The VIX made the Seq 13, which at these extreme levels is a good message. We have underlying a Combo count at 8, requiring at least 4 higher closes but that can also happen in wave 5. Even the VIX weekly is steeply above the Bollinger bands still. We might see a final move above 60 within the next 3-4 weeks but thereafter expect a sharp decline respectively a wild short covering rally in stocks. Financials remain under severe stress with the Libor rate at new highs - I will make an analysis of the BKX later, which is poised to go lower short term.
Thursday, October 9, 2008
VIX makes another step towards a temp bottom
The VIX made the Seq 13, which at these extreme levels is a good message. We have underlying a Combo count at 8, requiring at least 4 higher closes but that can also happen in wave 5. Even the VIX weekly is steeply above the Bollinger bands still. We might see a final move above 60 within the next 3-4 weeks but thereafter expect a sharp decline respectively a wild short covering rally in stocks. Financials remain under severe stress with the Libor rate at new highs - I will make an analysis of the BKX later, which is poised to go lower short term.
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