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Thursday, August 14, 2008

technical update - full moon effect

Oil made a perfect low together with the CRB and will now make a wave B upside correction of at least 50% to 130 within 2 weeks.
Stocks will react a bit delayed since the full moon on Friday with the Venus Trigon Jupiter for the 3-4 days will create the illusion of a positive bias and stocks will close higher for the week. Do not fall into the trap since the last two days showed how vulnrable we still are and starting next week a more severe downside correction is due for 2 weeks. Especially financials will be in distress with oil-sensitive stocks like airlines will have a severe correction. We also enter now the final two weeks for the Broker quarters - so they make try to window dress positions or have to figure out how to survive in this tough trading enviremont.
Around next new moon the final upleg for this year ( very likely) should start with the next down wave of oil, with the SPX heading for the 1340 target.
After reaching 1325 or only retesting 1315 we should drop back to 1200 within 2 weeks with financials being a driving negative factor.

If we cannot make a higher high to the May highs around 1440 this time (very unlikely) we know the next big downleg is due in Q4 heading for 1160 (50%) or even 1075 (61.8%) SPX. Putting it into a bigger context in monthly charts first wave down were 300 points so the next leg down should make at least that distance giving a target of 1130 . Also looking at indicators from a monthly perspective shows where we stand with the MACD just crossing the 0 line for now. Oct. 2002 respectively Mar. 2003 the same one was at -100, so in a bigger context we are still far away from being oversold or having seen a capitulation for a regular recession.

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