THE DOT - if this turns orange or red be alert

Friday, November 14, 2008

EURYEN tech outlook - the indicator for the deleveraging

The EURYEN daily chart suggests the immediate deleveraging wave is not finished yet. We had a substantial bounce from the lows but are clearly heading back for a retest and rather make new lows to finish wave 5 of 3. In a bigger context, as big wave 5 we will have to retest even 100 but before that wave 4 up will be due. The current downwards momentum confirms though that markets in general are not finished with their lows as well. It may also reflect a diversification of central banks to other currencies as the interest rates will be all alike soon - close to 0 as the credit crunch requires 0 rates for banks to recover (which is wrong in my opinion, as they do not pass low interest rates to consumers). In any case, the YEN gets overvalued by far as the rise in the currency is purely technical and has no fundamental basis. Hence, we can look for a substantial bounce (in Yen terms drop) once the selling pressure of Hedge Funds is out of the way.

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