The SPX chart has made it above the 50 day MA, which is not a big deal and heads for the channel resistance around 940. The 50 week MA cross 200 week MA effect is fully developing - hence a strong snap back into the counter direction. The market seems to shrug off bad news fairly well for now, but do not believe for a moment that the market is cheap. Conversely, it's rather expensive now but as we are heading for year-end and more upside manipulation can be expected (a legal one was the steep rate cut of the FED ), before the market takes another dive in early January, latest. In the last 100 years, every steep recession has had its low around 7.5 times trailing earnings. If we generously take 70 for the SPX, 500 would be the level but the earnings of today are not equal to older ones as accounting rules allow for plenty diluted effects to boost the formal earnings.
Wednesday, December 17, 2008
SPX outlook
The SPX chart has made it above the 50 day MA, which is not a big deal and heads for the channel resistance around 940. The 50 week MA cross 200 week MA effect is fully developing - hence a strong snap back into the counter direction. The market seems to shrug off bad news fairly well for now, but do not believe for a moment that the market is cheap. Conversely, it's rather expensive now but as we are heading for year-end and more upside manipulation can be expected (a legal one was the steep rate cut of the FED ), before the market takes another dive in early January, latest. In the last 100 years, every steep recession has had its low around 7.5 times trailing earnings. If we generously take 70 for the SPX, 500 would be the level but the earnings of today are not equal to older ones as accounting rules allow for plenty diluted effects to boost the formal earnings.
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