The SPX daily chart is clearly in a consolidation pattern - that's not the way a low looks at all. Hence, we need to break to the downside and test the 2002 low area of 770-800 to mark a second capitulation before a bigger relief rally can start. That would mark the end of wave A or bigger 3 down (not sure about the count but that does not change that the market needs to do). The SPX today has a SEQ 12 count, the NDX stays with the SEQ 12 so far. The SPX is now getting close to the 855/60 support, which might hold at first attempt but it's just a matter of time not if we break below. The market wants another capitulation as too many who need to give up before the market can rise look for a rally now for a little while already. Volume is moderate still while the VIX climbs towards 70- being at 66 now. The BKX made it below 50 but a retest of the 46 level is mandatory as some member stocks have a way to go down.
Wednesday, November 12, 2008
SPX technical update - market update
The SPX daily chart is clearly in a consolidation pattern - that's not the way a low looks at all. Hence, we need to break to the downside and test the 2002 low area of 770-800 to mark a second capitulation before a bigger relief rally can start. That would mark the end of wave A or bigger 3 down (not sure about the count but that does not change that the market needs to do). The SPX today has a SEQ 12 count, the NDX stays with the SEQ 12 so far. The SPX is now getting close to the 855/60 support, which might hold at first attempt but it's just a matter of time not if we break below. The market wants another capitulation as too many who need to give up before the market can rise look for a rally now for a little while already. Volume is moderate still while the VIX climbs towards 70- being at 66 now. The BKX made it below 50 but a retest of the 46 level is mandatory as some member stocks have a way to go down.
Subscribe to:
Post Comments (Atom)
No comments:
Post a Comment