The SPX has made the snap back rally and is already running out of steam. we can except a bit more upside though s we rise we qıite some volume now but that might be due to the assumption we had a double bottom. I agree that the test of the 770 level was an essential part for a real low to establish I expected as well but some other aspects need to click in as well. so far we have an inside week that is usually not how a real trough is made and on a monthly basis we are severly below last months close - only a close above 970 would change that and not likely at all. we are even still below monthly Bollinger at current level which are quite negative aspects. Not to mention that all the counts are not complete especially weekly ones. all we have is a snap back rally after a deep decline which is a regular thing to happen. So do not get to excited you did not miss the real thing yet. Basically we will see another dip starting early Dec as we are heading for the window dressing month end and for brokers yearend manipulations. The carry trades (Yen) are not done either so we have still some Hedge Fund selling ahead - the only change for now is some real buyers are now in but that does not mean they make the right choices.
Tuesday, November 25, 2008
SPX technical update
The SPX has made the snap back rally and is already running out of steam. we can except a bit more upside though s we rise we qıite some volume now but that might be due to the assumption we had a double bottom. I agree that the test of the 770 level was an essential part for a real low to establish I expected as well but some other aspects need to click in as well. so far we have an inside week that is usually not how a real trough is made and on a monthly basis we are severly below last months close - only a close above 970 would change that and not likely at all. we are even still below monthly Bollinger at current level which are quite negative aspects. Not to mention that all the counts are not complete especially weekly ones. all we have is a snap back rally after a deep decline which is a regular thing to happen. So do not get to excited you did not miss the real thing yet. Basically we will see another dip starting early Dec as we are heading for the window dressing month end and for brokers yearend manipulations. The carry trades (Yen) are not done either so we have still some Hedge Fund selling ahead - the only change for now is some real buyers are now in but that does not mean they make the right choices.
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