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Friday, October 24, 2008

VIX outlook

The VIX index almost reached 90 with marking the 12 count finally today. The scare factor is high but the market is acting moderate. Although a loss of 5% on a day is still a big deal and we are now used to these insane daily moves of 5 and more on a daily basis. To get rid of these insane market moves the market needs some structural
leadership by the authorities. So far, mostly patchwork has been delivered and a regular flow of money in the industry has not been accomplished. Banks are awash with liquidity but hesitate to lend it or rather to send it somewhere because it might get caught in the act. We need to mark the 13, which is an indication that a temp low is very close but, as mentioned before, some other factors need to add to have a complete picture and reliable picture at least for the time being.

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