THE DOT - if this turns orange or red be alert

Thursday, August 19, 2010

Friday brainstorming - part 1

Against all the propaganda out there that the recession is over ı still think we are in the early stage of a depression and the full implication will be clearer after the midterm elections as the Obama boys keep massaging the truth but the mere fact that 2 of his top advisors have left recently at a critical juncture speaks volume about the situation in the oval office.


Attention Fiction Writers!

Be looking for the latest federal budget deficit update today out of Washington.

Here's a dandy trend chart which outlines the problem in case you don't feel like wading through the whole report to develop a Big Picture sense of things:

Ignore the 'extended baseline' model since that is based on lousy-t0-delusional assumptions. The CBO alternative Fiscal Scenario is more meaningful by far: See where it points to bad ---> getting to worse?

In more honest times, we'd be admitting the arrive of Depression 2. Nowadays, it's just a great recession.

If you have Excel open, build your own chart with the Fed's latest Charge-Off and Delinquency rates... freshest data here.

2. I had the same thought myself a few weeks ago especially as the release of the movie was delayed for a few months - talking about the 2nd part of Wallstreet the movie. the timing of such a movie is very interesting as the first one started my career but that is true for an entire generation probably. ı had just missed by a few cents the purchase of IBM puts 2 days before the crash my first investment which never was one as ı called the top at the point standing in front of a Reuters terminal - which was purely intuitive rather than based on any know-how.
Well in any case the launch date of the next movie will be in correlation to a market move to be remembered tells me a hunch.


"The predictive linguistics out of's "Shape of Things To Come" report have this big cloud over the global markets starting around August 24-25th...."

Now, here is where things get interesting: (Wiki Wall Street Disambiguation page)

* Wall Street (1929 film), directed by Roy William Neill (released Dec. 1, 1929) Black Tuesday was October 29, 1929. About 33 days between crash and movie release.

* Wall Street (1987 film), directed by Oliver Stone (released Dec. 11, 1987) Black Monday was October 19, 1987. About 53 days between crash and movie release.

* Wall Street: Money Never Sleeps, a 2010 film sequel to the above, directed by Oliver Stone (to be released Sept. 24, 2010). If we go 33 days, something could happen around August 22 (a Sunday) or Monday, August, 23. The average is 43 days of the 1929 and 1987 movie, the minimum is 33 days and maximum is 53 days on a spread sheet.

43 days from September 24 would have been August 12, 53 days would have been August 2, and 33 days would land on August 22.

Again, just some fun with numbers. Odd how it seems to fall on what you wrote, though.

Hmmm...Hindenburg Omen, movie schedules, yep, sure all seems to fit.

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