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Wednesday, June 30, 2010

DOW update - - the heat is on

A rare event instead of window dressing we had an window stripping event closing at the quarters low in a quarterly reversal. Left hand the daily DOW chart with the death cross about to happen within 2-3 days which creates a 90 % probability with all the other factors that a big bear market is ahead. This is a very unusual cluster where a daily reversal turned into weekly and quarterly breaking plenty of crucial levels although the DOW is the only one of the big 3 which is right at the edge but that is just a random observation as the bear market is on. From now on its about in which waves it will unfold and not if it will happen - a retest of the lows as I have been writing over a year is part of the process. The first big target is 8250 in 6-9 months for now the first short term target may be 9400 which is a 38% level with the former one being a 62% level and the target deriving from the Head & Shoulder pattern as well. From 9400 we might have a brief counterswing to 9800-10000 even if that happens it a good point to add shorts but one should run a big line going forward as the earnings season will not be a pleasant one except the big banks with there cheat earnings.

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