THE DOT - if this turns orange or red be alert

Monday, September 20, 2010

Brainstorming Monday - part 1

1. The biggest IPO ever is due this week - with an obscure project as Petrrobras wants 78 bil new capital for something never done before and an economically extremely risky model once the drilling was a success - which is not a given at all. Never before has been drilled so far out and so deep before and the break even is rather close to 100 Dollar per barrel with the market in the low 70's a very risky enterprise by all means. In a market rising without any real buyers - but we get an idea why it is manipulated up many secondary stock offerings piling up from Petrobras ,GM , Deutsche Bank, UBS, Credit Suisse just to name a few. Actually Santander pulled today an 28 bil offering as it sees market not ready to absorb and at the same time the M&A machines are rolling the dice for banks as well. Hundreds of billions with an average margin of 3-5 % explains why the FED is manipulating stockmarkets higher.

Sentiment has improved quite a bit over the last 3 weeks and is now in the neutral zone as we are heading at least for an interim top this week around Thursday with the Full Moon. More on that in the technical updates.

excerpt

MONDAY, SEPTEMBER 20, 2010 Blank Image

INVESTOR SENTIMENT READINGS
High bullish readings in the Consensus stock index or in the Market Vane stock index usually are signs of Market tops; low ones, market bottoms.

Last Week2 Weeks Ago.3 Weeks Ago
Consensus Index

Consensus Bullish Sentiment51%50%41%
Source: Consensus Inc., P.O. Box 520526,Independence, Mo.
Historical data available at . editor@consensus-inc.com
AAII Index

Bullish50.9%43.9%30.8%

Bearish24.331.642.2

Neutral24.924.527.0
Source: American Association of Individual Investors,
625 N. Michigan Ave., Chicago, Ill. 60611 (312) 280-0170.
Market Vane

Bullish Consensus50%48%43%
Source: Market Vane, P.O. Box 90490,
Pasadena, CA 91109 (626) 395-7436.
FC Market Sentiment

Indicator56.0%56.4%56.5%
Source: First Coverage 260 Franklin St., Suite 900
Boston, MA 02110-3112 (617) 303-0180. info@firstcoverage.com
FC Market Sentiment is a proprietary indicator derived from actionable sell-side trade ideas sent by the sell-side to their buy-side clients over the First Coverage platform. Over 1,000 institutional sales people at more than 250 firms participate on the First Coverage platform and have contributed hundreds of thousands of ideas since inception. Each Idea is associated with a ticker or sector and is tagged bullish or bearish by the creator. This data is aggregated at the sector, industry and market level. The FC Market Sentiment score ranges from 0-100 (0=most bearish, 50=neutral, and 100=most bullish) and represents a completely objective, real-time view into what advice the sell-side is providing to their buy-side clients


Citigroup Panic/Euphoria Model
Market Sentiment


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