THE DOT - if this turns orange or red be alert

Tuesday, March 31, 2009

AMZN tech outlook - market update

AMZN had a good run so far and is heavily overvalued after it got the thumps up from Barron's which is quite a contra indicator these days. In the 76-78 area it should make a top. We have a possible extension option to lower 80's within the next 4 weeks but a substantial downmove is due thereafter in any case. I will update as soon as we have the daily 13's in place.
Markets made a window dressing up to day and we might have seen the low for this week but next week will bring us lower to wards the targets described yesterday before the wave C up starts. The G 20 meeting should bring another small disappointment brief sell off before recovering and extending the recent highs.

Monday, March 30, 2009

Good that Wagoner got fired finally - same would be true for many wallstreet executives

Nothing he did in the last years was a good move its troubling to understand why this happens so late since its only a PR trick and a distraction from something else as ten thousands of workers need to fired as well they want to send a message to calm down the nerves. Only that Wagoner keeps his hefty pensions after being overpaid for many years and the regular workers will loose part of their pensions or their jobs. Also Obama screws with peoples minds to make him look like fighter for the people which he is not.

The US car industry can not be allowed to die and needs to be saved and this bankruptcy threat is just a measure to force the unions and bondholders to make some more concessions rather deep ones as they will look unpatriotic if they don't. Mr Wagoner does not need to make concessions about his pensions that's how the game is played in modern capitalism (Selected socialism).

Excerpt


GM’s Wagoner May Receive $20.2 Million in Pensions (Update1)


By Jeff Green

March 30 (Bloomberg) -- General Motors Corp. Chief Executive Officer Rick Wagoner may be eligible for pensions valued at $20.2 million as of the end of 2008, according to a regulatory filing. He isn’t eligible for severance pay.

The pensions under two retirement plans include a $68,900 yearly amount and five annual payments of $4.5 million, according to the Detroit-based company’s annual report filed with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission on March 5.

“Mr. Wagoner has worked for GM for nearly 32 years, and would be entitled to certain vested awards, pension and other post-retirement benefits,” company spokeswoman Renee Rashid- Merem said, referring to the annual regulatory filing. “However, specifics on any compensation entitled to or actually paid to Mr. Wagoner are still being reviewed.”

GM doesn’t have an employment agreement with Wagoner, 56, that would provide him with any special additional benefits for his departure, she said.

Wagoner, CEO since June 2000, was asked to leave GM as part of the automaker’s restructuring, which President Barack Obama today said did not go far enough.

GM fell 90 cents, or 25 percent, to $2.72 at 2:42 p.m. in New York Stock Exchange composite trading.

GM had said it would shed 47,000 jobs globally in 2009 and plans to close five assembly plants. Executives said the automaker will focus on four U.S. brands, down from eight, and eliminate thousands of dealers.

A former Duke University freshman basketball player and Harvard University MBA, Wagoner joined GM in 1977 in the treasurer’s office. He ran GM’s operations in Brazil and served as chief financial officer over the course of his career.

DOW tech update

The DOW weekly chart shows a perfect short term bottom at least as we have a bullish divergence pattern combined with a channel support and we produced that low with a perfect 13 count and will have as of tomorrow a monthly reversal pattern.
After such sharp retracements or impulsive waves up we need to see a corrective move within which started on Friday and as a weekly count happens mostly in week 4 or 5 and we are now in week 4 and have made almost a 38% retracement which is at 7376. We might even extend towards 7000 sometime next week as this corrective move should unfold in an ABC wave pattern and tomorrows window dressing should bring prices up briefly but we are biased for a few days of volatile downside correction before bigger wave B up can start.

A different tech outlook - big market manipulation going on

March 27 2009 CNBC SQUAWKBOX EUROPE

LET’S LOOK AT THE S&P 500 INDEX

Two weeks ago on Squawk Box I said stocks looked good and the index would rally 12 trading days then we’d have to assess it again. Yesterday was the 13th trading day of the rally so here’s the assessment. As we discussed last week, if this were a last leg down in the bear campaign the time of that leg would be either 60 to 64 days or 90 to 99 days from the January high. The low was 60 days from that high and 90 days from the December 8th high which was very important because many stocks including the financials hit their highs on that date. The index was then 90 days form the December high and since 90 is a completion cycle for many stocks it carried a strong probability of ending the leg down.

If the rally could exceed 3/8 of that leg down it was sufficient confirmation the leg down was complete and there would be a strong rally into the 12th trading day.

This vibration in time should continue so there are three important time windows the next two months. The 6th/7th of April at 30 days from low and 90 and 120 from highs. If the index goes down into that “time” with a 3 to 5 day move down it would be bullish and present a low. If the index goes up into that date with a distribution pattern it could indicate a run at the March lows. The next important time window would be around the 20th of April at 45 calendar days from low and then 60 calendar days around the 6th of May.

If this is an end to the bear the index will either build a base that will take out to May 6th as it did in 1938 or the index will test the March low. This has been the largest month up since October 1974.

SO LET’S LOOK AT OCTOBER 1974 IN THE S&P 500 INDEX


The low to the 1973/1974 bear campaign was October and December. During 1974 the index found low in October and ran up into an early November high and turned down on the 32nd calendar day from low. But there was a very obvious distribution pattern going into the 30 day time window. So far our current circumstance doesn’t show a distribution. It then went down 32 days and provided a higher low at 45 days from high. The Dow Jones Industrials moved to a marginal new low below October in December 1974 creating a bullish divergence between the two indexes.

I am confident of the time periods, it will simply depend up how the index goes into those time windows to determine if the bear campaign is complete and if it will build a base of retest the March low.


Disclaimer: All the reports and content in the entire McLaren Report web site (including this report) are for educational purposes only and do not constitute trading advice nor an invitation to buy or sell securities. The views are the personal views of the author. Before acting on any of the ideas expressed, the reader should seek professional advice to determine the suitability in view of his or her personal circumstances.

We are in one of the biggest market manipulation I have seen in 24 years watching the markets.
At the low we had huge call buyers and an ISEE of 220 - never seen that before and this Friday the insiders sold just before the bad news hit the market and the ISEE was at the lower end - that is against all odds and logic and confirms that we have a huge manipulation going on.
Overall it does not change the outlook as described earlier a pullback was overdue and we are now definitely in wave B a bit earlier then I thought as I expected that to happen later this week. The next 2 weeks the markets are vulnerable as Geithner times things in a very obscure way and obvious way as some insiders happen to know his claims earlier than public. I want to see how this day goes before I write my assumptions for today.


Thursday, March 26, 2009

Astro and tech update of SPX

The SPX is heading to the 850 target which might be extended to 870 even. Today we counted day 8 hence we have 4 updays left which matches perfectly the stellar momentum as the NEW MOON triggers rallies in Aries and tomorrow is the lucky day as Sun is conjunct Venus. Monday and Tuesday are the window dressing days. We will have a critical setback time between the 4th and 10th of April as Mars will be in opposition to Saturn and trigger a more substantial correction for a few days like from 850 down to 790 and we might see another test of the highs til the 17th of April plus a few days which will mark the end of bigger wave A up and be followed by a bigger decline of wave B - that we will discuss as soon as the top is in.

Wednesday, March 25, 2009

The VIX factoır - technical update

VIX is in week 3 down and we still have not made the dip down below 38 to complete the daily count to 13. That will about next week latest by the week after and mark the end of wave A up around 850 SPX which managed to close higher after some profit taking during the day.
We need to dip below 40 and actually close around 38 for 1 day when a substantial correction should occur and a rise towards 50 is likely before dropping again to 40 at least may be even 35.

Wallstreet is basically a huge Ponzi scheme

Geithner declares that the government - actually the taxpayers have to take the risk*
Who the f... is he to know and put up trillions of dollars at risk at high risk - that's not the only solution - its rather the wrong solution.
The Government could use the same money to give direct credit to Mainstreet - no one needs private banks to do that. Let banks just go bust and guarantee for the people's accounts worth of cash would be step one. The next step would be to put up via Internet simple credit applications for the one's who need them like its done with Micro credits and the FED can pay out the money.
who needs fancy overrated bankers who can blow away in one year more money than made in one century. Who needs Harvard MBA's who are only trained for their own success but can not stand up to their duties ( that includes the last president).
The whole concept of success is a huge fraud as it never was based on real efficiency or solutions for the whole system. It was just a system to deliver incredible undeserved wealth for elitists who could arrange to get into the inner circle.
Do not think that those myths about Wallstreet are true and the bright ones make the money. They have some bright talented people there but the real money is made by insider schemes and manipulation of markets.
The profits they created up to 2007 from 2003 were mostly cooked and bubbled up were never real in most cases and the FED was a big part of this scam as they came up with this perverse FED-model to value markets which was bullshitting right from the start as they manipulated the data in the equation. Greenspan started that with Clinton as they started to manipulate the statistics of inflation down and therefor the GDP was always overrated. Therefor they claimed that stocks were cheap and forced everyone to jump on the train. The Emperor was naked but insisted he was wearing the most spectacular dress. The next thing in this derivatives was to create products they could mark up by their own liking and got the rating agencies to give the obscene AAA for junk. Finally they leveraged that phony products and made profits on paper which never existed and paid themselves perverse bonuses out.
Now the government has to take risk - I say they need a huge prison for this financial terrorists which dropped the whole world into a depression - instead they even pay themselves bonuses with tax money - how can they have such guts ? Because the government works for them they supported them all the way by not overseeing them and even changing legislation so they could just do what ever they liked. Geithner as the FED boss of NY was in charge of them and now a former Goldman partner has his job - Obama is not about change at all, he was made president by them and except for some media noise he does nothing about them.

Geithner Plan Will Rob US Taxpayers: Stiglitz

This is probably the biggest robbery of all times and Madoff looks lie petty cash compared to what the Rothschild boys are planning. They get a one way bet and the taxpayer finances it and covers all the risk which is not only the most stupid plan but also shameless approach as the simple way when the government does take the downside there is no point at all leaving the upside to anyone else. That is the most outrages and ruthless thing I have ever heard off and shows who the Obama administration works for- not the American people but the Rothschild boys are their master.

Excerpt

Geithner Plan Will Rob US Taxpayers: Stiglitz

The U.S. government plan to rid banks of toxic assets will rob American taxpayers by exposing them to too much risk and is unlikely to work as long as the economy remains weak, Nobel Prize-winning economist Joseph Stiglitz said on Tuesday.

"The Geithner plan is very badly flawed," Stiglitz told Reuters in an interview during a Credit Suisse Asian Investment Conference in Hong Kong.

U.S. Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner's plan to wipe up to US$1 trillion in bad debt off banks' balance sheets, unveiled on Monday, offered "perverse incentives", Stiglitz said.

The U.S. government is basically using the taxpayer to guarantee against downside risk on the value of these assets, while giving the upside, or potential profits, to private investors, he said.

U.S. Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner's plan to wipe up to US$1 trillion in bad debt off banks' balance sheets, unveiled on Monday, offered "perverse incentives", Stiglitz said.

The U.S. government is basically using the taxpayer to guarantee against downside risk on the value of these assets, while giving the upside, or potential profits, to private investors, he said.

Even if the plan clears banks of massive toxic debt, worries about the economic outlook mean banks could still be unwilling to make fresh loans, while the prospect of a higher tax burden to pay for various government stimulus plans could further undermine U.S. consumers, he said.

Some Republican lawmakers have also expressed concern over the incentives offered by the government, which could end up providing private investors with more than 90 percent of the funds to buy the troubled assets.

But President Barack Obama has said the plan was critical to a U.S. economic recovery, Stiglitz, a professor at New York's Columbia University and a former World Bank chief economist, also urged G20 leaders at their London summit next month to commit to providing greater resources to developing countries and said China should be given bigger voting rights in the International Monetary Fund.

"The voices of developing countries, and countries like China that will provide a lot of the money, are not heard."

China would be hard pushed to reach its targeted 8 percent economic growth this year, but the important thing was that at least the Chinese economy was still growing, he said.

Stiglitz welcomed China's proposal on Monday for an overhaul of the world monetary system in which Zhou Xiaochuan, governor of the People's Bank of China, said the IMF's Special Drawing Right has the potential to become a super-sovereign reserve currency.

Stiglitz has long called for the U.S. dollar to be replaced as the only reserve currency.

Basing a reserve system on a single currency whose strength depends on confidence its own economy is not a good basis for a global system, he says.

"We may be at the beginning of a loss of confidence (in the U.S. dollar reserve system)," he said. "I think there is support for some sort of global reserve system."

Tuesday, March 24, 2009

SPX tech update

We are clearly trading up to the first big target and resistance of the SPX at 850 to complete nwave A up and not as I suggested earlier around the 50day MA.
The trading band or chanel is well defined and the price acting speaks volumes. The experiation was used to shake out some longs as the announcement on Monday which was sure to rally the markets is part of this fabricated rally.
As we go into the window dressing period we can expect to test the 850 area the next days before we see wave B down which should give back at least 25% of the almost 200 points up. That should happen early April around the 4th but the real critical time frame is around the 17th when Venus turnes retrogade again as the first one on the 6th of March triggered the rally.

The doom clock is moving closer to 12

This kind of headlines and noise are pure deceptions and distractions from the reality.

Geithner Says U.S Must Impose Limits on Risk at Biggest Firms
Bernanke Sought Lawsuit to Halt AIG’s Retention Bonus Payments

They actually just do the opposite as they work for other people but the government when it comes to their real agenda. Its all a huge fabricated theater play to camouflage the real stuff which happens behind the noise. That includes their new cheerleader Obama as he does mostly the opposite of what he prays. If he was serious about his words he never could have hired the stuff who is running DC now and he has signed in those 2 months many bills which extend the policy of Bush against his claims for change.

Watch the following movie to get some clues as I do not want to describe details when they are presented in such a good way.

http://www.watch-movies-links.net/movies/the_obama_deception/

Democracy around the world does not exist anymore other when by the sheer deception that you can vote. Basically there is not lot you can vote on as the result will be the same when it comes to the realistic outcome. An elite has installed the framework to pull the strings as they like by control of media, money flows and shopping all corrupt people in administrations. In fact they have trained and placed a whole generation of puppets to execute their agenda and control all crucial spots in governments and administrations.

The matrix has become reality only that its not machines but a small very powerful group who has no conscious but has the understanding that trey deserve to to own and run this planet and that the masses are just outlets to guarantee their power and serve their interests at all costs.

I know this sounds like the classic conspiracy theory but to create the CT tabu was one of their brightest tricks to manipulate public opinion. It does not take a lot to gather all information necessary to come to the same conclusion for yourself when you allow yourself to thing for your own. In some cases some powerful members of this group have even admitted publically this agenda as David Rockefeller did with a book he published.

For more than a century, ideological extremists at either end of the political spectrum have seized upon well-publicized incidents to attack the Rockefeller family for the inordinate influence they claim we wield over American political and economic institutions. Some even believe we are part of a secret cabal working against the best interests of the United States, characterizing my family and me as "internationalists" and of conspiring with others around the world to build a more integrated global political and economic structure - one world, if you will. If that's the charge, I stand guilty, and I am proud of it. -David Rockefeller

http://saynototyranny.blogspot.com/2007/10/david-rockefellers-book-memoirs-treason.html

The facts are all there but they can manipulate people minds so easily that they even throw the truth into your face and still claim they never said that. Quite troubling but easy to figure out if you invest a bit of time.

Now they fabricated this economic chaos to gather even more power in order to save the world as Bernanke and Geithner claim that they need more of it although they have frankly failed completely at their official jobs but that was deliberately as they have an hidden agenda.

Part one of that agenda is to create global chaos and financial meltdown to get better control of asset control by creating a global central bank which is after all a Rothschild outlet. The FED is not a federal institution and 3 US presidents who rejected their creation were assassinated. The perversion becomes quite obvious as you study history the same Warburg who was the financial advisor of the German Kaiser was made the first president of the recent FED early last century. These days its run by Goldman as they are one of the crucial players in this agenda and if Obama would have been serious about all the stuff he claims he would have triggered a full fledged investigation against ex Goldman CEO Paulson and Secretary of the Treasury who made some central moves in betraying the American people and has now setup Geithner to complete the mission.

Here a classic case how this breed I was speaking of earlier is connected - this is by the way the Undersecretary for the Treasury nomination (Mr Wolin) of Obama ( 'astonishingly' he prefers Jewish people on crucial spots - which is also a dominating theme when it comes to the elite spots as the Worldbank and IMF presidents are and Bernanke). But that is not an Obama bias Mr Clinton was given the same people more or less - its not that they would choose , they get equipped with a team.

Nicole Louise Elkon and Neal Steven Wolin were married last evening in East Hampton, N.Y. Rabbi David J. Gelfand performed the ceremony at the Jewish Center of the Hamptons.

Ms. Elkon, 35, is keeping her name. She was until February the chief of staff and the director of communications for the 9/11 United Services Group, an organization in New York that coordinates long-term assistance by 13 charities for victims of the September 11 attacks and their families. She was a special assistant and deputy director of scheduling to President Clinton from 1995 to 1997 and then was the director of planning until 1999 for the National Security Council. Ms. Elkon graduated from McGill University.

She is the daughter of Mimi Liebeskind and André Elkon, both of New York. Her father is a director for private-client investments at Oppenheimer & Company, the New York financial services concern. Her mother is a consultant for the retail clothing and manufacturing industry in New York and is the president of the board of Business and Industry for the Arts in Education, an organization in New York that sponsors literacy programs.

Mr. Wolin, 41, is an executive vice president and the general counsel at the Hartford Financial Services Group, the insurance and financial services business in Hartford. He worked at the National Security Council from 1993 to 1995, first as the deputy legal adviser, and then as the executive assistant to the National Security Adviser. He was with the Treasury Department from 1995 until 2001, working as the deputy general counsel and then as the general counsel.

A summa cum laude graduate of Yale, the bridegroom received a master's degree in development economics from Oxford University in England. Mr. Wolin also has a law degree from Yale. He is the son of Doris W. Wolin and Harry S. Wolin of Evanston, Ill. His mother is the director of Israel Experience, a program of the Jewish Federation of Metropolitan Chicago that assists young adults on trips to Israel. His father is a partner in Cohon, Raizes & Regal, a Chicago law firm.

Although the bride and bridegroom both worked in the White House during the Clinton administration, they did not meet until July 2001, when a mutual friend introduced them.

Sunday, March 22, 2009

SPX - the bigger picture- how to survive

The SPX has finished the first beg wave down with all the necessary ingredients to make a bigger recovery. Although the low was manipulated with an unseen event of 'smart call buyers' at the low it is still valid for now.
By fundamental means the valuation was not cheap at all at the low but that you can expect only at the real low which is far away in time and price parameters.
We can now expect a substantial ABC correction up with 850 the minimum magnitude but rather 950 before the big next wave down starts. Since the downmove started 18 months ago we can even expect the upside consolidation period to last up to 6 months from here. First of all the plenty programs introduced by the FED and Treasury will basically pump up the value of banks temporarily as they generate fabricated safe profits for them and will at some point even reinstate the faith of the public that the phony Obama admin has done the the trick. You will see analysts revising up the earnings and the cheerleaders drumming Mainstreet back into the markets at the highs. Actually astrology confirms such an event as Jupiter will be conjunct Neptun from May to Aug which creates false optimism as the bigger picture has apparently really the worst is still to come constellations starting in the 4th Q of 2000 as Saturn will get square Pluto followed in 2010 by Uranus square Pluto which are the most destructive energies one can imagine and are building a T-Square towards 2012.
So do get let fool yourself by a temp upswing as we had such events in 1930 USA and 1990 Japan as well but really ugly stuff happened thereafter especially beyond 1930 ( which had a similar astrological constellation).
Obama is not the man he pretends to be as one can see easily at his birth chart, actually he has pretty good deception skills and is ruthless by nature and as a Leo loves his power and to fly around with Airforce One :). He did not keep any promise and all his stuff he hired speaks volume of his real agenda. He is even a more dangerous puppet than Bush and he was made president by the Rothschild boys who after all just use him. All he says against Wallstreet is phony as he acts the opposite way in reality. He prolonged the patriot act and even prepares even worse things as he wants to create a civil army within America under his direct order under homeland security to get ready for the riots.
Get rid of all your stocks and bonds in this upcomimg rally and start to buy Gold as it will become cheaper again. Second you should activate your democratic rights and block any of those upcoming undemocratic actions and legislation. Start now and be decisive and determined to kick ass until mid term elections and make sure the right people get elected which will not be easy as most of them are lobbyists and corrupt.

Saturday, March 21, 2009

The Obama deception - strongly recommend to watch the movie

http://www.watch-movies-links.net/movies/the_obama_deception/

Friday, March 20, 2009

NDX tech update- general market update

As expected the gap turned out to be a resistance and we are heading now in a minor downwave on a daily 9 count. The other factor which proved to be helpful is the Mercury - Saturn opposition as a short term market turner. As we are heading now to a difficult New Moon on Thursday we should have more setback or consolidation activity after a 200 point rally we might easily give back 38% and test the lows of last week before turning back up to make new highs and test the 1290/1300 resistance. The difference of this rally compared to Nov. are plenty as this comes from a bullish divergence and has finished weekly 13 counts to turn around which gives much more power to the whole move. This one is comparable to the big rally in 1880 Nikkei or 1830 DOW and could reach a magnitude of up to 50% from the low. The bullish divergence is not valid for the NDX though - that made a positive intermarket divergence proving that this is the year of TECH ( Jupiter in Aquarius).

The Geithner dilemma- he is useless but getting rid of him will not change a lot I am afraid

Geithner is just a puppet of the Paulson /Rothschild boys and has no saying just executes their agenda. Ms Bair is not under their control it seems although some of her calls are also questionable but after all she is more competent and not a Wallstreet lobbyist. The problem is that she also has Bernanke on Geithner end against her although he is not a power player at all. The recent actions of the FED do bolster short term bank profits ans they get a guaranteed profit to make but they run out of steam at the end of this year as it will be obvious that their policies are useless and counterproductive. All they do is generate some profit opportunities for insiders - Mainstreet will not see nay benefit to the contrary they are building huge future losses as they artificially blow up prices which will not be sustainable and lead to tremendous losses.

President Obama makes phony promises to the public as he will not see any upturn during his term actually rather the opposite as unfortunately we are in a depression and things will get much worse to cleanse the system. Most of the actions of the government are keeping up the old system and that can not work as the system is dead just being kept alive artıficialy like a coma patient.

Excerpt

Just as Treasury Secretary Tim Geithner finds himself wrestling with the bear that's mauling the US economy, he's also tussling with another: Sheila Bair, chairman of the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp.

While regulators in Washington, DC, are presenting a united front publicly as they attempt to repair a badly damaged US financial system, sources said that behind the scenes Bair and Geithner are fighting tooth and nail over exactly how to get the job done.

And as the economic crisis has worsened, Bair has been the one to come out on top.

Indeed, Bair's star is said to be rising as Geithner faces withering criticism over the government's missteps in its attempts to jumpstart the credit markets and for allowing American International Group to hand out $165 million in bonuses after the beleaguered insurer received a total of $170 billion in federal rescue money.

Sources tell The Post that Bair and Geithner have been at loggerheads dating back to when Geithner ran the Federal Reserve Bank of New York.

Geithner has been painted as being too cozy with financial firms and unwilling to act decisively and take on big Wall Street players.

Bair, meanwhile, has earned a reputation of being a hawkish regulator, willing to play hardball with banks and opposing providing any subsidies to bondholders and shareholders, according to one supporter.

She was also one of the first regulators to promote measures designed to stop foreclosures and modify mortgages.

And yesterday, she criticized a Geithner plan to create a so-called "systemic-risk regulator" that would monitor banking and economic issues that threaten the economy, saying such a move "is not a panacea."

She went on to say that the feds currently don't have a system in place to handle the failure of non-bank financial systems like AIG. One of the duties of the FDIC is to oversee the orderly dismantling of failed banks, and sources said there are signs Bair might be trying to get the FDIC involved in unwinding companies like AIG.

People familiar with the matter said that Bair and Geithner's feud has gotten so heated that at one point last year, before Geithner was confirmed as Treasury secretary, he suggested she be ousted as FDIC chairman.

Bair was originally appointed FDIC boss by former president George W. Bush, and her appointment doesn't end until 2011.

Thursday, March 19, 2009

BKX tech update - market update

The financials were as expected the driving force in the short covering rally and are exhausted after 50% gains in the case of the BKX. In the 30/1 area we have severe resistance for the time being. We can now expect a pullback of 5 points thereby half of that we saw already today. Wave A up came to an end and wave B down is now in the making. A wave C up will follow thereafter.
Basically other sectors will take over the lead as the commodity complex is clearly now in the upside correction. So keep using weakness to buy for the next week especially as that should be rather in a downside bias.

The FED decisions are even stupid or evil in any case they create another lethal bubble

Buying assets with money they create artificially is by definition a bubble and a lethal mistake as they create again artificial profits for banks and if I were the Chinese Treasury I would unload on the FED and run. Think for about a moment what kind of weird things are going on the US treasury issues bonds to raise funding and the FED raises their balance sheet with money they do not have to buy them - that's insane - completely cooking books and people should be sentenced for that. Who ever has IRA with government bonds sell them as this is the best price you might get in decades. Foreigners having losses already on the currency as the Dollar dropped sharply on that announcement. This Rothschild driven central banks are acting insane in many ways as they just work for the benefit of banks but not Mainstreet.

Excerpt

‘Rambo Fed’ Will Buy Treasuries to Combat Crisis

By Scott Lanman

(Corrects size of Fed balance sheet in 14th paragraph.)

March 19 (Bloomberg) -- By committing to buy Treasuries and double his purchases of mortgage debt, Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke signaled his determination to avoid a repeat of the Great Depression and his willingness to pump as much cash into the economy as needed to end the current crisis.

U.S. central bankers decided yesterday to buy as much as $300 billion of long-term Treasuries and more than double mortgage-debt purchases to $1.45 trillion, aiming to lower home- loan and other interest rates. The Fed kept its main rate at almost zero and may keep it there for an “extended” time.

The moves sparked the biggest drop in 10-year Treasury yields since 1962, rallies in the stock market and gold and a plunge in the dollar against the euro. Economist Richard Hoey said Bernanke has created the “Rambo Fed,” referring to the Sylvester Stallone character skilled with weapons.

“This is a very powerful and aggressive move,” Hoey, chief economist at Bank of New York Mellon Corp., said in an interview with Bloomberg Television. “One of the reasons I’ve been arguing we won’t have a depression is we’ve got a Fed chairman who understands the problem and is going to come with the right diagnosis and the right medicine.”

With the purchases of Treasuries and housing debt, Bernanke is effectively using the Fed’s powers to print money and aim it where he and other officials believe it will have the greatest impact in lowering borrowing costs.

Unanimous Decision

The Federal Open Market Committee’s decision was unanimous, indicating the agreement to start buying Treasuries quelled disputes over how the central bank should expand its balance sheet. Richmond Fed President Jeffrey Lacker and others favored government-debt purchases instead of intervening in credit markets, as Bernanke has pioneered in the past six months.

Bernanke has studied the Great Depression extensively and published a book of his papers on the subject in 2000. In 1929, the Fed was “essentially leaderless and lacking in expertise,” Bernanke said in a November 2002 speech. The situation led to decisions that were associated with a “massive collapse of money, prices, and output,” he said.

Yesterday’s decisions will add $750 billion in purchases this year of mortgage-backed securities issued by government- sponsored enterprises Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac and Ginnie Mae, for a total of $1.25 trillion. The Fed has already announced $217.1 billion in net purchases out of $500 billion planned through June, under a program unveiled in November.

The central bank will also double to as much as $200 billion this year its planned purchases of debt issued by Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac and Federal Home Loan Banks. The Fed bought $44.4 billion of the so-called agency debt as of March 11.

Jumpstart Lending

The $1 trillion Term Asset-Backed Securities Loan Facility, which is opening this week to jumpstart consumer and business lending, “is likely to be expanded to include other financial assets,” the FOMC statement said, without elaborating.

The Obama administration is considering melding the Treasury’s plan to set up private investment funds to buy frozen assets with the Fed program, known as the TALF, people familiar with the matter said. Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner may make an announcement as soon as this week, after his first unveiling of the strategy caused a sell-off in financial stocks.

“This is not really a victory for Lacker,” said James O’Sullivan, a senior economist at UBS Securities LLC in Stamford, Connecticut. “Lacker seems to be arguing for Treasury purchases instead of targeted programs. They are instead supplementing the targeted programs. They are just using all tools.”

Double Balance Sheet

The New York Fed will concentrate Treasury purchases among two- and 10-year securities. The transactions will take place two to three times a week, and the Fed may also buy other maturity Treasuries and Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities, according to a New York Fed statement.

The moves may more than double the Fed’s balance-sheet assets by September to $4.5 trillion from $1.9 trillion, said John Ryding, founder of RDQ Economics LLC in New York.

At the same time, the changes increase the danger, once the economy recovers, that the Fed won’t be able to unload the securities quickly enough to raise interest rates and counter inflation, said Ryding, a former Fed economist.

Bernanke floated the idea of buying Treasuries in a Dec. 1 speech. Then the FOMC said in its last statement on Jan. 28 that the Fed would be “prepared” for the purchases if “evolving circumstances” indicated their effectiveness.

Bank of England

The option gained ground after the Bank of England succeeded in lowering long-term rates by buying U.K. government bonds known as gilts in a program announced this month, said Lyle Gramley, a former Fed governor. The 10-year gilt yield slid to the lowest level in at least 20 years after the purchases began.

“Our objective is to improve the functioning of private credit markets so that people can borrow for all kinds of purposes,” Bernanke said at a Feb. 24 Senate hearing. “We are prepared, and we want to keep the option open to buy Treasury securities if we think that is the best way to improve the functioning or reduce interest rates in private markets.”

While Treasury yields fell, the strategy isn’t guaranteed to work in reducing other rates.

The Fed is “naive” if officials think the move will lower borrowing costs, said Doug Dachille, chief executive officer of New York-based First Principles Capital Management. The “historic precedent” of when the Treasury Department was buying back debt amid the budget surpluses of the Clinton administration show it may fail to do so, he said.

Wednesday, March 18, 2009

VIX tech update - indicating wave 1 up comes to its end

The old target of 36-38 is now in sight and will mark the end of the current upleg in stocks. As soon as we have the 13 count in the signs are for a correction down and in VIX terms up. A 38% retracement of the SPX would bring us back to 740 before we make another wave up to 870. For now 800 should mark the top in the SPX.

NDX tech update - general market update

The NDX has reached a crucial area for this leg the gap area from where the downleg started in Jan and we will end this leg within the gap area by tomorrow before pulling back to the 1150 support. The NDX is the first index to trade above the 50 MA. A strong resistance is at 1250 for the time being. The FED just announced to expand their balance sheet by 1 tril. to over 3 tril which is 300 % more compared to regular times which is crazy but helps to fuel the sucker rally going forward

Not the bonus for AIG but the 105 bil paid out to other banks thats the real scandal

Paulson and current Secretary Geithner are responsible for ripping of taxpayers - basically stealing money to save some bankers criminal behaviour who still have not been put to jail or even brought to court. Bonuses must not be paid and should not be paid actually the government should sue all companies who paid and claim the money back.
Simple math as Wallstreet has destroyed in one year more money than they made in 2 decades (at the end more than they made ever) is not the ground for any bonus its rather a case for fraud and the FBI should make investigations into the behaviour of all CEO's and some officials like Paulson for misconduct of his office. Hundreds of billions of profits claimed the last years were fabricated and never real and hence the money paid out was basically fraud.

Excerpt

AIG Chief: Bonuses Must Be Paid Despite Outrage

The head of American International Group plans to tell Congress that the "cold realities of competition" compelled the insurer to pay $165 million in bonuses but acknowledged that bailout-weary Americans' patience was running thin.

Tuesday, March 17, 2009

DOW tech update - market update

Yesterday's reversal was reversed today which is a very bullish sign going forward for this bear market rally. The test of the red 50 day MA is mandatory within 3 weeks but we will have on hurdle to take at some point we need to pull back not to the lows but a wave 2 down is mandatory and a likely point of time is next week as we are heading for a difficult New Moon in square to Pluto around the 26th but before that Mercury will be opposite Saturn on the famous Uranus / Saturn opposition axis which starts at the 19th. Hence the likely time frame for a setback is the 19th to the 26th with a retest of the 740 level.

Its a freaking charade wıth AIG - they are bankrupt and the things happening behind the noise

I do not see any legal complication in this matter as a bankrupt company can not pay by definition and if not those silly payments would have been made to AIG they could not pay anyway one cent. That they lost close over 100 bil. with those derivatives (CDS) is very troubling and that tax money was used to settle the claims of other investment houses who used that to pay bonus makes it even more weird. Just to put it into proportion Wallstreet lost more money in one year than they made in decades - so basically all bonus of those years need to be returned as many bonuses especially after 2003 were fabricated as were the markets.

Many corporations buying back their own stocks at the highs are selling them now at the lows and wallstreet advised them in both cases and takes hefty commissions as well but still produces losses. You see where I am getting to this whole Wallstreet thing is mostly a rip off scheme of totally overrated 'talent' - and it covers the things behind the scenes as some people manipulate markets big time and make big money for insiders. That's an issue no one speaks off but those trading floors are basically a camouflage for a lot of illegal insider action. Goldman is one of the leading forces behind all this activity as they made some trades which were amazingly well timed to say the least. Martin Armstrong the famous cycle developer who sits in jail because he would not sell his model to the CIA and the fact that he was invited to the Insider circle a few times and his rejections are part of the reason he was in jail for 7 years without a trial ( that is unique by itself). The Rothschild boys work on many levels and some are covered up by official entities as some Hedge funds are their outlets and execution arms for public visible trades as they can not hide every move ( thats a thesis and not easy to prove ) but still very obvious for people who follow the markets. That's why it was essential to have the people on the right spots as the markets turned which they were aware off. It was crucial though that Goldman and some others were paid out on their hedges or they would have been crashed as well and Secretary Paulson from Goldman made that possible which was very convinient but not by accident.

Excerpt

AIG Bonuses May Face an Excise Tax From ‘Outraged’ Senators

March 17 (Bloomberg) -- American International Group Inc.’s $165 million in executive bonuses may face “the highest excise tax” possible as Senate leaders including Harry Reid and Christopher Dodd seek to recover the money for taxpayers.

Senate Finance Committee Chairman Max Baucus, a Montana Democrat, said he may impose the biggest excise tax sustainable in court on bonuses paid to employees after AIG took four taxpayer funded bailouts totaling $173 billion.

“The American people are outraged, and I am as well,” Senate Banking Committee Chairman Dodd, a Connecticut Democrat, said during a hearing today in Washington. “One way or another, we’re going to figure out a way to get these resources back.”

Dodd said he wants the Federal Reserve, which is overseeing AIG’s bailout, to explain how it will resolve the situation. New York-based AIG, whose fourth-quarter net loss was the worst in corporate history, has been targeted by lawmakers for continuing to pay bonuses, including to employees in the unit that sold the credit-default swaps that contributed to the company’s collapse.

“I would recommend they give back those bonuses,” Senate Majority Leader Reid, a Nevada Democrat, said on the Senate floor today. “We as a Congress are not defenseless.”

Baucus’s proposal “will certainly send a message to the people at AIG, and all others who try to benefit from the hardships the American people face,” Reid said.

“What’s the highest tax we can impose on those bonuses that is sustainable in court?” Baucus asked Internal Revenue Service Commissioner Douglas Shulman at a committee hearing in Washington.

“I share your outrage,” Shulman responded.

‘Serious Questions’

Senator Charles Schumer, a New York Democrat, said in a speech on the Senate floor that he was sending a letter to AIG Chief Executive Officer Edward Liddy asking executives to return the bonuses to their “rightful owner.” He said if the money isn’t refunded, Congress will pass laws to “tax these bonuses at a very high rate.”

Senator Sherrod Brown, an Ohio Democrat, said the AIG bonus payout “smacks of greed, arrogance and worse.”

Monday, March 16, 2009

SPX tech update - general update

That was a typical 5ish day after so big gains in so short time its just natural to make a pause and shake out some people. Tomorrow we rather should trade lower initially. We had a 108 point rally and could easily give back 25% even 38% is possible. The later is 40 points down and means testing back the 740 level before resuming the upmove. We also are head for quadruple witching and many calls and puts outstanding need to be settled Friday which might make the market range bound for the rest of the week between 735 and 775. Beyond that we are heading for the big first window dressing and some market movers have a big interest to create a positive first quarter so expect the rest of the month heading for 825. The actual level even creates a monthly reversal opening the way for a multi week rise and that's exactly what they want to create after they have fabricated a vicious low at 666. I never have seen a low with an ISEE factor of 220 which means aggressive call buying ( usually lows are marked by fear).

Outrages -Secretary Paulson saved Goldman by bailing out AIG as they received a total of 18 bil.


The AIG bailout turns into an real ugly episode as ex Goldman CEO secretary Paulson saved especially Goldman as they received up to 18 bil from AIG settlements of trades. In that light it is outrages that Goldman payed any bonus since they were saved by taxpayers and would be bankrupt otherwise. The same is true for any of the recipients of AIG money as the so called counter party risk is a substantial part of the risk taking business in the industry.

Not to mention that any cent of bonus paid to any AIG employee in the trading unit is outrages. This whole affair turns out to be unbearable and in case of AIG those losses paid out will never return to taxpayers. That makes the whole thing a big charade as the BUSh administration vetoed children's health care worth of 50 bil. but spent easily 100 bil for moron traders bonus payments.

Excerpt

Through three separate types of transactions, Goldman received an aggregate $12.9 billion. Among European banks, SocGen was the biggest recipient at $11.9 billion, Deutsche got $11.8 billion and Barclays was paid $8.5 billion, Reuters reported.

Using the loan from the government AIG paid $22.4 billion in collateral to counterparties of credit default swaps written by AIG Financial Products (AIGFP). Those payments were made between September 16, 2008 and December 31, 2008, and included $4.1 billion to Societe Generale, $2.6 billion to Deutsche Bank and $2.5 billion to Goldman Sachs.

Another $43.7 billion went to pay counterparties of AIG's securities lending operations. The biggest recipients of those funds included Barclays which received a $7 billion payment, Deutsche Bank which received $6.4 billion and BNP Paribas and Goldman Sachs which received $4.9 and $4.8 billion respectively.

Friday, March 13, 2009

DOW tech update - market update

The Dow chart shows how well the channel support has stopped the wave and the test of the resistance is due within a few weeks. Mandatory is the test of the 50 day MA at 7750 but I rather think that 8250 is a target within 4 weeks. No one is in this market so far as mostly we have seen short covering so far. To turn into a real sucker rally the market needs to suck in longs and that happens rather close to the highs. The DOW has not taken out the Nov low so far but crucial is that the SPX did so and the NDX turned even above creating a positive intermarket divergence. Keep buying weakness early next week.

Thursday, March 12, 2009

CRB tech update - general market update

The whole process is in sink OIL and CRB have made their lows and will start rising substantially soon. Target for the CRB in the first wave is 250 but we actually should even trade up to 300 finally within 2-3 months. A long term analysis might turn out much more aggressive in terms of target levels. Stock markets confirmed the bottom as the SPX close above 740 and we are now in a multiweek upside move. The way things look will be confirmed with tomorrows close as the first impulse wave up should soon come to an end and a pullback is mandatory. I rather expect for next week to happen (first half) as we have plenty important meetings over the WE and Monday is day 5 of the upmove which tends to be corrective. 6th March the day Venus went stationary turned out to the exact impulse to turn the markets which will last til mid April. Even the Investor Intel. reached the extreme levels as well with 26.4 bulls and 47.2 bears - not as extreme as the November readings but even that is a bullish divergence.

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