THE DOT - if this turns orange or red be alert

Thursday, March 5, 2009

SPX tech update - general evaluation

SPX counts today a daily 11 in a weekly 13 after marking a daily seq 13 yesterday. The Dow makes its second daily combo 13 today so very briefly around Monday likely we can look for a strong upside correction as we are far below weekly Bolls.
Two things are disturbing still as the NDX broke out of a pattern and clearly needs to rest the 1000 level before the big rally starts. The second is that in any severe trough the ISEE 10 day MA at least needs to be around 100 that takes time as we are as of yesterday at 121 and for an average to come down that far we need some downside action and more time to develop. We might have a wild zigzag pattern going forward trending still a bit lower and it could take another 2-3 weeks to make the real low. We still have a 10 % downside risk short term ( actually the overall risk is 50% due to valuations) . İts gonna be tricky as we need some more negativity and VIX should reach the 60 level. Commodities also indicate with Oil it might take another 3 weeks overall but we might get still a brief rally next week as we are heading for an ugly Full Moon on Tuesday.

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