The DOW daily is the lagging index as it only counts a daily SEQ 10 today. That needs to be completed, hence we need to drop at least to 8000 - as here as well a new low makes a low, even a bit lower. The signs are hinting to some sort of low around this weekend in general as many exhaustion counts accumulate but we do not have the big picture low scenario yet. Crucial is also, as we are at the lows for some indices (more the tech ones making slightly new ones), the deadline for a new round of hedge fund redemptions at the 15th Nov. will likely trigger another round of big redemptions. That should hold the market on "sell the rally" mode til year end. Basically, as the crude oil slump brings even the cash 'rich ' sovereign funds in trouble - be careful with buying sprees. Next weeks option expiration might cause a little upside move though as due to high volatility also short puts are out in size.
Thursday, November 13, 2008
DOW tech update - market update
The DOW daily is the lagging index as it only counts a daily SEQ 10 today. That needs to be completed, hence we need to drop at least to 8000 - as here as well a new low makes a low, even a bit lower. The signs are hinting to some sort of low around this weekend in general as many exhaustion counts accumulate but we do not have the big picture low scenario yet. Crucial is also, as we are at the lows for some indices (more the tech ones making slightly new ones), the deadline for a new round of hedge fund redemptions at the 15th Nov. will likely trigger another round of big redemptions. That should hold the market on "sell the rally" mode til year end. Basically, as the crude oil slump brings even the cash 'rich ' sovereign funds in trouble - be careful with buying sprees. Next weeks option expiration might cause a little upside move though as due to high volatility also short puts are out in size.
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