USDTRY tech and fundamental outlook

We have as of FEB entered month 6 up and will challenge the 1.75 resistance for 9 year once again and rather make a new high as we are in a ascending triangle pattern hence 1.85 is likely but is also driven by a dollar strength per se. After a huge devaluation in 2000 the market locked into a trading range most of it with record interest rates down from high 80's to current 15% that was accompanied by high inflation from high 60's down to even 10% at some point but the latter number is due to some statistical changes to produce lower figures although the real inflation runs closer to 20's for the recent year. Coming soon within the next 2 months is an interim top around that 1.85 partly due to the fact that the Dollar will top out in general and that world markets will believe in Q2 of 2009 the did the trick and things are stabilising ( which is as true as your neighbour will travel to the moon next year). Two amazing underlying scenarios will determine the currencies big move thereafter. First of all all the Hedge Funds and Japanese housewife's which loved the carrytrade as the central bank and government had the highest interest in keeping a strong currency against all odds made some people make big money as the earned interests around 20% per year and if they were smart especially around 2005 made also decent gains on the currency. Turkeys debt and trade deficit are ever rising and the government sold almost all state assets without cutting the debt. They learned from the IMF how to fabricate low inflation on a statistical basis and reduce their interest payments dramatically but as a matter of fact have negative interest rates in a weak economy. Which is a dangerous mix but the second scenario might change the underlying value of the currency going forward but is a very delicate matter. Turkey never found officially Oil on its soil although all neighbours are loaded with natures bounties. Suddenly some small news about crude found is made public although plenty sources claim for 2 decades that there is oil in Turkish soil. The official acknowledgement at some point would change the valuation of the currency but that will not happen any time soon as the places they might be found are the most sensitive and critical area's as they will be close the the Iraq border and on soil most Kurds would claim to be their land. If we remember the Bush administration once represented a 'new middle' east map by Ms. Rice where a part of Turkey was officially not Turkey anymore. That was an outrages fact but exactly that piece of Turkey might be the region there very likely oil will be found interestingly. We have a huge International process going on to capture that area by different sources although due to the Versailles contracts as Turkey gave up parts of the Ottoman empire they had the rights to receive parts of any natural resources gains which are in the Kurdish parts of Iraq these days.

That area will be an area of big tensions in the years to come and determine the economic and currency welfare of Turkey. Against all the noise about current oil prices oil will be a crucial asset to own on your soil at least for the next 20-40 years until energy technology will deliver quantum leaps.