THE DOT - if this turns orange or red be alert

Monday, August 25, 2008

insane markets part 1 (technical)

As mentioned, markets are tricky and might bring you off the track with such 'sup-rising' rallies, like on Friday. To stick to your guns though is not easy at all. The talking heads in the media say it's a great market for traders, but that proves they never had to trade for a living.

Anyway, the breakout of the wedge SPX is still valid and the next 2 weeks will be downside biased but will turn around early Sept. for a rally. The crazy move up was triggered by a Venus Uranus opposition, but that was a one day off special. On 28/9 Aug., Venus will be square Pluto, which has a negative effect and we are going into Labor Day weekend, with the broker quarter ending. The quarter will be one of the worst they had for a long time, independent from the write-offs in their mortgage books - so write-offs will be tougher, since their operational income was not good to say the least. The analysts have corrected the estimates sharply down but nevertheless the need to square books with end of Q3. window dressing might have a special effect, but more so on fixed income books with all spreads widening the risk perception rises only some people stil sell volatility.

excerpt from:

http://www.mmacycles.com/weekly-preview/mma-comments-for-the-week/comments-for-the-week-beginning-august-25,-2008/

This weekend (August 23) will find transiting Venus in opposition to Uranus. Therefore this ends yet another "translation" period where a faster moving planet (Venus) aspects the forthcoming Saturn-Uranus opposition. In this current instance, the conjunction of Venus to Saturn took place August 13, and the opposition of Venus to Uranus occurs August 23. Most of this period was down again, as most of these translation periods have been this year. There is yet another "translation" period coming up September 3-13, when the Sun will conjunct Saturn and end with its opposition to Uranus. Only this time, I am not so sure the market will fall the whole time, because during this time band, there will be a slew of important Jupiter transits too. Jupiter transits can act like a magnet, uplifting the market into its arena of influence. These will take place September 4-9, and includes the Sun trine Jupiter, Jupiter direct, and Jupiter trine Saturn.

These are not the only geocosmic signatures of importance to unfold in the next couple of weeks. On August 30, Venus will begin its geocentric ingress into Libra, which will last through September 23. This ingress has a higher than usual correlation to rallies in stocks, and lows in precious metals. However, heliocentric Mercury will transit through Sagittarius from August 27-September 8. This period usually correlates with an impressive 3-8 day rally in precious metals, and a decline in stocks. As you can see, Financial Astrologers will have their work cut out for them in these next few days, deciphering the probable path of markets during these contradictory planetary influences. We will monitor it closely in our daily reports, for things can change very quickly in the next two weeks, and price swings in many markets may be very large. That is usually the story with Jupiter and the sign it rules, Sagittarius. When there are a slew of Jupiter signatures, and planets moving through Sagittarius (heliocentric or geocentric), markets can either exhibit irrational exuberance or hysterical panic. At least this time Saturn will be involved in a trine with Jupiter, which would imply some moderation. Nevertheless, August 27-September 13 should be a most fascinating period in market behavior, according to the study of Financial Astrology. And if it is interesting in the financial markets, it is also likely to be interesting in terms of mundane and geopolitical events in the world.

Expect a zigzag move to the downside – today's market has confirmed the direction short term and the test of 1245/50 is mandatory for SPX with financials being the negative leaders.

Oil finished wave A up very volatile from 121 back down to 114, but we can expect wave C up towards 130 still - although the count might run with more zigzags.

It seems some index funds still want out since the oil market is basically very weak.

LEH has not much time left to make a move and technically the picture looks dangerous if they do not come up with a solution within one month. The next failure might be around the corner with 60 bil. in toxic stuff. Fuld is insane to demand anything above bookvalue. He has lost what makes a good trader to become a first class loser. He has no time to gamble and no jokers up his sleeves. Mr. Blankfein from Goldman will have a more comfortable situation but GS will drop at least to 140 once again this year, but actually it will be double digit within 1 year. XBD needs to drop to 110 sometime within 6 months, so keep selling any rallies in financials in one year time they will loose 50% on average from here. The 50 week MA crossed the 200 MA weeks ago, so we got plenty to go down and within one year we will see the 75/90 area. In March 2003, we had a 66 low in the XBD, which we also will see at some point.


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