THE DOT - if this turns orange or red be alert

Wednesday, March 9, 2011

brainstorming wednesday

1. Gadaffi did not go for the offer and keeps bombing the rebels that can have 2 reasons - first would be he wants to sit down for negotiations with better cards as he wants to keep the wealth he has stolen from the state to some degree besides his life. The second more likely to his profile and actual astro pattern is that he feels confident to keep his position with help from China and Russia - which he will not at the end because the benign pattern is only til June ( which is rather the max. he can get from this civil war ). China on the other hand is not too happy about rising oil prices as it fuels a problem they already have at hand the inflation spike. Russia will enjoy the situation very much as they can max out their profits on oil.


excerpt



Forces loyal to Libyan leader Muammar Gaddafi have launched new air raids on the oil city of Ras Lanuf and are closing in on the western town of Az Zawiyah.
Fresh reports of rockets landing on Ras Lanuf came on Wednesday, leading to a growing concern for the city's gas facilities, which if bombed, could spell disaster for people living in the area.
Jacky Rowland, Al Jazeera's correspondent in Ras Lanuf, said fighter jets were circling overhead and the rebels were firing back.
"What we are hearing is intense and repeated attacks by Gaddafi's airplanes on the rebels," she said.
"The air force is concentrating on the big junctions at the entrance to the town. The fact that it’s such consistent black smoke could well means there is oil underneath it. It is continuing to burn.
"The opposition fighters are extremely panicked."
Khaled Kwafi, a member of the opposition forces based on the outskirts of the city, told Al Jazeera that people were killed and injured in the attack.
"An hour ago we saw warplanes in the sky. We heard very huge explosions and lots of smoke. Our people tried to go there but they were stopped," he said.
"We heard there are people killed and injured there."
Forces loyal to Gaddafi are also reported to have surrounded the rebel-held western town of Az Zawiyah, close to the capital Tripoli.
The Libyan government claims it has taken back the coastal town of Bin Jawad after heavy shelling there.
Meanwhile, in his second televised speech in as many days, Gaddafi once again alleged involvement of foreigners in the rebellion against his more than 41-year-old rule.
In an address on state TV early on Wednesday he warned of a plot to colonise Libya. As proof, he said his security forces had captured several foreigners during a raid on Monday.
"Yesterday, the mosque that the security forces regained power over, they had in this mosque, they had weapons and alcohol as well. Some of them come from Afghanistan, some of them come from Egypt, some of them come from Algeria, just to misguide our children," Gaddafi said.


2. That Bill Gross has completely sold out of Treasuries is rather alarming in the current context and proves that Government lies about inflation as stated many times. He seems to think as I assumed earlier as well that rather bonds will drag down equities. Therefor he is high on cash because opportunity will present itself once the process is triggered but first world bond markets have to price in inflation which is an ugly event once it starts.


excerpt



Exclusive: Bill Gross Dumps All Treasuries, Brings Total "Government Related" Holdings To Zero, Flees To Cash - No QE3?





And many thought Bill Gross was only posturing when he said he is getting the hell out of dodge. Based on still to be publicly reported data by Pimco's flagship Total Return Fund, the world's largest bond fund, in the month of January, has taken its bond holdings to zero(and -14% on a Duration Weighted Exposure basis). The offset, not surprisingly, is cash. After sporting $28.6 billion in "government related" securities, TRF dropped to $0.0, while its cash holdings surged from $11.9 billion to a whopping $54.5 billion (based on total TRF holdings of $236.9 billion as of February 28).This is the most cash the flagship fund has ever held, and the lowest amount in Treasury holdings since January 2009 before it was made clear that the Fed was going to adjust QE1 to include Treasurys in addition to Mortgage Backed Securities. PIMCO's Treasury holdings peaked in June 2010 at $147.4 billion and have declined consistently ever since. And while we expected that the spike in MBS holdings (at times on margin) was indicative of an expectation that QE3 would monetize mortgage backed securities, the ongoing decline in that asset class now leads us to believe that Bill Gross is now convinced there will be no QE3 at all, at least based on his just putting his money where his monthly pen is! And if Bill Gross, the most connected person to the upcoming actions by the Fed, believes there is no more quantitative easing, it is really time to get the hell out of dodge in all security classes - bonds, and most certainly, equities.

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