THE DOT - if this turns orange or red be alert

Tuesday, December 7, 2010

Euro update

The support around 1.30 has done a good job so far but reached a crucial resistance on Friday challenging again today the declining resistance now at 1.34. As we are in a weekly down count now its a regular counter-move so far and if we can not break above the 1.3440 level on a closing basis the most likely scenario could be a retest of the 1.30 and follow through to 1.27 thereafter to complete the 13 counts. Right now I am a bit unsure myself but the odds are 60/40 we need to go down once again. As we are still oversold on a daily basis we have some momentum in principal for the upside but the same can be said on the downside for the weekly chart. One crucial part will be the Irish parliament today as they have to agree to the 4 year measures and we are about to get a mini correction in stocks the next days which brings a complex situation short term to culmination. Bottom line is that also Gold about to peak short term again and its hard to trade this market right now from current levels other than with assumption if we can not break the upside within 24h we rather will drop back to 1.30 and even lower.

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