THE DOT - if this turns orange or red be alert

Monday, September 14, 2009

part 2

3. Another news increasing the potential for a surgical strike on Iran as they paint the picture of urgency for a military strike - I doubt though that sensitive military tech of the latest generation can reach Iran that easily after the Patriot act they do listen to everyone making any move or noise so the NSA will be very aware of what is going on at all times. More intersting though is the notion that Russia takes a tough stance against any further sanction refering to Iran as they will play the situation to their advantage.

excerpt
Iran Gains U.S. Military Technology Through Malaysia Middlemen

By Justin Blum

Sept. 14 (Bloomberg) -- Iran increasingly is obtaining U.S. military equipment and technology through shipments to Malaysian middlemen that illegally circumvent trade restrictions, according to American officials and analysts.

The U.S. has charged, convicted or sentenced defendants in at least six cases involving Malaysia since August 2008. The shipments have included parts for bombers and items sent to firms linked to Iran’s nuclear and ballistic missile program, according to court papers. More Malaysia shipments are under investigation, according to a law enforcement official who spoke on condition of anonymity.

The shipments illustrate how difficult it is for U.S. law enforcement to keep military secrets and equipment from reaching Iran, a country the U.S. accuses of developing nuclear weapons and sponsoring terrorism. The U.S. bans most trade with Iran.

Middlemen also have operated out of the United Arab Emirates city of Dubai. Shipments through Malaysia increased after the U.A.E. cracked down on exports more than a year ago, said Steven Pelak, the principal deputy chief of the Justice Department’s counterespionage section in Washington.

“We’ve seen a lot more being now diverted through Malaysia in particular,” Pelak said in an interview. “We have seen Iranian front companies there and we’ve seen an increase there since there’s been a tightening in Dubai.”

Military goods also have been illegally shipped to China, which has been trying to obtain missile, imaging, semiconductor and submarine technology from the U.S., according to a Defense Department report this year. Espionage allegations against China are “unwarranted,” said Wang Baodong, a spokesman for the country’s embassy in Washington.


4. Sentiment picture is rather mixed but if we discriminate in a 10% potential and a 30% potential move both would be negative/neutral on the upside and positive for 10% , neutral for 30% on the downside. That means a 10% pullback is the most likely scenario. some of the indicators are the following but its important to see their dynamic as well to make a valid conclusion.


Excerpt


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MONDAY, SEPTEMBER 14, 2009 Blank Image

INVESTOR SENTIMENT READINGS
High bullish readings in the Consensus stock index or in the Market Vane stock index usually are signs of Market tops; low ones, market bottoms.

Last Week2 Weeks Ago.3 Weeks Ago
Consensus Index

Consensus Bullish Sentiment39%42%47%
Source: Consensus Inc., P.O. Box 520526,Independence, Mo.
Historical data available at (800) 383-1441. editor@consensus-inc.com
AAII Index

Bullish37.3%38.0%34.0%

Bearish44.038.048.5

Neutral18.724.117.5
Source: American Association of Individual Investors,
625 N. Michigan Ave., Chicago, Ill. 60611 (312) 280-0170.
Market Vane

Bullish Consensus49%47%49%
Source: Market Vane, P.O. Box 90490,
Pasadena, CA 91109 (626) 395-7436.
FC Market Sentiment

Indicator53.6%52.6%53.3%
Source: First Coverage 260 Franklin St., Suite 900
Boston, MA 02110-3112 (617) 303-0180. info@firstcoverage.com
FC Market Sentiment is a proprietary indicator derived from actionable sell-side trade ideas sent by the sell-side to their buy-side clients over the First Coverage platform. Over 1,000 institutional sales people at more than 250 firms participate on the First Coverage platform and have contributed hundreds of thousands of ideas since inception. Each Idea is associated with a ticker or sector and is tagged bullish or bearish by the creator. This data is aggregated at the sector, industry and market level. The FC Market Sentiment score ranges from 0-100 (0=most bearish, 50=neutral, and 100=most bullish) and represents a completely objective, real-time view into what advice the sell-side is providing to their buy-side clients


Citigroup Panic/Euphoria Model
Market Sentiment

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