The capitulation is on even the NDX has confirmed the sell out. SPX will test the 750 within a week but as I said earlier we need to make new lows here to make a real trough we should test even the 700 area - I will try to figure out on the WE how low we can eventually go but in capitulations you always have exaggerations.Between 650 and 700 should be the exhaustion. The DOW is in week 11 hence the time window for the low is around the early March. We might get an small bounce at some point especially from the 750 level very likely as some will try to trade the double bottom and we are in wave 3 of bigger 5 down hence a small wave 4 up is due next week as we are also quite a bit under weekly Bollingers. The Dow points to the Tuesday and the New Moon effect might support that. We look into that next week and before we should test the 750 area anyway.
Thursday, February 19, 2009
Capitulation part 2 is on
The capitulation is on even the NDX has confirmed the sell out. SPX will test the 750 within a week but as I said earlier we need to make new lows here to make a real trough we should test even the 700 area - I will try to figure out on the WE how low we can eventually go but in capitulations you always have exaggerations.Between 650 and 700 should be the exhaustion. The DOW is in week 11 hence the time window for the low is around the early March. We might get an small bounce at some point especially from the 750 level very likely as some will try to trade the double bottom and we are in wave 3 of bigger 5 down hence a small wave 4 up is due next week as we are also quite a bit under weekly Bollingers. The Dow points to the Tuesday and the New Moon effect might support that. We look into that next week and before we should test the 750 area anyway.
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