One truth about housing - no 'expert' knows

This housing situation is already unprecedented. Still, keep in mind that this happens with very moderate jobless numbers of 6.1% - Goldman says 8% is due next year, the new Guru Bill Gates claims 9% and I, as a humble student of astrology, (we are heading for a similar pattern like we had in 1930) say we are lucky if we stay below 10%. In any case, the housing situation is going to get worse - I am not happy to make such predictions at all, but as the facts turn out they confirm the prognosis.

Excerpt

http://www.cnbc.com/id/27324511

The second similarity that strikes me is the positively bewildered expressions on the faces of the chief economists of both associations. These poor guys are tasked with telling everyone when it's all going to get better, and the fact of the matter is they just don't know. Don't get me wrong, these are supersmart guys, number crunchers with decades in the business, but as NAHBs David Seiders said, the risk in housing right now is just so high that it makes forecasting extremely difficult.

• Freddie Mac's Empty-House Mystery
• Fannie Fires Back On Not Helping Home Owners

The chief economist at Fannie Mae, Doug Duncan, spoke to the builders conference today and reminded folks here that forecasts are based on trends in history i.e., how did similar circumstances result in the past? But, as he astutely points out, there is no historical data, no past trend, no previous parameters by which to judge today's scenario. Never before were there so many borrowers who put down no equity, so many who declined to state income, so many with negative amortization loans.

In other words, and again with my utmost respect for the economists, before any one of you out there try to gauge, bet on or hedge the housing market, understand that not one thing any expert or cab driver predicts about housing today is a safe assumption as to what housing is truly going to look like a year from today.