THE DOT - if this turns orange or red be alert

Monday, October 11, 2010

part 2

3. The inflation fraud has reached a level where its hard to deny as the official numbers are so far out of reality that everyone knows the emperor is naked but people have developed an attitude which will only benefit the wrong momenetum until we are all in WW3 very soon. Giving the tea-party right wing your vote is not the answer as it is an overall trend seems to indicate. Democracy does not end with the vote it rather starts with it - democracy also means to take full responsibility as the people in power are the people in theory but the system has been perverted as DC has become a self fullfilling entity who just needs to spend some money to get the vote it wants. Only that they have driven the system to a point of no return mess and the only way out is another world war. Hyperinflation is around the corner as predicted as a result of the banksters default and the FEDs bailout policy of printing money which has no worth - this is just the beginning and Obama is part of this fraud as his promise of transperancy was actually turned into the biggest government lies ever probably about the real economic state of affairs. not that McCain would have done any better but the reason why people gave obama their vote was his promise to do bettern than the disastrous Bush admin. but turned out to be even worse as he had the chance to make a fresh start instead hired all the Clinton people who produced this mess to begin with.

excerpt

Corn Crunch Means Costliest Beef in Quarter Century


By Whitney McFerron and Elizabeth Campbell

Oct. 11 (Bloomberg) -- Meat prices are poised to extend a 14 percent rally this year that drove U.S. retail costs to the highest levels since the 1980s as surging corn futures prevent livestock producers from expanding their herds.

The U.S. cattle herd in July was the smallest since 1973 and the number of breeding hogs last month was near the lowest ever, government data show. Corn futures jumped to a two-year high today and the price of the main feed ingredient is more than 70 percent above the 10-year average.

U.S. per-capita beef supplies next year will be the lowest since 1952 and pork the smallest since 1976, industry researcher CattleFax said. Hog futures will rise 14 percent by July and cattle may gain 3.6 percent by April, according to a Bloomberg survey of analysts. Wendy’s/Arby’s Group Inc., the maker of the 1,360-calorie Baconator Triple burger, and CKE Restaurants Inc., owner of the Hardee’s chain, have warned investors they are contending with higher commodity costs.

“If grain prices go up, then meat prices are going to have to move up,” said Mark Greenwood, a vice president at AgStar Financial Services Inc. in Mankato, Minnesota, who oversees $1 billion in loans and leases to the hog industry. Corn costs “tempered any enthusiasm there was on expansion,” he said.

Livestock prices failed to keep pace with third-quarter rallies of as much as 40 percent for corn and wheat, as too much rain and heat eroded U.S. yields and drought hurt crops in Russia and Europe. Cattle futures rose 11 percent in the period and hogs dropped 8.3 percent.

Corn soared the 45-cent maximum limit allowed by the Chicago Board of Trade today to $5.7325 a bushel, the highest price since September 2008, after the U.S. Department of Agriculture on Oct. 8 cut its harvest forecast for the second time in two months. The December corn futures contract was up 43.25 cents, or 8.2 percent, at $5.715 a bushel at 10:51 a.m. in London. Wheat, soybean, rice and oat futures also rose.

Cattle Feedlots

U.S. cattle feedlots that didn’t lock-in corn costs faced losses in the third quarter, said Ron Plain, an economist at the University of Missouri in Columbia. Feedlots made money in the first half after two years of unprofitable markets from surging feed costs and the global recession, he said.

“Normally, six months of profit will get you to the early stage of herd expansion,” Plain said. Costlier corn “slows expansion plans,” he said.

Farmers may earn $5.46 per hog in the first seven months of 2011, according to Steve Meyer, president of Paragon Economics in Des Moines, Iowa. That’s down from his July forecast of $19. Cattle feedlots lost about $17 a head last month, compared with profit of $42 in the first half of 2010, Plain said.

Price Forecasts

Hog futures will advance to 84 cents a pound on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange by July, up from 73.85 cents on Oct. 8, according to the average estimate of seven analysts surveyed by Bloomberg. The top estimates were 90 cents, which would be the highest level since 1996.

Cattle futures will rise to $1.024 a pound by April, from 98.875 cents on Oct. 8, according to the survey. Goldman Sachs Group Inc. last month predicted $1.05 as early as December, which would be the highest since September 2008.

4. Sentiment has risen substantially to the bullish side without reaching an extreme though but we are ready for an correction now starting today with a higher weekly opening.

excerpt

MONDAY, OCTOBER 11, 2010 Blank Image

INVESTOR SENTIMENT READINGS
High bullish readings in the Consensus stock index or in the Market Vane stock index usually are signs of Market tops; low ones, market bottoms.

Last Week2 Weeks Ago.3 Weeks Ago
Consensus Index

Consensus Bullish Sentiment56%63%58%
Source: Consensus Inc., P.O. Box 520526,Independence, Mo.
Historical data available at (800) 383-1441. editor@consensus-inc.com
AAII Index

Bullish49.0%42.5%45.0%

Bearish27.731.625.4

Neutral23.225.929.6
Source: American Association of Individual Investors,
625 N. Michigan Ave., Chicago, Ill. 60611 (312) 280-0170.
Market Vane

Bullish Consensus54%54%53%
Source: Market Vane, P.O. Box 90490,
Pasadena, CA 91109 (626) 395-7436.
FC Market Sentiment

Indicator54.5%55.9%55.5%
Source: First Coverage 260 Franklin St., Suite 900
Boston, MA 02110-3112 (617) 303-0180. info@firstcoverage.com
FC Market Sentiment is a proprietary indicator derived from actionable sell-side trade ideas sent by the sell-side to their buy-side clients over the First Coverage platform. Over 1,000 institutional sales people at more than 250 firms participate on the First Coverage platform and have contributed hundreds of thousands of ideas since inception. Each Idea is associated with a ticker or sector and is tagged bullish or bearish by the creator. This data is aggregated at the sector, industry and market level. The FC Market Sentiment score ranges from 0-100 (0=most bearish, 50=neutral, and 100=most bullish) and represents a completely objective, real-time view into what advice the sell-side is providing to their buy-side clients


Citigroup Panic/Euphoria Model
Market Sentiment

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