THE DOT - if this turns orange or red be alert

Sunday, October 1, 2023


 Bond crash in a 5 wave pattern about to find  its bottom around 110, ideally would briefly go below Boll and reverse in Oct with a bullish divergence pattern creating an ABC correction in the range 105-130. While the FED will pause the curve inversion will normalize in 2024. Since the long term uptrend is broken expect more downside in the 2nd half of 24 as we had for the elections turbulences in financial markets are to be expected starting Q2 24 again. In Q4 of this year bank failures are likely which might lead to some dovish FED adjustments but no rate cuts yet.


 Gold as I had written back in May, Bullion would try to paint a triple top pattern which they did so far despite China premium of 5%. Strategically they did in right before the 'Golden Week' holiday seems ironic but  retail China buys the most Gold in the days prior which might explain why China did not intervene as people got their Gold relatively cheaper. Parallel Silver was also turned down as China accumulates Silver by trashing it as long as moronic Bullion banks play along knowing that game is soon over as we head for buying season Q4/Q1 which naturally is a strong time for PMs. Golden week Shanghai  is closed but Hong Kong except Monday is open hence they can take advantage of lower prices. RSI and other indicators are already extreme as we are below daily and weekly Bolls which is capitulation buy territory at least for a strong bounce. As Mars switches signs from Libra (weak for PMs to Scorpio (strong for PMs) early Oct this will create an good opportunity - risk is down to 1800, upside minimum 1900 extended 1950 for Oct.


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