THE DOT - if this turns orange or red be alert

Monday, March 30, 2009

A different tech outlook - big market manipulation going on

March 27 2009 CNBC SQUAWKBOX EUROPE

LET’S LOOK AT THE S&P 500 INDEX

Two weeks ago on Squawk Box I said stocks looked good and the index would rally 12 trading days then we’d have to assess it again. Yesterday was the 13th trading day of the rally so here’s the assessment. As we discussed last week, if this were a last leg down in the bear campaign the time of that leg would be either 60 to 64 days or 90 to 99 days from the January high. The low was 60 days from that high and 90 days from the December 8th high which was very important because many stocks including the financials hit their highs on that date. The index was then 90 days form the December high and since 90 is a completion cycle for many stocks it carried a strong probability of ending the leg down.

If the rally could exceed 3/8 of that leg down it was sufficient confirmation the leg down was complete and there would be a strong rally into the 12th trading day.

This vibration in time should continue so there are three important time windows the next two months. The 6th/7th of April at 30 days from low and 90 and 120 from highs. If the index goes down into that “time” with a 3 to 5 day move down it would be bullish and present a low. If the index goes up into that date with a distribution pattern it could indicate a run at the March lows. The next important time window would be around the 20th of April at 45 calendar days from low and then 60 calendar days around the 6th of May.

If this is an end to the bear the index will either build a base that will take out to May 6th as it did in 1938 or the index will test the March low. This has been the largest month up since October 1974.

SO LET’S LOOK AT OCTOBER 1974 IN THE S&P 500 INDEX


The low to the 1973/1974 bear campaign was October and December. During 1974 the index found low in October and ran up into an early November high and turned down on the 32nd calendar day from low. But there was a very obvious distribution pattern going into the 30 day time window. So far our current circumstance doesn’t show a distribution. It then went down 32 days and provided a higher low at 45 days from high. The Dow Jones Industrials moved to a marginal new low below October in December 1974 creating a bullish divergence between the two indexes.

I am confident of the time periods, it will simply depend up how the index goes into those time windows to determine if the bear campaign is complete and if it will build a base of retest the March low.


Disclaimer: All the reports and content in the entire McLaren Report web site (including this report) are for educational purposes only and do not constitute trading advice nor an invitation to buy or sell securities. The views are the personal views of the author. Before acting on any of the ideas expressed, the reader should seek professional advice to determine the suitability in view of his or her personal circumstances.

We are in one of the biggest market manipulation I have seen in 24 years watching the markets.
At the low we had huge call buyers and an ISEE of 220 - never seen that before and this Friday the insiders sold just before the bad news hit the market and the ISEE was at the lower end - that is against all odds and logic and confirms that we have a huge manipulation going on.
Overall it does not change the outlook as described earlier a pullback was overdue and we are now definitely in wave B a bit earlier then I thought as I expected that to happen later this week. The next 2 weeks the markets are vulnerable as Geithner times things in a very obscure way and obvious way as some insiders happen to know his claims earlier than public. I want to see how this day goes before I write my assumptions for today.


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