The daily EURYEN charts looks perfectly as the most stock market charts look these days. It also had a decent corrective rally from lower 10s to 30. We still need to go lower in weekly terms - far lower - but that is more a theme for 2009. Still for 2008, we need to complete the current down leg and at least have to drop back below 120 but even towards 110 to complete this leg. We might have a little retest of 130 but rather could sink lower right away that we might figure out by Wednesday. The seq count is the least we need to see completed to have a possible rally but the odds are not in favor as many funds need to liquidate and all the unprecedented historic proportion bailout programs can not get the markets rising. Hence the managers get more and more nervous as they want to sell at better levels but as time runs out and markets do not come up, especially without volume the struggle to sell. Although the media wants to drum up a bull campaign, nobody has the money or nerves to buy except the famous last resort (governments - who can just print the money to do so). Year end has a big psychological impact on the negative side this year, as Banks close their books at the end of November and Hedge Funds, regular funds must sell. That was the big mistake of the Government to ban short selling on financials - since people are much lesser prepared to be short, as they can be squeezed out, but they are always the first and best buyers of bear markets as the cover their positions.
Monday, November 10, 2008
Stock markets and the EURYEN technical outlook
The daily EURYEN charts looks perfectly as the most stock market charts look these days. It also had a decent corrective rally from lower 10s to 30. We still need to go lower in weekly terms - far lower - but that is more a theme for 2009. Still for 2008, we need to complete the current down leg and at least have to drop back below 120 but even towards 110 to complete this leg. We might have a little retest of 130 but rather could sink lower right away that we might figure out by Wednesday. The seq count is the least we need to see completed to have a possible rally but the odds are not in favor as many funds need to liquidate and all the unprecedented historic proportion bailout programs can not get the markets rising. Hence the managers get more and more nervous as they want to sell at better levels but as time runs out and markets do not come up, especially without volume the struggle to sell. Although the media wants to drum up a bull campaign, nobody has the money or nerves to buy except the famous last resort (governments - who can just print the money to do so). Year end has a big psychological impact on the negative side this year, as Banks close their books at the end of November and Hedge Funds, regular funds must sell. That was the big mistake of the Government to ban short selling on financials - since people are much lesser prepared to be short, as they can be squeezed out, but they are always the first and best buyers of bear markets as the cover their positions.
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