THE DOT - if this turns orange or red be alert

Tuesday, December 7, 2010

part 2 - tech special - Google declares war

2. Google declares war against Apple on full scale as it now enters the home turf ground - this I assume will bring big pressure going forward on AAPL margins as they at the same time attack more fiercly the iphone and ipad. with its black item presentation.
In any case we have a quantum leap in consumer computer technology ahead of us which could be bad news for İntel if they are not part of the next generation Ipad chips or HTC, Motorola, Samsung and Acer units which will be flushing the market in 2011. Another loser in the game may be Microsoft as they miss out now on the 2 top items smartphones and tablets with a shrinking PC market ahead.

excerpt 1
Google Announces Chrome OS Pilot Program, 12.1 Inch Notebook Cr-48
Jason Kincaid
2 hours ago


Today at this morning’s major Chrome event, Google has just announced that Chrome OS… isn’t done. It still has work to do with camera drivers (for notebook USB ports), finishing Google Cloud Print, and more. But it wants to get the notebook into early adopters’ hands, so it’s announcing a new Pilot Program. Google will be distributing a notebook called Cr-48. These are not for sale, they are designed as a test unit.

Consumers will be able to apply for this, however, but Google isn’t giving it away to just anyone. On its Facebook Fan Page, they ran a promotion a couple days, announcing a sticker for a Chrome laptop, if you did that quiz, you get a notebook. If you go toyoutube.com/googlechrome and make a video showing why you’re an ideal candidate for this, you’ll have a chance to snag a notebook. And everyone in the audience at today’s event is getting one (everyone claps). And if you don’t fall into any of those buckets, you can go tothis page to apply.

The CR-48 is supposed to boot in 10 seconds, includes a webcam, and 12-inch LCD display. It is 3.8 pounds with 8 hours of battery life and an entire week of standby time, according to Google’s marketing materials. Eventually, manufacturing partners will make Chromebooks you can actually buy in stores.

excerpt 2

TechCrunch Review: Google Nexus S
Michael Arrington and Jason Kincaid
Dec 6, 2010

For the last few days we’ve been using the Google Nexus S, manufactured by Samsung, with the new Android 2.3 “Gingerbread” operating system. This is a phone that was designed with direct input from the Google Android team. And like its predecessor, the Nexus One, which was released in January 2010, it has a “clean” install of Android. That means there is no additional software layer from third party OEMs or carriers to interfere with the user experience. Like the Nexus One, this will become the reference phone for this generation of Android.

Unlike the Nexus One, the phone was not built from scratch – the starting point was the Samsung Galaxy S, released earlier this year. And Google will not be selling this phone directly to consumers. They say that experiment is over, and this phone will be available initially at Best Buy in the U.S. (on T-Mobile) and Carphone Warehouse in the U.K. Google says the phone is currently expected to be available starting December 16, although pre-orders might be taken earlier.

The phone does not fail to please. It is significantly faster than the Nexus One (and most current generation phones), has a high-end AMOLED 400 x 800 resolution screen that is second only to the iPhone 4, and is NFC-enabled. Like all Android phones it is dead simple to set up, assuming you use Gmail, Google Calendar, Google contacts, etc. But it’s Google’s various apps, some of which are unavailable for the iPhone, that make it the best phone on the market today.

excerpt 3

Google shows early Android 3.0 (Honeycomb) tablet

android-3-0-honeycomb-tablet

Andy Rubin showed off an unreleased Motorola tablet running Android 3.0 at the All Things D Conference in San Francisco.

In the last 24 hours, we’ve had a flurry of Android smartphone news. Android 2.3 (Gingerbread) details have been released; Google announced the Nexus S phone; the Google eBookstore has launched; and we learned that a new version of Google Maps with 3D buildings is coming out. Well, here’s one more. Video of Android chief Andy Rubin’s Google Maps demonstration at the All Things D Conference has hit the web, and brought some extra details. Rubin showed off the new Maps features on an unannounced upcoming tablet from Motorola running an early version of Android 3.0 (Honeycomb), a 2011 version of Android that will officially support tablets.

The hosts you’ll see in the video below are Walt Mossberg and Kara Swisher of D: All Things Digital. CNET does a good job summarizing the majority of the rest of Rubin’s interview where he is grilled on the failure of the Nexus One and the fragmentation between Android experiences on different handset manufacturers, and how much control carriers have over Android.

During the interview, Rubin shows off the new Google Maps and some other new features of Android 3.0. The biggest change is that the tablet doesn’t have a single button on the front of it–even the iPad has one button. Rubin explains this by showing how the device can be picked up and used from any orientation, meaning that it has no real bottom or top. (However, he doesn’t mention that the front-facing camera is only in one place.) He also shows off a tablet version of Gmail and some new desktop widgets. The device’s homescreen looks almost Windows-like in some ways.

TechCrunch estimates that the Motorola tablet shown is about 9 inches, larger than the Samsung Galaxy Tab, but slightly smaller than an iPad. It has no price point or release date, but Rubin does comment on the price of the pre-production unit he’s holding: about $10,000.

brainstorming Tuesday - bond crash is the new game in town

1. Indeed as I had pointed out a few times Bernanke and the FED are screwing US investors once again as the next bloodbath is the bonds they all bought for their own 401 accounts and via the FED they loose double through the ongoing Bond crash. This will e the main reason for a stock crash at some point as it has erased all profits of today in a classic reversal. Congratulations for the 2 top conman in USA who may one day be honored as the biggest enemies within in history as Bernanke is the top frontrunner for that award.

excerpt

TYZ Bloodbath Commencing In 5...4...3...

Tyler Durden's picture




The only chart that may matter until the end of the year... And no, this is not Portugal.

Furthermore, in extolling the virtues of the administration's trading record, one should be objective and point out that with a DV01 of $1,000,000,000, the Fed's SOMA is sitting on $20 billion in intraday losses today alone.(Don't forget that the Fed is the biggest hedge fund in the world currently).

5

Euro update

The support around 1.30 has done a good job so far but reached a crucial resistance on Friday challenging again today the declining resistance now at 1.34. As we are in a weekly down count now its a regular counter-move so far and if we can not break above the 1.3440 level on a closing basis the most likely scenario could be a retest of the 1.30 and follow through to 1.27 thereafter to complete the 13 counts. Right now I am a bit unsure myself but the odds are 60/40 we need to go down once again. As we are still oversold on a daily basis we have some momentum in principal for the upside but the same can be said on the downside for the weekly chart. One crucial part will be the Irish parliament today as they have to agree to the 4 year measures and we are about to get a mini correction in stocks the next days which brings a complex situation short term to culmination. Bottom line is that also Gold about to peak short term again and its hard to trade this market right now from current levels other than with assumption if we can not break the upside within 24h we rather will drop back to 1.30 and even lower.

Monday, December 6, 2010

Whoever made Obama president gets the full deal

Without comments from the excellent zerohedge page

The Latest News On The United States Of Welfare And Hand Outs





The latest from Reuters, on the late news that Obama will both extend Unemployment Insurance for 13 months, and extend the Bush tax cuts for 2 years:

  • Obama: has reached a framework for compromise with Republicans to extend all Bush tax cuts for two years
  • Obama: compromise also calls for extending jobless benefits for 13 months, and calls for 2% payroll tax cuts next year, and for extension of estate tax
  • Obama: says compromise is an essential step on the road to economic recovery
  • Obama: he is confident that Congress will ultimately ‘do the right thing’

We just hope that the prostituting administration will finally float the one proposal we have all been waiting for: free blow jobs for everyone in perpetuity, funded by the Federal Reserve's monetization of the Sinking Hooker fund.


Watch As David Einhorn Makes A Mockery Of One-Man Fed "Expert Network" Larry Meyer





One of the Fed's more arrogant former apparatchiks (of the "100% confidence" interval) Larry Meyer, currently at expert network Macroeconomic Advisors which is used by the likes of Pimco to get inside information on what the Fed will do at its upcoming meetings, appeared on CNBC earlier and attempted to school David Einhorn on "Economics 101." What ensued was yet another confirmation that these Ph.D's (a term we always use in the most pejorative, NC-17 context possible) who destroyed the world, have absolutely no idea what the hell they talk about, and make up bullshit scenarios on the fly. Luckily, it has gotten to a point where every incremental statement catches them in one lie or another. It has become grotesquely comic to watch their faces (as in Bernanke of 60 Minutes infamy) squirm as they realize that the end of the system they created and subsequently destroyed, is near.

brainstorming Monday

1. The timing for the mini correction should be this week as some still hope for a tax solution these days but I doubt it will be delivered quickly as Mars moves into Capricorn tomorrow things will get harder to accomplish. The last of a tripple Jupiter Uranus conjunctions is on the 4th Jan which is a very bullish pattern but the last which brings a steeper correction scenario right after very likely. For now we can expect a mini correction as soon as the SPX closes above 1225 as the VIX has made the missing 13 on Friday and AAPL will deliver tomorrow ( the missing 2 links). Banks and Transportation will still be rising but some tax selling should kick off the mini correction as we are very close to daily Bollinger any close above might hint to the start.

excerpt

MONDAY, DECEMBER 6, 2010Blank Image
INVESTOR SENTIMENT READINGS
High bullish readings in the Consensus stock index or in the Market Vane stock index usually are signs of Market tops; low ones, market bottoms.
Last Week2 Weeks Ago.3 Weeks Ago
Consensus Index
Consensus Bullish Sentiment50%54%64%
Source: Consensus Inc., P.O. Box 520526,Independence, Mo.
Historical data available at (800) 383-1441. editor@consensus-inc.com
AAII Index
Bullish49.7%47.4%40.0%
Bearish26.224.732.5
Neutral24.127.927.5
Source: American Association of Individual Investors,
625 N. Michigan Ave., Chicago, Ill. 60611 (312) 280-0170.
Market Vane
Bullish Consensus52%53%53%
Source: Market Vane, P.O. Box 90490,
Pasadena, CA 91109 (626) 395-7436.
FC Market Sentiment
Indicator56.3%55.6%54.4%
Source: First Coverage 260 Franklin St., Suite 900
Boston, MA 02110-3112 (617) 303-0180. info@firstcoverage.com
FC Market Sentiment is a proprietary indicator derived from actionable sell-side trade ideas sent by the sell-side to their buy-side clients over the First Coverage platform. Over 1,000 institutional sales people at more than 250 firms participate on the First Coverage platform and have contributed hundreds of thousands of ideas since inception. Each Idea is associated with a ticker or sector and is tagged bullish or bearish by the creator. This data is aggregated at the sector, industry and market level. The FC Market Sentiment score ranges from 0-100 (0=most bearish, 50=neutral, and 100=most bullish) and represents a completely objective, real-time view into what advice the sell-side is providing to their buy-side clients


Citigroup Panic/Euphoria Model
Market Sentiment

Sunday, December 5, 2010

brainstorming sunday - Strange things going on with Uranus going stationary

1. Why would the FED do such an announcement ( even more QE2.5) as QE2 has just started and non of it ever worked so far - how could printing money solve any of the structural issues which remain unsolved. All Obama and he other puppets did was to buy time for banks and to make sure the robbery from in could continue.

excerpt 1

Bernanke Tells Nation This Sunday: More QE Coming

For those wondering why the market leaked higher in the last hour, it is because someone got an advance copy of the transcript (or advance notice) that in this Sunday's latest attempt at faux transparency on 60 Minutes, the bearded mutant-cum-supreme genocidal overlord says that more QE is coming. From Reuters: "The euro rose to a session peak against the dollar in late afternoon New York trade on Friday after a report on the CBS website that Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke did not rule out buying more than $600 billion of bonds in further quantitative easing." It also explains why the euro is back to 1.34, and is right in line with our expectations that the EURUSD is only weak so long as the market realizes that much, much more QE is coming. How much? See the chart below for our ongoing expectation of what the Fed's balance sheet will look like soon. And yes, the $7 dollar jump in gold late in the day may be multiplied 10-20x on Monday after the world realizes that the US economy is as fucked as always.

excerpt 2

Former OMB Director Debunks The Economic Recovery Myth





There is propaganda, and there are facts. For anyone seeking just one concise, definitive and completely true (as in fact-, not hope- based) explanation of what has happened to the American economy in the past 2 years, we suggest this presentation by former OMB director David Stockman, whose 10 minute appearance on the CNBC's strategy session left the hosts with absolutely nothing to retort. Among his observations: the government sector for the first time in history is shrinking: "the reason is that governments are broke... we are going to have to cut back government employment." And it gets scarier: "if you take core government plus the middle class economy (65 million jobs), that's the breadwinning economy, if we take some numbers - how many jobs in the "core economy" in November - zero; how many jobs since last December: net zero; how many jobs since the bottom of the recession in June 2009: still a million behind from when the recession ended." As to whether the economy can grow without employment growth: "I can't imagine how it can because employment growth generates income growth which is the basis for spending and saving ultimately and we are not getting income growth out of the middle class." And the stunner: the job "growth" has come almost exclusively from the part-time economy (two-thirds). Why is this a major problem: "there is 35 million jobs in that sector, with an average wage of $20,000 a year: that is not a breadwinning job, you can't support a family on that, you can't save on that. Those jobs will not generate income that will become self-feeding into spending." As for the biggest condemnation, it is reserved to what Zero Hedge has been claiming for two years now is a completely broken market: "I can't explain the market... I don't know what it is pricing today, I don't think the market discounts anything anymore, it is purely a daytraders' market that is trading off the Fed, trading off the headlines. One day it is manic, the next day it is depressive, and we can't draw any conclusions." And scene.


2. In Euroland is an ongoing war between Germany and the rest ( sounds familiar ? - not judging) as EU council declared that the rescue fund shall be increased against the specific will of Germany. Although Mrs Merkel might not have thought it through as an isolated Germany with a strong DM would not do very well anyway. Soon a bigger downwave is preparing on many levels but for now the manic depressive market is on a high producing mode which should carry on 1-3 days before a first correction comes but the tax cut extension which will find a solution in the second half of Dec will spark the final leg up.

excerpt 1

EU's Bailout Fund May Be Increased, Reynders Says in a Break With Merkel

Belgian Finance Minister Didier Reynders said the euro region could increase the size of its 750 billion-euro ($1 trillion) bailout fund, breaking ranks with German Chancellor Angela Merkel and France’s Nicolas Sarkozy .

excerpt 2

Angela Merkel Threatened To Walk On Euro In Late October, Likely To Do So Again Any Time She Does Not Get Her Way





Yet another datapoint that has been completely ignored by a market that not only does not discount future events, but is blind to current ones as well, is that, as the Guardian reported late in the day, Merkel threatened to abandon the euro during the EU summit in late October. Per the Guardian: "The German chancellor, Angela Merkel, has warned for the first time that her country could abandon the euro if she fails in her contested campaign to establish a new regime for the single currency." The paper goes on to further say that, "Merkel's central aim, which she achieved, was to win agreement on re-opening the Lisbon treaty so a permanent system of bailout funding and investor losses could be established to deal with debt crises that have laid Greece and Ireland low and are threatening Portugal and Spain. The Germans also called for bailed-out countries to lose voting rights in EU councils." And while this certainly means that Ireland will soon be left without a voice in any European discussions, much as we have expected, and under the thumb of one very corpulent and pathologically mendacious Olli Rehn, it also means the the Emerald Isle got the shortest end of the stick as it appears that future bailout will likely involve senior haircuts. But not so much in the Irish case, which may have been the last ditch effort by the multi-trillion impaired asset banking hydra in which as we showed first long ago, one's impaired assets, are another's leveraged extra-impaired liabilities.

Friday, December 3, 2010

friday brainstorming

1 .Now its getting really interesting as we have reached the April highs into the Uranus stationary - I rather expected a low here but as a matter of fact that might do the same trick after all. We are about to make a temp high between now and Monday with Uranus is even harder to say but we have reached daily Boll levels and the old highs combined with bullishness as the ISE Put/call ratio was at a multi-month high yesterday with 183. We can get a wild swing around the current level with 48h before another 5 or rather 10 % correction might start quickly is one version. The other is the expected year end rally occurs as expected with still a mild correction next week as markets could also test the weekly bolls who are 3% above current levels now. This market rises with now volume at all and is a pure hoax rally but once you are in you have to live with the tape even if it is a government sponsored scam. We have to consider wave 4 finished a wave 5 usually produces new highs compared to 3 thats the current level. Still we should get a reaction ( correction ) from these levels next week as a high into such an astro pattern means usually a turning point is at hand and the daily Bolls will slow down any upside anyway for now.
I think manic-depressive is the best way to describe the markets as it perfectly describes the markets actions. As soon as The VIX has closed below 18 once more we can expect another correction actually with more substance than the shallow last one.

excerpt

Some Cold Water In The Face Of A Manic-Depressive Market That Has Overdosed On Lithium





In an amusing turn demonstrating just how manic-depressive the market has become, stocks have gone from fearing an all out onslaught in Europe, to complete euphoria, based on a favorable ADP payroll number (which in the past several months had been broadly ignored due to its consensus misses). What is even more stunning is how the two main rumors that forced the market to surge: that Trichet was commencing a debt monetization program (refuted) and that the IMF would increase its funding contributions to Europe (mysteriously leaked by a "source" in the administration to Reuters, then also promptly refuted but only after it had already raised stocks another 50 bps) ended up being false. In the meantime we got an initial claims number that was weaker than expected, and an ISM that missed consensus, and a pending home sales that was so low it could only go higher, and which will likely result in half of the transactions falling due to the spike in mortgage rates. But hey: at least Goldman managed to boost the value of the stock portion of its bonuses, after the firm upgraded the economy, but more importantly, all banks, itself most certainly included. It is yesterday's ISM that we wanted to focus on. Much as we hate to rain on the parade, we (unlike Princeton educated Ph.D. economists) continue to firmly believe that the market does not make the economy, especially when even your cab driver knows it is all a ponzi scheme (or, rather, it's a buy the dip scheme). As John Lohman, and David Rosenberg subsequently, remind us, the spread between the inventory and the new orders components of the manufacturing ISM came at a spread unseen in over 30 years, and a phenomenon which without fail leads to at least a sub 50 print in the ISM, if not outright (re)recession.

Thursday, December 2, 2010

thursday brainstorming

1. The fact that we broke out of the consolidation pattern to the upside yesterday was a little surprise but now we are back to my first scenario where I had thought we needed still for Apple to go over 120 a last time. We are not yet finished with wave 4 is my believe as bullishness is rather accumulating still and in order to make upside the market needs to be bearish in principal. On the other hand we have massive manipulation to the upside going on but the drop of the bonds is rather an alarming factor for bulls as it undermines one core problems solution the financing of the real estate financing. It also takes away the only profits banks had as a free ride the yield curve trade which is trouble for their cheat balance sheets and most of the phony profits in all the index cheapness comes from those fake bank profits. Finally it puts the whole FED action into jeopardy as they rather accumulate more losses on their balance cheats as well.
The most important news in Dec will be the Bush tax issue when as Orzag claimed today ( before joining Citibank - guess that does not need any commenting) in a press conference all should be extended for 2 years that could already be the reason for the rally or finally be the reason why they ramp up the market once again to new highs before a big sell off starts.

2. The rally was sparked by speculation the ECB may join the FED in the grand scheme of market manipulation by declaring they will also buy whatever can be bought.

excerpt

JP Morgan On JC Trichet's Third Attempt At Pulling Off Paulson's Bazooka: Advance Thoughts On More ECB Bond Purchases





Today the market surged after it was announced that JC Trichet has finally thrown in the towel and will launch some version of "buy the everything" program made so popular by his bald transatlantic late-afternoon genocide buddy over the last two years. Subsequently the market surged more on a rumor that America would send a mega dose of viagra to make Trichet's "bazooka" even bigger by boosting America's, er, IMF contributions to what will soon be a multi-trillion bail out. Lastly the market surged some more when that last rumor was proven to be false. Which is why tomorrow at 7:45 am Eastern (with conference to follow 45 minutes later) the hapless Pinata formerly known as Jean-Claude Trichet, whose every action is now predicated by the markets, better have something good to announce or else the market will go up so more... just as it will if there is no news. So for all those who wish to know why buying stocks is a guaranteed way to make money now that nothing at all matters, here are JP Morgan's advance thoughts previewing the ECB action, as well as Greg Fuzesi's observations on additional bond purchases.

Wednesday, December 1, 2010

wednesday brainstorming - part 1

1. Whipsawing and gaping around within the consolidation pattern is rather unnerving for most traders. Well the astro pattern we have currently a Mars square to a Jupiter / Uranus conjunction rather does tell that both sides will be applied as Mars Jupiter for itself means exaggeration on one hand and Uranus makes it unpredictable and erratic. Hence volatile swings is what we can expect for markets plus we have Uranus going stationary on the 5th bringing even more volatility to the equation. On the other hand the publication of Wikileaks fits perfectly into this scenario and the best is still to come as the Mars Uranus square will become exact towards Friday. Such as patterns will usually mark relative highs or lows as a basic rule and due to the general situation that Europe is heading for big debt trouble and America in trouble markets have been quite benign so far - with a little help of market manipulation and central banks printing presses running 24/7.
We will have to break out of these consolidation patterns in USA markets and the odds are to the downside to mark a temp low as sentiments are rather bullish. The SP future had a spike potential up to 1196 for today as ISE had 2 consequential high put buying days and was short term oversold. From that level a decline should follow breaking below the 1172 which should be followed by a sell of to 1135ish level .

2. A bit pathetic the timing of the Interpol arrest warrant timing against Wikileaks frontman

excerpt

Interpol Issues International Arrest Warrant For Julian Assange For "Sex Crimes"





Per BreakingNews.com, Interpol has just issued an international arrest warrant for Julian Assange. The offense listed: SEX CRIMES. And somehow Interpol does not have access to the Internet and is unable to pull an image of the wanted criminal. Unclear if Ben Bernanke will follow suit in the same Sex Crime category for repeated involuntary fornication with the world's middle class. In other news, we are now taking odds on a dramatic, globally televized slow speed chase on a California highway in Julian Assange's future?

Following Wikileaks Revelations, The Tricky Dick Rushes To The Rescue, Sees Bank of America Worth $21 In Bankruptcy





This is certifiably one of those days when the insanity refuses to end. The latest laugh out loud episode come from the lunatic who has outstayed his "analytic" welcome by about 2 years following hisBuy recommendation on a soon to be bankrupt Lehman Brothers (sorry Dick, nobody will ever let it go): The Rochdale analyst, continues to reprise the role of the evil grandpa-in-law who just. refuses. to. leave. even though it is about 12 hours past his credibility-time, now sees Bank of America as worth $21 in bankruptcy. You really can't make this shit up. To wit: from a very funny Dick: "In death, this company would be worth 91% more than it is worth in life." You may laugh now.


About Me

I am a professional independent trader