Lehman is about to bottom out - my call was for low 20's and we will get a intermediate bottom in the 20 area. Interestingly enough this spike moves indicate usually a follow-up move. The 20,25 low of 17th march should be the low within 2-3 weeks. This will mark the low for all the US market with the DOW heading for 11700 area and the SPX for our target of 1300/10 area. The BKX has made the minimum low requirement with a TD combo 13 around 63 but the bottoming process will take another 2-3 weeks for financials. Some indicators are already getting close to severe oversold levels with the Rydex Nova/Ursa dropping from .92 to .74. As soon as we are beneath .70 levels one should be alerted. Investor Intelligence bulls dropped to 36,3% and bears surged to 37,4% that is a yellow alert level in March the figures were far more extreme with 31 bulls and 44 bears, so we have some margin still left - other more technical indicators suggest similar results we are not in red alert territory yet. Oil which needs still another 1-2 weeks to top out confirms the scenario.
Thursday, June 19, 2008
technical update for US stocks/lehman
Lehman is about to bottom out - my call was for low 20's and we will get a intermediate bottom in the 20 area. Interestingly enough this spike moves indicate usually a follow-up move. The 20,25 low of 17th march should be the low within 2-3 weeks. This will mark the low for all the US market with the DOW heading for 11700 area and the SPX for our target of 1300/10 area. The BKX has made the minimum low requirement with a TD combo 13 around 63 but the bottoming process will take another 2-3 weeks for financials. Some indicators are already getting close to severe oversold levels with the Rydex Nova/Ursa dropping from .92 to .74. As soon as we are beneath .70 levels one should be alerted. Investor Intelligence bulls dropped to 36,3% and bears surged to 37,4% that is a yellow alert level in March the figures were far more extreme with 31 bulls and 44 bears, so we have some margin still left - other more technical indicators suggest similar results we are not in red alert territory yet. Oil which needs still another 1-2 weeks to top out confirms the scenario.
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