THE DOT - if this turns orange or red be alert

Friday, January 28, 2011

DAX update

Here we go even the DAX made the weekly 12 today (this week) which gives my 'top' assumption for markets in general a very strong backing. The 13 will come very easy now as initially after the weekend had no big events we might see a small rebound but clearly the 7200 target defined by the consolidation pattern has been reached and the market is ready for a dive now. The dive may go down in 2 scenarios in the first we make an overall 25 % correction within the next 2-3 months. The second is we only make a 10-15 correction a rally from that level once again to new highs before taking an even bigger dive thereafter with a 50 % magnitude as later this year the EU is poised for its biggest crises yet. We have to follow that as we get there but for now get rid of longs and enter shorts for the DAX.

brainstorming Friday - the correction begins

1. Snake Oil salesman Obama shows always his real face in times of distress as he is nothing close to a leader - as his reactions to Egypt are cowardly opportunistic to say the least - nothing one can expect from a rookie and puppet though. He is doing a good job in throwing unsubstantial eloquent speeches but has nor the guts neither the will to follow through as his vanity makes him an easy to control presidency puppet. Bush was also one but in his own pathetic way he would not hide who he was. Well in any case the people seem to have had enough and people should watch the scenes in Egypt very well since that momentum will spread globally as it now goes against dictators in Muslim countries who kept their citizens on very poor level but the effect will at some point reach all levels as the so called middle classes in more developed countries who are robbed and still ignore it to some degree, as the degree of pain has not reached their thresholds yet.
This events could very well trigger the bigger correction as earnings season is not really splendid anyway and the fact that China is on a one week holiday does not help as well.

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Follow The Egyptian Revolution Live Via Al Jazeera

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Forget the irrelevant inventory accumulation... pardon... GDP number. The real news today is coming from Egypt, where history is currently being made and a regime is in the process of being overthrown despite the unprecedented country-wide internet shutdown. The fallout from today's riots will be momentous. Follow all the news in real time from Al Jazeera.

Thursday, January 27, 2011

Brainstorming Thursday part 1

1. The middle east implodes instead of an explosion triggered by Israel - the Muslim world is in turmoil and the consequences will be very severe for the whole world as this seems to be just the beginning.

excerpts from zerohedge

Egyptian Stock Market Plunges Over 11% To Fresh Multi-Year Lows; Is A Suez Canal Transit Halt Imminent?





Ever wanted to see what a market plunge looks like into a revolution-inspired bidless open? Look no further than Egypt: after being halted briefly earlier, the market is now in freefall, dropping 11% in the span of minutes. This brings the two day drop to over 16%, and brings the EGX30 to the lowest level since 2009. Egyptian CDS have surged over 10% to 385 mid, a jump of 40 bps on the day. Anyone who purchased protection on the riot-torn country after we first suggested it is about to roll this weekend, congratulations. And while the important part of the world may ignore what is happening in Egypt, after all it is not US banker money thay is being lost, they may want to consider this: according to reports, there has been live fire in Suez, where the police headquarters have been taken over. More importantly, according to the Guardian, we may see the first army insubordination in this city: "a lawyer and executive director for the Arabic Network for Human Rights Information, has tweeted that some army units in Suez are refusing to support the crackdown against the people." Which means the government may be about to lose control over Suez... And the Suez Canal.

S&P Downgrades Japan From AA To AA-, Outlook Stable





From S&P: "The downgrade reflects our appraisal that Japan's government debt ratios--already among the highest for rated sovereigns--will continue to rise further than we envisaged before the global economic recession hit the country and will peak only in the mid-2020s. Specifically, we expect general government fiscal deficits to fall only modestly from an estimated 9.1% of GDP in fiscal 2010 (ending March 31, 2011) to 8.0% in fiscal 2013. In the medium term, we do not forecast the government achieving a primary balance before 2020 unless a significant fiscal consolidation program is implemented beforehand."



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Former Goldman Insider's Take On Obama's Speech And The Massive Pink Elephant In The Room





Watching Obama deliver his State of the Union Speech last night, reminded me of all the rah-rah quarterly meetings that we had to attend as Managing Directors at Goldman, where senior management would remind us all of how great we were, and if there were any areas of competitive weakness relative to our adversaries at other banks, all we had to do was step up our game, innovate and globalize (or something like that.) Obama wasn't delivering a summary of what has, or is, going on for most Americans last night, no such negative status report. And, if you didn't expect him to, he gave good speech - full of reminders of how it is America's destiny and the American dream to be great and powerful, "robust democracy" that we are. There was a massive pink elephant in the room called reality though....My reaction was wtf?



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Interactive Map Of Recent Food Riots And Price Hikes





While the Fed refuses to extract its head from deep within the sand of ignorant hubris that only a career in Ivy League education can provide, the world continues to burn, in many places quite literally. For all those who are finding it hard to juggle all the rioting, and confuse their Cairos with their Calcuttas, below we present an interactive map disclosing all recent documented food price hikes, protests, and riots.


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Wednesday, January 26, 2011

NDX update

The NDX's monthly chart clearly shows why this is a unique opportunity as we have made a monthly 13 already and challenged this channel resistance which is almost unbreakable at current point with all the bullish sentiment and overbought conditions even on monthly basis. Only the SOX shows a bit margin is left to the upside as the tablet leap in technology will generate some huge demand short term as every competitor is eager to stand up against Apple's monopoly which fits perfectly with the ingress of Jupiter into Aries last WE its rather furious. That is true on many levels though as the riots in Egypt prove. Basically the ingress produces a little spike followed by a steep correction right thereafter. In the 2320-40 area the NDX is a very low risk short with a potential down to 1750 which is about my average 25% correction expectation in the next months.

Tuesday, January 25, 2011

part 3

5. Finally we can expect some business friendly bullshit from Obama - although its a bit weird to assume that Obama has done anything else but business pro stuff during his entire term. So far he has not done anything about Wallstreet or BP , actually he hired all the people from the Clinton's Jewish gang who were responsible for the mess starting with Summers who created a billions in losses for Harvard with his smart ideas but rather has managed to level up banks together with Rubin for the current mess. He has signed on all Bush things up to torture yet and will likely introduce some corp tax cuts tonight in his state of union. As Marc Faber stated today about Obama that he is intellectually dishonest and his appointments do prove that on any single bit. His latest to elect one of the worst CEO's out their as his chief advisor Immelt from GE is a sad fact of his inability to be a leader but proves he is nothing but a vane puppet. Faber also refuses to join Davos claiming their all liars there - makes sense to me.

excerpt

Faber Sees 10% Drop in S&P 500, Says Stocks Expensive

January 25, 2011, 4:47 PM EST

By Rita Nazareth and Carol Massar

(Updates with details of previous forecasts.)

Jan. 25 (Bloomberg) -- Marc Faber, who said owning U.S. stocks would prove profitable in March 2009 before the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index began a 91 percent advance, predicted today that the gauge may drop 10 percent because too many investors are bullish.

“A correction is coming,” Faber said in an interview from Zurich with Carol Massar and Matt Miller on Bloomberg Television’s “Street Smart.” “Equities in the U.S. will go down less than emerging markets.” He forecast a drop of as much as 30 percent for equities in developing countries.

The MSCI Emerging Markets Index has increased 134 percent from March 9, 2009. Equities gained as central banks kept interest rates near record lows and governments spent trillions of dollars to spur growth. On Nov. 3, the Federal Reserve said it would buy an additional $600 billion of Treasuries through June to prevent deflation.

Faber said in an interview with Bloomberg Television on March 9, 2009, that it was “very difficult to see a scenario where you wouldn’t make any money” owning stocks over the next 10 years, while also warning the S&P 500 might lose 26 percent before the bear market ended.

The benchmark gauge for American equities began its biggest advance in five decades that day, climbing from 676.53 to 1,295.02 on Jan. 18, 2011.

Record High

In March 2007, he said the S&P 500 was more likely to fall than rise because the threats of faster inflation and slower growth persisted. The S&P 500 then climbed 10 percent to a record 1,565.15 seven months later, and ended the year up 3.5 percent.

Faber, who publishes the Gloom, Boom and Doom report, reiterated his views from a Dec. 30 interview with Bloomberg News when he said that U.S. Treasury bonds are a “suicidal” investment and are likely to decline in the long-term.

After bottoming in December 2008, the 10-year Treasury yield rose as high as 3.9859 percent in April on government measures to stimulate the economy. Concern about a second recession in three years sent yields lower through October. Treasuries rose today, pushing yields on 30-year bonds down the most this year, on speculation President Barack Obama will propose a five-year freeze of non-security discretionary spending to help cap record deficits.

“Treasuries are the best place for the next 10 days,” Faber said. “Not for the longer-term”

--With assistance from Matt Miller in New York. Editor: Chris Nagi

To contact the reporters on this story: Rita Nazareth in New York at rnazareth@bloomberg.net; Carol Massar at cmassar@blooomberg.net

part 2

3. Rioting will be come a new trend for years to come and we are just in the warm up phase yet - you ain't seen nothing yet. Uranus will be square Pluto in Capricorn starting late this year til 2015 is a given fact for uprise of the underpriviledged and robbed masses around the world. Unfortunately caries also the risk for a nuclear confrontation

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Rioting Breaks Out In Egypt





When we reported three days ago that 59 outbound shipments of gold were intercepted at the Egypt airport, we predicted that the country's oligarchs were proactively preparing precisely for what they knew is coming imminently. It has arrived. From Al-Jazeera: "Hundreds of protesters have begun to take to the streets in Cairo, the Egyptian capital, chanting slogans against the police, the interior minister and the government, in scenes that the capital has not seen since the 1970s, Al Jazeera's correspondent reported.Downtown Cairo has come to a standstill, and protesters are now marching towards the headquarters of the ruling National Democracy Party. "It is unprecedented for security forces to let people march like this without trying to stop them," Al Jazeera's Rawya Rageh reported from the site of the protest."


Tuesday brainstorming

1. Well again banksters have turned a crisis into an opportunity as I have watched 'John Adams' the HBO version rewarded by many awards I miss a great part of the authencity as DC and the USA in general are made and founded on masonic principles as the architecture does clearly state. Those aspects are not mentioned at all also is the role of Hamilton who has a Jewish orign and was raised in a Jewish school who was the first secretary of the Treasury and founded not only the first NY bank but also the first central bank and established plenty of todays bankster privileges not displayed in the correct historic context. He also pushed president Washington in taking loans on behalf of the Treasury and tax Americans which is proudly still the credo of the latest Jewish president of the FED and Secretary of the Treasury.

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Wall Street Partying in Davos as Bankers Overcome Crisis

Wall Street Partying in Davos

The town of Davos, Switzerland, host site of the World Economic Forum (WEF) Annual Meeting 2011. Photographer: Andrew Harrer/Bloomberg

Wall Street Partying in Davos, Bankers Overcome Crisis Angst

An "I Love Davos" T-shirt sits on display in a store in Davos. Photographer: Simon Dawson/Bloomberg

As Wall Street chief executive officers flock to the World Economic Forum, they’ll be breathing a sigh of relief along with the Swiss mountain air: There are no panels on compensation or redesigning financial regulation.

After spending much of last year’s meeting defending the industry and debating proposed rules, bankers plan to focus on wooing clients and winning business, according to executives at three Wall Street companies, who spoke anonymously because they weren’t authorized to comment publicly.

The bankers will be coming to Davos, Switzerland, with a renewed sense of confidence. JPMorgan Chase & Co.’s profits last year were the highest in the bank’s history, and Citigroup Inc. returned money to the U.S. Treasury and reported its first full- year profit since 2007. Governments have so far opted against breaking up or levying extra taxes on banks deemed too big to fail, and the Basel Committee on Banking Supervision, which sets global financial-regulatory guidelines, isn’t requiring lenders to meet new capital standards until 2015.

2. One should take the time and read what the IMF called back end of 2008 and early 2009 which were extremely doom and gloom scenarios and now they make again this pathetic calls - the mere fact that the president of the IMF and Worldbank ethnic roots are the same as the ones mentioned above is a pure coincidence and has no structural background.

excerpt

IMF Raises 2011 GDP Estimates on Stronger U.S. Growth

IMF Raises 2011 Growth Estimates, Says Risks Still ‘Elevated

“The world economy is recovering, but it is a two-speed recovery,” IMF chief economist Olivier Blanchard said in comments posted on the fund’s website. Photographer: SeongJoon Cho/Bloomberg

The International Monetary Fund raised its forecast for global economic growth this year, reflecting stronger U.S. output based on tax-cut extensions, while emerging nations lead the recovery.

The world economy will grow 4.4 percent, more than the 4.2 percent expected in October. Expansion next year is projected to reach 4.5 percent, unchanged from October, the IMF said today in an update to its World Economic Outlook report.

“The world economy is recovering, but it is a two-speed recovery,” IMF chief economist Olivier Blanchard said in comments posted on the fund’s website. “Our forecast is that next year growth will be roughly the same as this year. That’s not going to be able to make a big dent to unemployment.”

While a faster-than-expected second half of 2010 helped put the world on a stronger foothold this year, the IMF warned that risks to its predictions remain “elevated.” It pressed euro- region governments to build a comprehensive plan to prevent sovereign-debt “financial stresses” from spreading out to other countries and urged emerging countries to closely watch the rise of asset price bubbles as inflation risks increase.

“In advanced economies, activity has moderated less than expected, but growth remains subdued,” the IMF said in the report. The institution said that in “many emerging economies, activity remains buoyant, inflation pressures are emerging, and there are now signs of overheating, driven in part by strong capital inflows.”

Rising Commodities

The IMF in a separate report today said that financial conditions have improved, with equity markets and commodity prices rising. It also warned that global financial stability is not assured yet, with the interaction between banking and sovereign credit risks in the 17-country euro region remaining “a critical factor.”

The IMF’s estimates are more optimistic than those of private forecasters, who expect global growth of 4.2 percent this year, according to the median estimate of economists surveyed by Bloomberg News this month.

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