THE DOT - if this turns orange or red be alert

Thursday, December 2, 2010

thursday brainstorming

1. The fact that we broke out of the consolidation pattern to the upside yesterday was a little surprise but now we are back to my first scenario where I had thought we needed still for Apple to go over 120 a last time. We are not yet finished with wave 4 is my believe as bullishness is rather accumulating still and in order to make upside the market needs to be bearish in principal. On the other hand we have massive manipulation to the upside going on but the drop of the bonds is rather an alarming factor for bulls as it undermines one core problems solution the financing of the real estate financing. It also takes away the only profits banks had as a free ride the yield curve trade which is trouble for their cheat balance sheets and most of the phony profits in all the index cheapness comes from those fake bank profits. Finally it puts the whole FED action into jeopardy as they rather accumulate more losses on their balance cheats as well.
The most important news in Dec will be the Bush tax issue when as Orzag claimed today ( before joining Citibank - guess that does not need any commenting) in a press conference all should be extended for 2 years that could already be the reason for the rally or finally be the reason why they ramp up the market once again to new highs before a big sell off starts.

2. The rally was sparked by speculation the ECB may join the FED in the grand scheme of market manipulation by declaring they will also buy whatever can be bought.

excerpt

JP Morgan On JC Trichet's Third Attempt At Pulling Off Paulson's Bazooka: Advance Thoughts On More ECB Bond Purchases





Today the market surged after it was announced that JC Trichet has finally thrown in the towel and will launch some version of "buy the everything" program made so popular by his bald transatlantic late-afternoon genocide buddy over the last two years. Subsequently the market surged more on a rumor that America would send a mega dose of viagra to make Trichet's "bazooka" even bigger by boosting America's, er, IMF contributions to what will soon be a multi-trillion bail out. Lastly the market surged some more when that last rumor was proven to be false. Which is why tomorrow at 7:45 am Eastern (with conference to follow 45 minutes later) the hapless Pinata formerly known as Jean-Claude Trichet, whose every action is now predicated by the markets, better have something good to announce or else the market will go up so more... just as it will if there is no news. So for all those who wish to know why buying stocks is a guaranteed way to make money now that nothing at all matters, here are JP Morgan's advance thoughts previewing the ECB action, as well as Greg Fuzesi's observations on additional bond purchases.

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