THE DOT - if this turns orange or red be alert

Tuesday, August 12, 2008

technical update for week

Oil is close to its low of wave A - we need at least today but it may take the rest of the week as well. The Euro is almost trading in sink will bottom out around 1.4550/6 within 2-3 days. The astrological impact of the military invasion will intensify towards the weekend due to the full moon (lunar eclipse) and Mars/Pluto square on Saturday. Before that we will have a mini pullback on Wednesday with a Venus /Saturn conjunction, but we should close the week higher again with the NDX almost at target at 1975 and SPX at 1325 for August. VIX below 20? is an indication that market is too reluctant for the time being, but until the end of September, we might even test the 15 level again.

The last two weeks of August will be on the downside again, with oil sensitive stocks and financials being the leading negative force. Tech will give back some ground as well but the second wave down in oil towards 100 will bring another upleg in stocks in September - we refer to that when the time is come.

No idea who buys Amazon up to those levels (totally overvalued) but keep in mind the Citi analyst gave kindle's higher sales as a reason - well in September AAPL may show up with its competing product and that will put a clear challenge since it's going to be more sophisticated as usual - that might be a good short soon.

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