The SOX index is one of the core parts of the NDX and therefore a good indicator in evaluating the overall picture. The first big wave down from July 2007 to March 2009 had a magnitude of 260 points. The current wave has a magnitude of 200 points so far. It is not necessary that the length of waves are equal - just to put it into proportion. The pattern I call personally a head and shoulder, although it is not in classic terms, gives a target of 230 we were at 223 so far. The final fact is the October 2002 low was 209. MY bottom line is that we need a final dive into the 210/20 area before the bigger counter-trend rally can start. The chart above is a weekly one and the daily confirms that we need 3 consecutive lower closes below 230 on a daily basis to complete this leg. Again, all adds up to the same conclusion - so be patient and do not rush in if you want to buy.
Friday, October 17, 2008
SOX (semiconductor index) technical outlook
The SOX index is one of the core parts of the NDX and therefore a good indicator in evaluating the overall picture. The first big wave down from July 2007 to March 2009 had a magnitude of 260 points. The current wave has a magnitude of 200 points so far. It is not necessary that the length of waves are equal - just to put it into proportion. The pattern I call personally a head and shoulder, although it is not in classic terms, gives a target of 230 we were at 223 so far. The final fact is the October 2002 low was 209. MY bottom line is that we need a final dive into the 210/20 area before the bigger counter-trend rally can start. The chart above is a weekly one and the daily confirms that we need 3 consecutive lower closes below 230 on a daily basis to complete this leg. Again, all adds up to the same conclusion - so be patient and do not rush in if you want to buy.
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