some point we even will make new lows but the probability it happens in this quarter is 33% since the inflation effect will help them temporarily. We said earlier that one component of the rally would be falling oil respectively commodities , hence it will look like inflation is under control for a few months (just an illusion) - keeps the bond curve favorable for now. That bond-bubble will burst in 2009 and trigger plenty of bankruptcies within 2-3 years.

Oil has finished wave A down and will be in a corrective upmove for a few days. From the 25 down move it should give back between 25 and 38% - thats 6 to 10 up 128 to 132.

Friday, July 25, 2008

Never heard so many strange ideas at once

Bill Gross from Pimco says one of the wisest guys he knows (I hope its not Greenspan) suggested the government should buy $1 mil. houses and blow them into the air to start all over again.

No clue what could be wise in reducing the supply through such silly ideas - his next idea might be to start a war to stimulate the economy - the wise man's. Usually Mr. Gross stands out for thinking against Wall Street but since he connected with Mr. Greenspan he has a different attitude, it seems.

Cramer says buy houses now???? If I recall correctly he was a buyer of Brokers around the high

Excerpt from CNBC

Cramer says: “We saw quarters from Wells Fargo , from USB . We saw a quarter from JPMorgan. We saw a quarter from Bank of America . And those guys had already put charges in that made it so that when housing does bottom, they will be overreserved. That’s the ticket. That’s what Wachovia did. They anticipated a housing bottom and they’re going to be right.”

If banks were so smart to begin with, why did they lose $500bil. (officialy - in real terms it far more) so far and have at least the same distance to go? Why is it a smart sign, when they do what is necessary to write off what they lost as long as they can deduct it from gains? The only reason to buy now would be if you believed a hyperinflation is right behind the corner, when hard commodities are better than any money respectively stocks or bonds but gold might be an option as well? No other reason to buy anything – rather, it's time to fasten the seat belts and reduce expenses. He did not foresee the crises, so might be not the most qualified to call it off.

Mr. Kudlow from CNBC, who finds every statistic, which proves his evergreen bull song - now it's the rising median house price. Actually, I do not know if there is an uptick in house prices but, as in any wave pattern even in a housing bear market, we might see people catching falling knives. Deterioration of the job market with jobless claims north of 400k is not a signal for a bottom in housing. In 2 years, when America is in depression mode and jobless figures are in double digits, what will the housing market be like? No idea what kind of faked statistics he wants to believe in, but obviously foreclosures are still rising sharply and they will add to the already high rate of close to 12 month supply. His opinions are even worse than the mainstream and his dangerous drumming the bull at the highs should make him a bit modest.

Excerpt from Bloomberg:

U.S. Foreclosures Double as House Prices Decline

technical update - its even trickier - rollercoaster ahead

The week turned out as thought initially, weak we only made perfect 38.2 retracements in SPX and DOW before turning lower. The disturbing part was the NDX, with its daily reversal, but the driving force behind it is the BTK (biotechnology), which tops out today and should enter a correction to the downside starting next week. Get ready for a wild ride in the next weeks with volatile swings, building a temporary bottom. DOW and SPX should have seen the lows, XBD could retest the lows right now (within a week less likely) or some time in August (very likely). These media bull-shitting campaigns are not worth listening to – it's just Paulson propaganda. Bill Gross is closer to the truth but still not close - my call is $2 tril. for mortgage related losses ($45 tril mortgage related derivatives out there). Banks have plenty to lose even Wachovia after their "kitchen sink" media coup.

We will see the truth of the downside magnitude when SPX hits 1225 - a close below indicates more weakness ahead. The driver will be the XBD with a test of 142 area mandatory but further weakness is just a matter of time. The crucial aspect will be the NDX , which should retest 1800 but likely will retest 1760 even. The test of 1760 next week will decide how the story will develop.

Around new moon (solar eclipse) on August 1st, markets should go up again for a few days, since window dressing is part of the action but some negative aspects on August 6th might bring the rollercoaster aspect back before going higher again.

The time frame from August 5th to 18th is the most dangerous for a military conflict and will be a very challenging time somehow also for the markets. That we will look into when it's closer, for now expect more weakness with Monday likely an upside day. Even later today we can turn upside since the Paulson GSE ruling will come on the weekend, but reality will bite since it does not solve the problem its just a onetime painkiller event. The second half of next week should be positive
with a test of 1225 as a likely turning point.

Wednesday, July 23, 2008

update on technical situation

The impressive reversal of the NDX and the overall strength of the market yesterday implies that wave A is not over yet. The decline from mid-May in the DOW and SPX has a 38.2% retracement at 117200 and 1293, which should be reached before a counterwave will occur. Nevertheless, today and tomorrow might be a bit tricky. Plenty nervous shorts are out their waiting for a pullback, which will come at some point a retest the lows, but the timing and price magnitude might be painful - but a little pullback later today is very likely lasting into tomorrow.

Tuesday, July 22, 2008

technical update -the tech weakness

After the short covering rally of last week, which had an impulsive wave character, the expected weakness of this week is rolling. The impact comes from the TECH sector, as we assumed, and is a running theme throughout the earnings season. Nevertheless, weakness in financials can be expected as well, since a pullback after such a rise is mandatory and can be substantial. The 40% rise in the BKX will give back 50% at least – it's honestly hard to say. The impact of the new shortselling rules have some impact but we are looking for a week of rising volatility, close to 30 will be the bias when the NDX drops below the prior low of 1759, which is likely. Basically, the intermarket divergence turned now in favor of financials for the time being. But its not a safe ground, despite the assurance of Paulson the US banking system. It is far from being sound and even the better ones are expensive like JPM. But we are, after all, in a sucker rally not in a substantial turn of the markets. Yesterday, I read an interesting peace of research about the July 17 turns, which were most of the time wiped out weeks later. Wachovia's earnings will determine the bias for today and since we have a new CEO (from Goldman, the former Undersecretary of the Treasury), we can expect a little disappointment in earnings rather - the way Thain from MER did it when he took over to make a steep clean out and put it on the old CEO.

To put it into perspective, these kind of corrections have at least an ABC count but might turn out to be more complex. The current wave was the wave A and we switch into wave B, giving us target of 1225 SPX. The NDX is running on a different count scheme and should test the 1760 at least, but very likely will make new lows heading for 1670/1700.

Friday, July 18, 2008

sucker rally has started?

The full moon in direct angle to Uranus has triggered the short covering rally with financials the leading force. The 12 count in XBD has been taken away for now again due to the short selling rules, Wells Fargo and JPM the latter one just in a fundamental perspective trades at almost 20 times earning (trailing) and going forward it will not make better earnings. Relief rallies tend to exaggerate though and we are not finished yet. We also have the expiration of options manipulations going on, adding to the situation.
The oil turn (top) is in place as expected and will support oil sensitive stocks over the next weeks (airlines, cars etc.) but the financial story is not finished by fundamental means. we have still week 9 turns all over the place after deep extensions below weekly bollinger bands that is a normal reflex. XBD even reached almost (120) the overall taget of 110 deriving from a Headshoulders pattern and with an 11 weekly we know it will happen at some point that we hit 110. The question is first more rally and lower afterwards or short term test of the lowere lows?
The overall picture does not favor an immediate test of the lower lows since we have only a time window of 2 weeks until new moon. The wave counts show we are in final stage wave 4 up of bigger wave 5 down. so we will see wave 5 down of wave 5 until the 1. August and when will rally up to 1340 even 1370 SPX.
Almost all sentiment and technical indicators ask for a relief or sucker rally. Tricky part will be the tech sector as I mentioned earlier and we see by earnings (Goog, MSFT) the negative spin on tech remains for another 2-3 weeks. So far we reached our minimum target at 1780 NDX which should be retested at least if not extended to the downside.
The downside move next week til end of July should be followed by a more severe rally (minimum target 1340 SPX) starting around new moon 1st August. Vix as expected made only a brief trip to 30 level but another attempt should follow within the next 2 weeks, adding to the overall picture.
Keep in mind this is a rally within a bear market - the banks have so much contaminated stuff in their balance sheets which nobody is adressing at all, just to throw in the 450 tril OTC derivatives and neither the FED nor over authorities are pushing them to bring up a clear picture but on the other hand they may have a good reason - they do not want to open the box of pandora. Anyway medium term we have a rendevouz with 750 SPX - thats the best case scenario. I am afraid it will be far lower. Trailing PE at 14 so same earnings with an inflation evaluation (single digit PE) makes it 900, let earnings half and valuation come to extreme like 1930 (5 times)and we are at 300 SPX.

Wednesday, July 16, 2008

oil technical update - the inflation reality is ging to crash bond markets soon

Oil made a top as expected in the 146/8 area and also the time-frame is good for a top around full moon ( one month before full moon lunar eclipse being exactly on Neptun).
The oscilating sharp swings speak of exhaustion behavior and we printed a weekly 13 combo. we came from the 60 area, giving us a 80-6 move up which needs to give half back. The least would be 38,2% correction that gives us a of 35-44 dollar down, which marks our 100/10 target area over the course of 2-3 months.

The most manipulated market in the world are Bonds, with phony inflation numbers, which are way too low. Almost all states with debt have managed to reduce their cost of finance dramatically. Assume inflation at 7% in America (should be pretty accurate), just to take one example and they need to pay a premium or real interest should be above inflation, so let's assume they have to pay 150 bp over the curve. The interest burden would be at 8.50%. Currently, they pay close to 3%, which saves them $500 bil. a year on $10 tril. The pathetic part is that the investors would usually not except that since they also lose money on the Dollar, so America should, by common sense, pay even a premium, since their banks are technically bankrupt. This inflation fraud also helps the corporate world, which borrows money along the Treasury curve - they even benefit double, as all wage negotiations have been done based on too low inflation. Hence, over the years they effectively have lowered the (expenses) salaries. Altogether, this is a trillion dollar fraud scheme. Mr. Greenspan is one of the architects and Mr. Clinton has played his part in this rip off of the century.

I remember for the entrance of the EU currency, one criteria - inflation - had to be below a given watermark. Overnight, Italian inflation dropped into the target zone (a miracle). The Turkish economy secretary (Simsek) said one true thing this week, that we have negative interest rates all over the world. This is true for a few yeas now. The problem is that the Bondfund mangers play a vital role in this. Although they should know better, they invest along these phony statistics. Pimco recently said that those inflation numbers are not describing the real situation and even some senators have said the same. Central banks and foreign investors, like the Chinese and Arab sovereigns, have no other choice but to make a bad investment to finance the shopping of USA.

I remember for the entrance of the EU currency, one criteria - inflation - had to be below a given watermark. Overnight Italien inflation dropped into the target zone (a miracle?). The introduction of the Euro was anyway a weird thing like the prices you had to pay were the same (Mark to EURO is roughly 2:1) only the salary halfed to see it from a German perspective. since that Euro inflation is evry high against all the statistical claims, in germany within 10 years prices doubled for may things except the usual suspects (TV,computers but that is only true in comparrison to the old tech standard - I bought an IBM notebook top notch at that point of time for 5000DM roughly 2500Euro the best 15 inch screen apple costs the same at least and flatsreen TVs cost even more).

The Turkish economy secretary(Simsek) said one true thing this week, that we have negative interest rates all over the world. This is true for a few yeas now. The problem is that the Bondfund-mangers play a vital role in this. Allthough they should know better, they invest along this phony statistics. Pimco recently said that those inflation numbers are not describing the real situation and even some senators did the same. Central banks and foreign investors like Chinese and Arab sovereigns have no over choice but to make a bad investment to finance the shopping of USA.

At some point soon the Bond markets have to wake up to reality. Basically, on the paper it might look as one makes money with Bonds but actually in real terms, you lose money every year. The FED was very clever in getting the focus on so called core-inflation. That is nonsense by any means and has nothing to do with reality.

Finally only one thing is left to say Bonds are radically overvalued, a huge bubble which will burst soon. States reduced their interest payments on hehalf of investors over at least one decade and this bubble real estate market (USA, England ,Spain, Ireland etc.) gave people the illusion of having some wealth. Now reality bits hard and questions will be asked. The Bush administration has done one of the biggest wealth distributions with an undemocratic approach. The flow was to the few privelidged ones - away from the many hard working ones. The stars say now is time for adjustment.

Goldman - the evil force?

In an article in the WSJ Schwartz (Bear Staerns) and Fuld (Lehman) are blaming Blankfein (Goldman) for manıpulationg their stockprices down. we know from LTCM that Goldman was the first to around the wreck of the LTCM hedge fund with the excuse of saving it taking out the records of their trading positions and taking acordingly opposite positions (very likely) to take advantage. The ethics are not to high than it comes to making money at Goldman. It was strange that they called a summer rally late May with emphases on financials to turn around a few weeks later and put financials on sell recomandation. The fundamentals were still the same and more amazingly since Thain (former Goldman Co-CEO) MER new CEO took over Merrill made parallel calls coping the Goldman call (summer rally - financials). That looks pretty much like an arranged setup. Even The SEC seems to be aware of that and is investigating market manipulation for Bear stearns and Lehman by Goldman , Merrill and Deutsche Bank.

Excerpt from WSJ

Goldman Is Queried
About Bear's Fall
Manipulation Talk
Worried Schwartz;
Lehman Also Calls
July 16, 2008; Page C1

Goldman Sachs Group Inc. is the envy of Wall Street, navigating the credit crisis relatively deftly as many of its peers have been battered.

Now, the big securities firm has come under suspicion, at least from the chiefs of two rivals who have questioned in recent months whether Goldman, even indirectly, might have put pressure on their firms' stocks.

Alan Schwartz, who headed Bear Stearns Cos. when it collapsed in March, has pointedly asked Goldman Chief Executive Officer Lloyd Blankfein whether there was any truth to talk that in the days preceding Bear Stearns's fall, traders in Goldman's London office manipulated the struggling firm's stock, according to a person with knowledge of the conversation.

Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. CEO Richard Fuld Jr., whose firm's shares also have been battered, also has contacted Mr. Blankfein. "You're not going to like this conversation," Mr. Fuld told Mr. Blankfein, according to people familiar with their talk, but he was hearing "a lot of noise" about Goldman traders who allegedly spread negative rumors about Lehman. In recent months, Mr. Fuld has contacted traders he felt may have been bad-mouthing his stock, according to someone familiar with the matter. Spreading rumors one knows to be false with the intention of manipulating a public company's price is illegal.

Excerpt from Bloomberg

SEC Subpoenas Wall Street in Expanding Hunt for `Manipulators'

By David Scheer

July 16 (Bloomberg) -- The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission subpoenaed Wall Street's biggest firms and hedge-fund advisers in a widening effort to crack down on suspected manipulation of Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. and Bear Stearns Cos. shares, three people familiar with the situation said.

The SEC's enforcement unit demanded information from banks including Deutsche Bank AG, Goldman Sachs Group Inc. and Merrill Lynch & Co., according to two of the people, who declined to be identified because the inquiries aren't public. The Washington- based regulator is seeking trading records and e-mails, one of them said.

Tuesday, July 15, 2008

technical update - Vix at 30 - load your guns - be patient

The VIX reached intraday the 30 but we are not finished yet. The day performed the volatility (down up down) which is an early indication of an low. One factor has definetely kicked in OIL topped out. The XBD is ın week 12 combo thats the other factor we were looking for. NDX reached 1780 and Dow 10800. SPX has a liitle bit space since 1175 is the 50% retracement level. Basically the target for XBD was reached and BKX fully but we still need a bit capitulation and a Friday with expiration might just do the trick. We need a bit more volatility and testing lower ground 1-3 % intraday over the next days. Vix intraday above 31 even next week (early). We already have the pathetic defense with SEC trying to stop or at least make it tougher to short GSE's and Brokers. Not to forget that Bush is optimistic on the economy - that should help to get a low anyway.

new dimension in the manipulation - LEH wants to go private

The reason why Lehman wants to give out an unusual half-year bonus in the form of stocks suddenly makes sense, in an obscure plan to take Lehman private. That is something the SEC and FED should have a close eye on. In order to make it a lucrative deal, Fuld's interest is to dump the stocks, so that he can make a cheap offer to take over the entire company. He is trying to turn a bad situation into a windfall for himself, since he is the biggest stockowner, together with the other employees. That is a dangerous and inappropriate approach for the regular stockowners, since we have a conflict of interest.

Excerpt from CNBC
Lehman Brothers Chief Executive Richard Fuld is considering ways to take the Wall Street investment bank private, the New York Post reported on Tuesday.

Monday, July 14, 2008

Barron's quality droping sharply since takeover through Murdoch

The new cover story of Barron's is the biggest nonsense they have published but the trend is still getting worse.

Here an excerpt from recent cover

Bottom's Up: This Real-Estate Rout May Be Short-Lived


This real-estate rout has been more painful than prior ones, but it may be shorter-lived. Indeed, there are early signs of recovery.

A FEW YEARS AGO, AN ACQUAINTANCE SENT Wellesley College economist Karl "Chip" Case a T-shirt depicting a cartoon of a smiley-face house surrounded by soap bubbles, called "Mr. Housing Bubble." But it was the words captured in a comic-book cloud on the shirt that gave this otherwise goofy image its bite: "If I pop, you're screwed!"

The dark humor hardly was lost on Case, co-creator along with Yale economist Robert Shiller of the now-canonical S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Indices. In pairing recent sale prices of U.S. homes with the prices those same homes fetched previously, the index is substantiating what every sentient American knows: The U.S. housing market is in a deep funk, probably the worst in 50 years, according to Harvard's respected Joint Center for Housing Studies.


Home prices are down nearly 18% from the market's peak, according to Case-Shiller, and inventories of unsold homes are at near-record levels. Foreclosures are mushrooming on "subprime" properties, or homes whose purchase was financed with subprime debt. Blowback from the crisis has left mortgage-finance giants Fannie Mae (ticker: FNM) and Freddie Mac (FRE) financially strapped, while many other lenders lack the stomach -- or money -- to offer new mortgages. Noted market experts such as Pimco bond-fund manager Bill Gross and economist Mark Zandi of Moody's predict the meltdown in housing will continue for many months, with home prices declining by 10% or more from today's depressed levels.

Yet, such pessimism appears overdone, based on much recent data. Sales of existing homes are showing tentative signs of increasing, while the plunge in prices likely is nearing an end. Total inventories fell in May to 4.49 million existing homes for sale, or a 10.8-month supply at the current sales pace, down from an 11.2-month supply in April, according to the National Association of Realtors, in just one statistic emblematic of the nascent trend.

The point is the foreclosure rate is exploding but we have a bottleneck in the process, so the houses in the foreclosure process lagging by a year roughly are not on the market yet and unemployment will get worse over time. So there is no quick end to this - just the opposite, with Bond markets due to drop or even crash over time, it will get worse. This is common sense, I thought, but these days it's not the common sense people are looking for. About one year ago, a person saying anything negative about the market would be aggressively attacked. Where are the 'goldilocks', who now lose their jobs because they did not want to see the inevitable? Bankers blew away in one year the profits made in decades. That is a scary fact but politicians who pushed for deregulation (more leverage) and the authorities supervising the banks have done big harm. As Jim Rogers said correctly today, they should sit in jail with some Wall Street CEOs for a terrorist attack on the financial system. During September 11, unfortunately a few thousand people died, but the consequences now will have a severe consequence for hundreds of millions in America and elsewhere. Half a trillion of good money has been thrown into bad investments for Wall Street, which took out the biggest bonus ever undeserved. It's going to get worse to a degree, which might have consequences beyond financial matters. The depression of the 1930's was the trigger point for WW2, since people in great distress might reach out for wrong remedies once again.

Abby Cohen from Goldman again said strange things today - even troubling things - like do not listen to the negative stuff people are saying during the last weeks and months. Funnily enough, Goldman's economist was one of the first to call for a big housing slump and is it not obvious even to her that we are in a huge mess with no end in sight. She said this is not comparable to the 1970's, with inflation of 15% in those days. Well, Ms. Cohen, using the same calculation method, we would already have inflation around 8% right now and, as you might figure out, the trend is rising and soon core inflation kicks in with Main Street asking for raises. One should put the lady on $30k a year and let her make a living on that. Actually, her calls the last years do not really entitle her for any higher pay anyway.

weekly technical -get ready to cover - we are at 98%

Let me start with an excerpt from Wallstreetcourier

(July 13th) The Dow ended the week down 188 points 11101, after falling as low as 10978 Friday. The S&P 500 lost 23 points to 1239, its lowest finish since July 18, 2006. The Nasdaq gave up six points to 2239. The market is heavily oversold and all the bullish indicators from last week are still in force and have even improved. For instance, our Global Futures Sentiment Index fell to a new historical low while public short sales (dumb money) went through the roof. The total number of short sales compared to NYSE volume is also at unprecedented levels (Charts of Interest). An extremely bullish message comes from our Smart Money Flow Index, especially if we look at the historical chart. Our Global Futures Top Indicator is as well clearly in bullish territory, and it is also bullish that there is now concern among Wall Street pundits that the Dow won't bottom until it hits 10000, and the S&P may drop under 1200 and could conceivably hit 1150. But we would like to remind you that the major indexes have crashed through support level after support level since May, and this must have wiped out a lot of small fry who had their stops around these levels. The Dow is now 1601 points below its 200-day moving average and more than 85% of S&P 500 stocks are below their 50-day averages. Such readings have been extremely bullish in the past and should not be ignored. It is also noteworthy that they showed a bear in last week's Internet editon of Barron's. Usually, when the people there find out that we are in a bear market the worst is already over. We are aware of the fact that we expected a bottom around 12000 because of heavy purchases by NYSE specialists around this level. But the markets always overshoot and the more they overshoot to the downside the better they perform afterwards.

Well, those are some indicators adding to the situation and as VIX reached intraday 29, we got close and the GSE panic is another component. Though I am not sure if Paulson is either (a) not smart enough to take care of his wording since he triggered the Friday selling or (b) he does that deliberately, important is the effect. The only thing disturbing is to many smart guys out there, including myself, calling in a low soon - but nevertheless we are in a temporary capitulation. The big one is in time and price far away and we will see a sucker rally. The XBD is not finished yet and DOW, NDX need to lose another 1-2 % in the next few days, with MER coming on Thursday more downside is likely to 130 XBD and the VIX need to get closer to 30.

This week is option expiration and full moon, which has a exact angle to Uranus. This means volatility with a negative bias, since it will be in Capricorn, which is unpleasant. But with a Jupiter close by, it might hint to a climax and final sell out. The Mars - Saturn conjunction comes to an end, since Mars moves away and will be in a positive angle to Jupiter in 2 weeks - hinting to a sharp short-covering rally around the new moon. The special situation we have around this new Moon is that it will be a total solar eclipse in LEO, which is also the speculation sign - not a sound investment. Around the expiration, we will get our temporary low for a few weeks, since one big astrological event is coming up on the 4th of November, the exact opposition of Uranus and Saturn (one of 3 within 2 years), which brings along big trouble for the world and markets. Astonishingly, it's almost exactly aligned with the US elections, which carries the potential of big trouble around these elections. The closer these planets move though, the more difficult it will be to keep markets in a positive spin. The total lunar eclipse on August 16th (full moon) will be on Neptune, which carries some trouble potential and will impact oil big time, since its almost at an exact conjunction. Basically, it suggests a high, which should be severe and last for a few months. The only problem is that astrology gives a event bias but not exact dates. We are heading for a severe top in oil, which will last for months. The price target of 146/8 has been reached but it may be that they print the 150 levels still. The arguments about oil are simply pathetic, since supply and demand has NOT CHANGED WITHIN THE LAST 12 months, but the price has more than doubled. This bubble will also burst but only partly (100/10), since one new factor drives all prices. That is INFLATION. To save the financial system from collapsing, the central banks are pumping liquidity in the markets on an already high money supply. We enter hyperinflation mode, which will drive all kind of prices higher and, at some point, trigger a crash in the Bond markets, which will be the second big wave down for the banks and trigger bankruptcy.

Thursday, July 10, 2008

game of lying - the goldman gang expands

U.S. Weighs Takeover of Two Mortgage Giants
Jonathan Ernst/Reuters
Henry Paulson, left, and Ben Bernanke at a House hearing.

Under the plan, shares of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac would be worth little or nothing, and any losses on mortgages they own or guarantee would be paid by taxpayers.

Sometimes it makes me sick and tired to see Bernanke and Paulson , especially when they sit in house hearings and have the right to lie in public or just remain pathetic snake-oil salespeople they are. Paulson standard answer he believes in the markets and a strong Dollar - why when is the FED having a negative interest rate setup if markets can handle themselves and without the special lending facility of the FED at least 3-4 Brokers more were already bust.
First of all lets see why he sits on his chair - he has two strong motives:

1. Due to a conflict of interest a secretary of the treasury has to sell his stockholdings - to reduce the harm to him he has not to pay any taxes on the sale of his Goldman shares - well that made him between 100-200 mil. profit in unpaid taxes.

2. He has the position of the best informed insider one can imagine since the famous PPT (Plunge Protection team) reports to him as one example
Lets see what he has achived serving his country:

- Houseprices are crashing
- Stockprices are crashing
- Dollar is crashing
- GSE are (almost) bankrupt
- America is heading for depression
etc. etc.

A comittee member was quite frank to the point by saying nobody believes inflation is at 4% and that there is no recession. Bernanke and Paulson were just stumbling around and no one should give them credit in there - these guys have done nothing they could be proud off. Rather the opposite claiming one year ago everthing is contained shows how poor their judgement was. In a single event failure a politician can pretend it never happened (which is not how it should be anyway) but a dynamic expanding problem asks for a different approach - problems do not go away by ignoring them. Well Paulson will be fired in six months but more important is that Bernanke and Geithner need to be replaced as well. Lets see how wise Obama will be - these are the most crucial positions for his presidency plus the Energy secretary and the vacant 3 FED govorners. Its a unlucky coincidence for America that Obama is unexperienced and already contaminated with a Clinton dependency and other people to make shrewd decisions. His economic advisor comes from a rather republican and mainstream mindset and has no experience - a protege of Rubin (Goldman).

McCain has no clue about economics and his economic suggestions do not carry the power to tun around this mess , since he is from the wrong party to begin with - they are responsible for most of this mess. That is the way history took its path for other superpowers on their way down as well. That is something which crossed my mind that they let win Obama since nobody can stop the mess in any 4 year term - so very likely the first black president will mark a huge downturn which was not his resposibility. Bush is cooking the numbers so he can walk out with a statistical positive score in economical terms. Midterm elections the Republicans can takeover the houses with a frustrated public and the Presidency in 4 years is probably their calculation.

Goldman has a new member in the game undersecretary Steel becomes CEO of Wachovia.
They are now in control of the FED (head of capital markets at FED former Goldman), Citigroup (Rubin) , Merill (Thain and two other guys) and now Wachovia. When those guys meet in the country club they or in an obscure place (where Soprano's would gather) they have the power to make markets go their way - just kidding. There cannot be a conspiracy going on, can it??

Finally as I mentioned earlier Fuld the CEO from Lehman is running out of time - actually no time left. As Cramer made a good suggestion yesterday Fuld should buy with his own money 1 mio. shares or a few mo. shares rather to show his faith in his company. Otherwise he will soon be forced to stepdown - probably senator Corzine (ex Goldman CEO ) can take over his position.

Wednesday, July 9, 2008

Technical update - next week we get the interim low??

As expected in our time frame (low in July 2/3 week), we should get now the July low by next week. Only one thing is missing, a VIX at or above 30. However, as I get to read more and more calls for that, I tend to think we might turn close to 30. The Investor Intelligence numbers are at extreme readings of 27.4 bulls and 47.3 bears this week, rydex was at .61 - not to mention that all of the indicators showing oversold readings - but not in an absolute context. We have, by no means, reached the levels of October 2002 or March 2003, this is just the end of the current wave.

There is plenty more downside ahead in the next 18-24 months. Oil has made the expected top at 146/8 area and is now heading for 100/10 area.

DOW made a combo 13 daily and a week 9 (next week), which is the basic count for a countertrend rally.

Yet the major driver XBD is still in week 11 and we need another lower week, next week to get the capitulation at 12 respectively 13 count the week after. Also, some price targets are not entirely reached the NDX should dip to 1780 and the DOWs to 10800 (10700 is 50% retracement). The big support for the SPX is around 1225 (1175 is a sellout target and 50%) and VIX should come close to 30 at least a 28-9 reading next week. A capitulation in Tech is very likely since that was the long bet most recommended and a test of 1700 is even possible.

Putting it into proportion, a drop of another 2% (minimum)-5 % in some indices is required for the capitulation and the VIX to reach 28 at least. Next week's full moon is on the day of the MER earnings announcement with some capital raising initiatives and Citi could be ugly as well.


Monday, July 7, 2008

The low is getting very close - Bear cover on Barrons

For a substantial low ( valid for weeks or months ) some factors are required. One of them is the official coverage of a bear cover like we have on the recent Barron's cover. The other component is the declaration of death for an icon - in these case the GM bankruptcy call of MER has done that. We need some panic - not reached entirely - due to a still reluctant VIX at 27 (but getting closer). Dow made a combo 13 today in a week 8 which is pretty good for a low. The NDX has almost reached the target area of 1780/1800 - we will within the next 2 weeks. Oil has reached target area 146/8 and is topping out. many technical indicators reached the oversold level and sentiment is bearish. The XBD has reached target area 135/40.

But yet it's still too early with the capitulation, which has not reached peak level. We need the smile of the talking heads to go away because they need to be scared to loose their jobs too - but that we might see at the big bottom which is due in 2 years.
[Cover chart]

Rydex made it down to .61 which is a clear low level, but by itself is not a timing indicator. We have reached 90-5% of the low factors but even my gut says with the VIX its still to early This is confirmed by another indicator XBD is counting a weekly 11 combo. We need another week down - since this is one of the leading downside sectors and Merrill and Citi might mark the low days finally next week.

Thursday, July 3, 2008

astro insight into turkey - technical on EURTRY

On the day when Mars was on the Turkish PM's Jupiter/Pluto conjunction (which is by itself a powerful combination, but unfortunately, it is in a square with Saturn), he authorized an unseen move to arrest two of the former top generals for conspiracy together with dozens of other high ranking secularists. Mars gives one the braveness to act out but it's not always the wisest thing to do. It's getting very interesting since the combination of the Solar and Lunar eclipses on the 1st and 15th of August - with the later one being exactly on the Saturn/Pluto square of the PM's birth chart - is the harbinger that he will fall from power, since at the same time Saturn will be opposite his sun.

Buy any dip in EURTRY (better trade it through Euro which will also rise against Dollar) it's heading for 2.12, the negative carry for that trade on a 3-month basis is 1.1% per month. It's bloody expensive to short the Lira if you don't have good timing, but we broke out of a inverse head and shoulder formation and the target is 2.07, but in an overall price pattern the target is far higher and the minimum should be the last high at 2.12. In a wave angle, the last wave came from 1.70 and reached 2.13 then made an exact 61.8% retracement down to 1.86 and could make the same amplitude up which would give us a target of 43 points on 1.86 which is 2.29.

close to the short (medium) bottom - technical update

The indicators a bottom needs are accumulating:

· Leh made a low around our 20 target;

· Bulls at 31.9 Bears at 44.7;

· Price targets have been reached almost NDX 1780/1800, SPX made a new low, DOW 10800;

· Dow has a 12 TDM combo count in a week 7;

to name a few, VIX is still too low for a real bottom. I read a nice piece of research why Vix is low, but the this time everything is different excuse does not work at all. I am once again reading the must-read book "Reminiscence of a Stockoperator", which was written over 100 years ago, and I can assure you the essentials do not change and it always gives me the creeps to read those kind of explanations. For a real bottom, 30 VIX is mandatory and, as we know, 50 marks the big ones. We made it to 26 yesterday with markets down 20% - but the clear message is that there is more yet to come. But that will unfold in waves, today is the last trading day of this week and a new moon. However, this week might finish in fear but a rebound for a few days is very likely and the driving force might be the BKX, which has its exhaustion 13 and is due for a technical rebound. The XBD is far from over and will be the source of another wave down later this month with the SOX. The next week, for the most part, should have an upside bias but around the 10th another selling wave should occur. Most importantly, watch the VIX for clearance.
The indicators a bottom needs are accumulating:

Oil is close to its high at 146/8 but the bad news is the Dollar is poised to drop further short term and the Euro should climb above 1,60. I have no idea why Bernanke is still smiling because he does a miserable job - this low interest rates only helps Wallstreet but not Mainstreet and not the US economy or world economy. SEC and FED have failed completely and allowed banks to make hazardous bets and the regular people have to pay the bill while the guys responsible have walked away with 10s of millions of bonus checks. Wallstreet payed out into the face of the biggest disaster since 1929 the highest bones ever but the owners of this companies have lost over 50% of their stockvalue. Bank robbery needs a new definition I assume.

Wednesday, July 2, 2008

Turkey technical special

The chart of the quarterly XU100 tells the whole story just by the price action. My first target of 32000 is achieved and around 31000 we might see a bounce which might bring us over 40000, whereby a 61,8% retracement is10500 points up which I barely could argue in a fundamental context but markets are short term (1day - 1 year) out of logical valuations and with the crazy greed factor it can even be extended - the fear factor gets priced faster. Anyway thats a big rally it seems from a new investors point of view although its a scenario which will take place in a time frame of 2 quarters before the overall downtrend resumes and makes the 20000 as a mandatory target but a generous 10000 ( which is 8000-12000) is likely within6-8 quarters. keep in mind that in that context all exchanges will have lost more than half of their value more likely 70-90%. This picture you will find in almost all stock markets. Q3 and 4 will be those up quarters very likely (90%) only one bad news missing is that of the closure of the ruling party AKP - which will in practical terms if one can catch the roughly 31000 area be a good entry level even a 38.2% retracement may make you 7000 points. This is for trader only its not an investment and for those who are still in will get a chance to exit out on higher levels.

Tuesday, July 1, 2008

Iran attack imminent?? second version - trouble ahead

Two news articles popped up about an imminent attack, one in a German news magazine "Der Spiegel",1518,562968,00.html

and one in an excerpt from Bloomberg:

By Thomas Penny

July 1 (Bloomberg) -- Israel is increasingly likely to

attack Iran's nuclear facilities this year, ABC News reported,

citing an unidentified Pentagon official.

The strike could be triggered by the production of enough

enriched uranium at Iran's Natanz nuclear facility to make a

weapon, ABC cited the official as saying. The second possible

trigger for an attack would be the delivery of a Russian SA-20

air defense system, the installation of which would make an

Israeli attack more difficult, the official told ABC.

Pentagon officials say a strike on Natanz would only

temporarily damage Iran's nuclear program and could spark a wave

of attacks on U.S. interests, ABC said. The officials said an

Israeli air force exercise last month was carried out to prepare

for an attack, the network reported.

Admiral Mike Mullen, chairman of the U.S. Joint Chiefs of

Staff, was in Israel last weekend for meetings with Israeli

military leaders, ABC said.

Israeli Defense Ministry spokesman Shlomo Dror, in a

telephone interview from Tel Aviv, declined to comment today on ABC.

The only way to address the probability is, for me, by means of astrology, since Israel has its birthday and it is likely that a surprising thing will happen. Israel has a current stationary Uranus in exact square to its birth Uranus as one component. The second is that Israel has an exact triangle of Mars/Jupiter, which makes them brave soldiers and Pluto is activating this energy being on its retrograde move back on Jupiter, which is a power combination and might give Israel the will power to strike out. Neptune is square to the Sun of Israel, which has two implications: they could have illusions about their own power or; they pretend to be a power, which they are not. Ahmadinejad's chart does not show imminent risk for him. He has a self-destructive force within him, which might make him a dangerous enemy. The most dangerous point of time is right now, with Mars on his Pluto activating his Pluto Saturn square and Saturn being in a Saturn square but descending and moving away. During the last few months he has definitely had a very stressful time but survived it. Within a few days, the risk is gone for him on a brief analysis (I've just checked out his transits). All said, it looks more like trouble within Israel right now and such a strike, if done, should be done secretively and not announced. Or else they want to warn the world about the collateral damage, so others will have time to prepare. In that context, the imminent visit of Obama may be crucial since Israel doubts they will have the same support during his presidency. That might be the reason why Israel is on his agenda. In case that Obama can asure them his support, such an attack might be delayed - since McCain is anyway a "no doubt candidate" for military support with his history and legacy.

After having checked out the chart for Iran, the picture becomes more clear and dangerous. First of all, the Sun is in Aries, which is aggressive but the fact that the sun is opposite Pluto makes it a trouble maker and a dangerous one at that. The stationary Uranus is 2 degrees away from their Mars, so they can get attacked or attack themselves suddenly und unexpectedly. Iran has a so-called Saturn-return for a few months (Saturn comes back to its place of birth), which is always one of those life-changing events. From a timing point of view, an attack might happen in 6-8 weeks, when the Mars activates their Sun-Pluto opposition.

Another important factor will be the upcoming Total solar eclipse on August 1st, which is almost exactly (2 degree tolerance) on Israel's Pluto and the following Lunar eclipse on Israel's Mars. Both imply forceful military action since both are in Leo.

titanic heads for the iceberg

About two years ago, a friend and I were discussing the scenarios, which are happening right now, whereby this is just the warming up period. As history repeats itself, we will see a huge crash in the coming years that will wipe out most of the banks and institutional money. The magnitude will be pretty much that of the Nikkei from 37000 to 8000 or 1929. Only this time, due to globalization, the effect will be more severe in its economic consequences. The disaster will be derived from the $45 to $340 tril. derivative market. You might argue that every loosing trade has a winner on the other end, but they might turn out to be loosing as well, since their counterpart risk will reach a point of no return, so they never will be able to gather their winnings.

Just let that scenario, which seemed to be unthinkable develop its consequences - total collapse - no central bank would have any control or chance to stop this. Citibank is close to such a situation. The toxic part of their balance sheet could trigger that event or any exogenic shock to the system like an attack on Iran.

Let's put that into the perspective of the new world order, which is not only part of conspiracy theories, but also the real longings of some power groups on this planet. One of which are the Bilderberger, who are in the end just a deliberate disinformation trick but with a lot of truth in it. The New World Order, whose symbols are hidden in the US Dollar bills (what the heck has a pyramid to do with America?) Why does the Old Testament say theirs is a chosen group of people (the Jewish) who are above the others? Why is Obama, on his first visit, dropping by at Israel? Most central banks were founded and controlled by the Rothschild's and very likely still are. What really happened on 9/11 (I doubt this mastermind Arab theory)? 9/11 was the best excuse to switch off the last democratic barriers in order to control the people again under the guise of their own security. Watch movies like "Vendetta", "Conspiracy Theory", "Matrix" or even "Star Wars" and you find a lot of possibilities of what is going on. The interesting thing is we get a lot of hints from Hollywood these days in shows like "24" or "Prison Break" - the dark force tries to take over and they had quite some progress (pretty good preparation so far). One part of the New World Order is to destroy the old one - a financial collapse is a mandatory step. The second is to create the utmost distrust of people in the democratic process (a well done goal, which we have almost reached) and finally offer the remedy. Hitler tried that but from a very narrow angle and did not succeed, but in the end he was only a puppet played by stronger forces (he had strong support from US sources, since the French had, at the end of WWI, more gold than the US). But that's history. Let's concentrate on the present time. The positive sticker of the New World Order is to create a central control of money flows. Have you recognized that suddenly the famous Swiss banking principle is systematically destroyed? Suddenly secret services in Europe have access to the list of all the accounts and names of BIL and UBS. That's a strange "coincidence" and the idea is to create a global taxation system controlled by a global money authority. In the end, that is all you need. Which puppet gets to be President in which country is a random event comparatively. Whatever party they come from, they all seem to work for the same 'boss' - no one stands out with his attitude. People cheered up to the first female German Chancellor (Angela Merkel), she is a total non-event. A monkey could have achieved the same things by pushing on a random basis on black and white keys. They put up weak kings demoracy leaders) to undermine the braveness of a democracy by selling its people with the same recipe they use to sell soap. The evil thing is that they can do so because people are lazy and comfortable, just looking for their own way to benefit from the situation. That makes people easy to manipulate with their greed and fear. The media is under the control of the 'dark forces' and in these TV series like "24" and "Prison Break", they get a benchmark moral education (brain washing) which has lowered moral barriers over the decades close to zero. At the same time, we are experiencing a boom in superhero movies. The world is longing for a superhero who can save the world from the evil forces. Everybody needs to pull out his superhero within when it might work out

Coming back to the ongoing events, the financial system is broke and held alive by the central banks to buy time. The crash is inevitable, only the timing might differ a bit. Right now, we are in a silent crash. Imagine the best performing is still America with -20%, although, in strong currency terms, that's even worse but the media comments that it is a mediocre pull back and the Bush administration is in deep denial. They are so freaking unbelievably persistent in repeating the same lies and false statistics. We have negative interest rates in all major economic areas in the world (US, Europe, Japan and China), even with the fake inflation numbers. This, by all means, is major wealth destruction. There seems to be no place to hide other than in hard commodities (gold, diamonds, etc.). It's pretty frustrating to think it through and that you cannot rely on this brainwashed salesforce of brokers or insurance salespeople. They are after your money, not working for you. It depends very much on your personal situation and in hard times you've got to think and act for yourself not on institutions. Nevertheless, hard decisions are mandatory since a big iceberg looms ahead and no superheroes in sight other than the one we see sometimes in a mirror.

About Me

I am a professional independent trader