Goldman Sachs Says Abby Cohen to Stop Making S&P 500 Forecasts
By Lynn Thomasson
March 17 (Bloomberg) -- Abby Joseph Cohen, the most bullish investment strategist on Wall Street this year, will stop making Standard & Poor's 500 Index forecasts for Goldman Sachs Group Inc.
She was succeeded in the role by David Kostin, Goldman's U.S. investment strategist, spokesman Ed Canaday said in a telephone interview. Kostin today predicted the S&P 500 may fall 10 percent to 1,160 before rebounding to 1,380 by year's end. Cohen, as chief investment strategist, last predicted the benchmark for American equities would end 2008 at 1,675, representing a 32 percent rally from its current level.
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The Standard & Poor's 500 could hit 1,050 within the next year even as the economy struggles to recover, noted Goldman Sachs analyst Abby Joseph Cohen told CNBC.
Abby Joseph Cohen |
As the stock market improves, gross domestic product probably will turn positive by the second half of the year, but only modestly as it registers gains of 1 to 2 percent, Cohen said in a live interview.
"The S&P and the Dow will be moving like a staircase," she said. "We've seen a 35 percent lift from the bottom and we may be stuck here for a while in a higher trading range as we await more fundamental news."
That incremental movement higher could result in a 15 percent gain for the S&P by mid-2010.
The forecast ups the ante from the most recent projection made by Cohen in April, when she told CNBC that the S&P could hit 900 by the end of the year.
"We think the fundamental information will get better gradually, and so a staircase pattern moving higher six to 12 months from now (with the ) S&P between 1,000 and 1,050 even with very modest profit expectations," Cohen added.
The economic recovery is likely to be uneven, she said. Inventories will increase as businesses see demand improve gradually, while areas of the housing market that suffered the most probably will be the first to recover, she said.
"I don't want to say that that it is looking good but clearly it's not falling off the cliff as it had been previously, and that is making investors feel more comfortable," Cohen said.
Addressing the question of inflation, Cohen said it is not likely to be a problem soon but said in a few years oil prices could become an issue again. However, analysts at Goldman believe oil prices are "somewhat ahead of themselves" and likely to back up.
3 weeks ago Goldman with Morgan Stanley warned to be cautious Morgan Stanley even said sell and the official strategist of Goldman declares now at the high almost that he takes banks from underweight to neutral - give me a freaking break after the index doubled you get the smart pants on. Banks are expensive now and the profits they made with a lot of cooking the books is not repeatable or sustainable as MS Whitney put absolutely correctly
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David Kostin, a Goldman Sachs strategist, upgraded his rating on financial stocks to “neutral” from “underweight” today, citing the economic stimulus package and better-than- estimated results from banks during the first quarter. The U.S. government and the Federal Reserve have spent, lent or committed at least $12.8 trillion to help end the worst financial crisis since the Great Depression, according to Bloomberg data.
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