THE DOT - if this turns orange or red be alert

Sunday, June 1, 2008

Squeeze the shorts



Nasdaq enjoyed a second strong monthly close with the end of window dressing and 2nd quarter Investment-banks finish. An astrological constellation benefits this outperformance since Jupiter is sextile to Uranus ( representing technology). We have an intermarket divergence with indices with lesser financial exposure underperforming obviously. We will have a few more positive days going into June since tomorrow is new moon in conjunction to Venus which gives a positive spin too it for a few days allthough we are slightly running into resistance even for the stronger indices. Weekly Bollingers are reached and in Tom Demark terms we have counted week 9s which is usually a sign of exhaustion and implies consolidation many other indicators signal overbought conditions short term. Expect June to be a consolidation time after the highs are set this week. NDX should retest the highs of May and likely exceed them in a narrow margin before dropping back. Financials will be a drag to SPX and DOW for the time being but the Transportation Index (see chart above) has made new highs which is in Dow theory and also in my opinion the direction we are heading too. The overall bias is buy weakness because there are some easy triggers to squeeze the shorts further and the Reps will use them. Americans are very economy sensitive since they sense the recession clearly although the government still pretends there is none but the best chance for Reps to win the the elections is to create the illusion for an upswing within the next months and Wallstreet is already gearing up the game with the recommendations to buy stocks. The part which the government will add to the game is to drop energy prices and I am pretty sure they will manage to do so in Q3 since its also in the interest of the energy companies not to get under Dems rigid authority. We have a strong alliance here and the technical state of the market will help by its own momentum. The market climbs the famous wall of worry - do not get me wrong I am not bullish because I believe in this pathetic arguments like stocks are cheap etc. - and plenty of shorts still out there even in the mildest form of underinvested long only funds and its easy to get them into the stampede - just get prices higher and they have to buy and falling oil prices will do the trick since they bring the consumer back into the game at least we will have the impression and the president agreeing to a package to stabilize the housing market ( he veto's so far) but only to sell it as their own initiative later on which we might see temporarily as well with the support of Fannie and Freddie. The odds are high we will see markets going back to their highs probably not for the SPX which might get close to it.
A democratic president especially Obama (which is close to be called soon as the candidate) will be a big threat for the establishment in so far was the statement of Mrs Clinton not so far fetched when she reminded of the Kennedy incident. The (astrological) chart of Obama shows he is going for a tough ride the next months and I suspect it will be unseen election campaign since Uranus and Saturn are heading for an exact opposition (which speaks of rebellion and revolution - establishment and conservatism against new thoughts or a quantum leap) at coincidently election day early November. A rarely event gives him also from astrological point of view a big chance to become next president since a total solar eclipse 1. August ( new moon) almost exactly on his birthday 4th August in Leo (the Kingmaker).
This month will be volatile with a negative bias and for a good short squeeze you let them first run into promising positions.
Have a good week

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I am a professional independent trader