THE DOT - if this turns orange or red be alert

Wednesday, August 6, 2008

technical alert - update

Basically, the scenario we drew for Q3 is developing, with a rising Dollar, falling commodities and stocks in an upside bias. Yesterday's price action came surprisingly strong and triggered a technical alert - the NDX closed at the neckline 1865 -75 of an inverse head and shoulder pattern and the SPX is kind of breaking out of a triangle pattern to the upside. Wave C up is on its way and needs to be confirmed by a weekly close above these levels but, ideally, a confirmation by a higher close today as well. Since yesterday was a particularly upside day an 'inside day' is one option but, in any case, we need to stay strong for the rest of the week to open the way for the 1325-40 target. Analysts estimates are a waste of time since FNM and FRE had to produce bigger losses under these circumstances, but we still need to see how the market, especially financials, deal with it today. Exceptions like Ms. Whitney and a handful others are to be treated as exceptions to the rule.

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