THE DOT - if this turns orange or red be alert

Monday, October 13, 2008

Morgan Stanley saved by a "generous" Mitsubishi

Morgan Stanley was only worth $10 bil. at Fridays market close and Mitsubishi could have bought the whole joint for $9 bil., as Morgan Stanley would have done very likely if the situation would have been the other way around. It was either the generous wisdom of Japanese business ethics or they are not of the kind of shrewd bankers as we know them and I can confirm they are basically not bankers by genetic means. I doubt that MS will go above 25 anytime soon, since most of their income sources are dead or about to be. Once the dust settles and we see what's left, I am afraid there will not be much left - no business for easy money anyway and since we likely are marching into a depression or at least prolonged and severe recession, earnings will melt as ice in the sun. One year ago, Morgan got a capital injection of some proportion as well and Mr Mack (CEO) spent that money by increasing the bonus pool by 20% - absolutely pathetic and without any prudence, since the crisis was already around.

The last Bonaza, if not supervised correctly, will be the TARP and GSE (Fannie, Freddie) 'buy $40 bil. of toxic assets a month' agenda of the current administration, where reckless players can make money on the back of taxpayers. That should be avoided by any means. I am afraid the governments do not have the means to control the process, since very few people understand the asset class.

Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group Inc. said it has closed its $9 billion purchase of a 21% interest in U.S. investment bank Morgan Stanley on Monday, keeping the outline of the proposed deal intact but sweetening key aspects for the Japanese banking giant.

The two financial firms have been under pressure to change terms of the deal because MUFG's original investment for 21% of the firm was agreed to before Morgan Stanley shares plunged more than 50%.

Under the revised terms, MUFG has acquired $7.8 billion of convertible preferred stock with a 10% dividend and a conversion price of $25.25 per share, and $1.2 billion of non-convertible preferred stock with a 10% dividend. Previously, MUFG was getting a mix of preferred and common shares.

Today's rally in MS and GS stocks is what I meant for shorts to be careful after making daily 13s

No comments:


About Me

I am a professional independent trader