On the left hand, we have the DOW chart of OCT/NOV 1929. Yesterday I used the actual one - they look about 90% the same and we are today where I set the arrow. It does confirm my assumption that one more new low trough is due, which is the way lows are made usually. A final burst of fear to fool (test) the ones who were 'smart' enough to buy the lows. Yesterday's low volume up day is not convincing. These days we have a lot artificial intervention but still the markets have their own momentum. We have to follow closely this week's price action, since it should be overall weaker later this week. Basically we have 2 variations of the same theme. Even we make the trough now within the next 2-3 weeks and even many single stock charts are hinting to that. Or we make the 74/5 version, which was Oct. trough and Jan. retest. We have to be on alert and follow closely - the sell off in the VIX was a bit premature for my taste, although the Libor crisis is solved for now and that brings the risk in the financial system to a smoother level with all the state guarantees.
Tuesday, October 21, 2008
Tracking the DOW of 1929 - technical outlook for now
On the left hand, we have the DOW chart of OCT/NOV 1929. Yesterday I used the actual one - they look about 90% the same and we are today where I set the arrow. It does confirm my assumption that one more new low trough is due, which is the way lows are made usually. A final burst of fear to fool (test) the ones who were 'smart' enough to buy the lows. Yesterday's low volume up day is not convincing. These days we have a lot artificial intervention but still the markets have their own momentum. We have to follow closely this week's price action, since it should be overall weaker later this week. Basically we have 2 variations of the same theme. Even we make the trough now within the next 2-3 weeks and even many single stock charts are hinting to that. Or we make the 74/5 version, which was Oct. trough and Jan. retest. We have to be on alert and follow closely - the sell off in the VIX was a bit premature for my taste, although the Libor crisis is solved for now and that brings the risk in the financial system to a smoother level with all the state guarantees.
Subscribe to:
Post Comments (Atom)
No comments:
Post a Comment