usdtry is about to break the 1.5310 resistance after we hold a strong support around 1.49. the tl has stayed quite strong although the situation is far from being rosy in real terms. ınflationary pressures are very high despite the official reports and turkey has deep negative interest rates. he relation with the USA is at the edge and a war with with Iran would not be added value.A referendum in 3 weeks about massive changes in the constitution will trigger tension going forward. nothing of all these facts is priced in so far thanks to massive manipulations and smartasses who think emerging markets are the smart play with their potential to decouple. well nobody can decouple from a bankrupt world but the corrupt central bankers keep the illusion alive. target for the usdtry is 1.55-6 short term as the eurusd is heading for 1.25 short term. we might even see 1.60 once again but ı suspect that eur will regain strength again as dollar strength is not an option heading for the midterm elections and for the economic stability of usa as it delivers perfect exits for china to get out of treasuries.
Tuesday, August 24, 2010
USDTRY - update
usdtry is about to break the 1.5310 resistance after we hold a strong support around 1.49. the tl has stayed quite strong although the situation is far from being rosy in real terms. ınflationary pressures are very high despite the official reports and turkey has deep negative interest rates. he relation with the USA is at the edge and a war with with Iran would not be added value.A referendum in 3 weeks about massive changes in the constitution will trigger tension going forward. nothing of all these facts is priced in so far thanks to massive manipulations and smartasses who think emerging markets are the smart play with their potential to decouple. well nobody can decouple from a bankrupt world but the corrupt central bankers keep the illusion alive. target for the usdtry is 1.55-6 short term as the eurusd is heading for 1.25 short term. we might even see 1.60 once again but ı suspect that eur will regain strength again as dollar strength is not an option heading for the midterm elections and for the economic stability of usa as it delivers perfect exits for china to get out of treasuries.
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