THE DOT - if this turns orange or red be alert

Thursday, May 14, 2009

It ain't over whatever the propaganda machine of the media tries to ..

An iron rule of every bubble or extreme before you have a real bottom it needs to see an exaggeration to the other side. That is as true for real estate prices as it is for stock prices and we have not seen such a level for any asset yet (probably commodities have). T2 partners has a really good piece of research on that I have published that on earlier post but to give you the bottom line house prices need to drop another 20% approx. to come back to the 'normal' point of affordability which is around 2.5 times income. The regular extreme reflex of markets would be to overshoot by 15-20% before we can call it a bottom.
If you take that for granted which it will be at some point imagine the trouble ahead for banks as they have digested up to now just a drop below 20% so far loosing 1.45 trillion and the so called stress test does not consider a scenario like this at all. On top all governments have used almost all bullets they had its pretty much like General Custer's situation - the inevitable thing will be hyperinflation as they keep printing money or the big governments going bust as my assumption is closer to 10 trillion of losses as we see the real picture in 2 years.

The Man Who Shorted Subprime: Commercial Real Estate Not a Buy
Published: Thursday, 14 May 2009 | 1:35 PM ET

The man made famous by his bets against subprime mortgages, billionaire Jeff Greene, remains pessimistic about American consumers and the outlook for commercial real estate.

"I'm very pessimistic about the economy," Greene said in an interview with CNBC's "Squawk Box." "...We're in a difficult time."

Oliver Quillia for cnbc.com

According to Greene, commercial real estate deals have yet to reach truly distressed levels.

"There is a still a huge disconnect between what sellers are asking for properties and what buyers are willing to pay. There are no deals yet," he said, adding that it is likely that by the time deals come along, everyone will be "so beat up they won't want to buy."

As for real estate investment trusts, he thinks they are a "slow-speed train wreck."

Greene expects REITs will be hit by a "triple-whammy" that includes tenants renewing leases at highly reduced rents, higher financing costs and equity dilution.

The backdrop for Greene's outlook is the opinion that the U.S. could suffer through a five-to-seven year period of slow growth.

"We just had this huge, huge ten-year party," Greene said. "I think that basically what Americans did was not live off their income; they lived off their assets...now we're cleaning up this mess, and I think the consumer is shell-shocked."

Greene expects it will be a long time before Americans are willing to jump back in and get leveraged again.

According to investor Philip Blumberg, who appeared on CNBC with Greene, the real troubles for the commercial real estate market have yet to materialize.

Blumberg, who is the CEO of Blumberg Capital Partners, said the real story is the outstanding debt in this market.

"Think about this: In the next three years, 2010 — that's when it really starts — to 2013, we've got about $300 billion in (commercial mortgage-backed securities), of which $70 to $100 billion is not refinanceable. But to put it in real perspective, on top of this is $1 trillion in bank loans written in the same timeframe, with the same dubious underwriting, coming due in that period."

Blumberg expects this wave of debt will be a "real blow to the belly of the banking sector."

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