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Thursday, July 1, 2010

EURTRY update

After our strong support was broken at 2.05 market dropped to 1.89 and build a base mainly due to the EURUSD moves. Since the EURUSD has found a solid base for now as the focus returns to USA as anticipated. We might see another dip to the 1.20 level in July though as stock markets will continue to drop sharply.
Still the EURTRY will close within the next 2 weeks above the 1.9650 level and trigger a retest of the 2.05 level which should be parallel to a retest of the 1.27 EURUSD which will be the crucial level for both going forward to break in order to change the trend - that remains to be seen. We will have a high volatile market in the next 2-3 months with sharp swings but the overall trend for the Turkisk Lira is down as markets will go down - the recent 11.7 GDP is rather a math miracle not a real event as mostly it represents inflation which is artificially low by aprox. 10 points below real inflation. Another cliff hanger for Turkey is the looming Iran attack which is not priced in at all as Turkey's new foreign policy and direct and indirect colleteral damage from such an event will be substantial.

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