THE DOT - if this turns orange or red be alert

Wednesday, June 4, 2008

The next shoe about to drop with Monoliners


In his speech at Harvard he was so brave to compare the inflation situation from 1975 with todays and drew the conclusion we are better of these days. This FED guys are a strange bunch of academics how can he compare apple with watermelon. He should have had the decency to bring up the comparison with the same basket or calculation model - which would generate shocking results. Same is true for this pathetic FED model comparing stocks value with Interest level to come up with a fair stock pricing. The FED has generated an artifically low inflation figure in order to pay less interest and takes that as a basis to value stocks - give me a break.
The warning of Moody's to downgrade the Monoliner MBIA and Ambak which is more than overdue since the risk valuation of the swap traders does not even give them Investmentgrade are still at AAA the highest rating - thats unbelievable ( how can one take any of this serious anymore)
but nevertheless in the moment the Monoliner loose their AAA the AAA bonds will be downgraded as well especially the mortgage related products will force the banks to write off another big chunk of losses ( 70 Bil. is the figure in the media) but I doubt that will be enough. But its a trigger point to get our expected scenario going which is that banks need to drop further. Its not a matter if but more so when ( talking of weeks). Fitch claimed that SocGen BNP and Barclays are not sufficient capitalized - luckily enough oil sovereign funds have enough good money to through on this 'bargains' - just kidding - I suspect that some of this banks will be out of business in a few years. But that was good news for Mr Buffett who is a big share owner of Moody's since the downgrade of the competition will bring him plenty business.

SPX defended the 1370 another day but soon we will break through - the tech is still outperforming but the NDX is close to top out as well short term and might drop back to 1940/5 but before we will top out in the 2025/40 area within the next days. The vix daily chart shows clearly we are going up (minimum should be 24 level) that supports the scenario of further weakness in stocks.

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