The current upmove is just a trap and a natural reflex as everything in the order of math and physics does move in certain patterns and is not linear. We are now in a 4-5 month reflex move up which should end around Aug.
The FED's purchase program of Treasuries has failed as was foreseeable and rates are rising again besides the fact that they are loosing taxpayer money ( the bonds are lower than the prices they paid and at some point the steepening curve is not good for the banks as well as they need a steep curve but a stable one to generate taxpayer sponsored profits. As prices fall they generated losses since they are long the longer end of the curve. At the same time refinancing mortgages has become expensive again the rates are back to old levels although the FED has put tril. of taxpayer money at risk. While the foreclosures are rising even in the prime sector adding to the toxic assets more toxic assets and bringing the other ones under price pressure. Rising long term rates are very dangerous since it can spiral easily in more losses with foreigners pulling out of Dollar assets as they loose on both ends currency and value.
The consumers are not a good benchmark at all as they are the easiest to manipulate and the sentiment does not indicate their economic behaviour since every lost job adds to the negative momentum and the Obama administration has not manufactured flowing credit but bailed out banks and made their clients in Wallstreet happy with tril. of taxpayer money against of the public noise they made on the media nothing has changed.
Consumer Sentiment Reaches Highest Level in Eight Months
U.S. consumer confidence improved in May to its highest level since last September, prompted by hopes the government's economic stimulus program will bring the economy out of recession.
Analysts monitor consumer sentiment as a leading gauge of consumer spending, which accounts for about 70 percent of U.S. economic activity.
The Reuters/University of Michigan Surveys of Consumers said its final May reading on consumer sentiments was 68.7, higher than an early May figure of 67.9 and a final April reading of 65.1.
"Compared with the state of the economy six months ago, consumers have indeed regained a good measure of confidence," Richard Curtin, director of the surveys, said in a statement.